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Herding >>>          Social Visioning >>>          Sudden Wave of Violence >>>          Woman Gain Dominance >>>          Cultural Trends >>>          Financial Man >>>

 

 
 

 

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2017-06-28

 

 

 

Forecasting With The Elliott Wave Principle

 

S&P500 EURUSD DAX Nikkey225

 

 

 

 
Fibonacci
 

S&P 500,Jun 28,2017                                  >>>         - Tipping point ! 

EURUSD,Jun 28,2017                                 >>>           Thrust Out Of Triangle
DAX DYU17, Jun 27,2017                           >>>           Fibonacci, [a]gain
S&P 500,Jun 23,2017                                  >>>         - Dangerous...!!!
EURUSD,Jun 23,2017                                 >>>           Watch ML
DAX DYU17,Jun 22,2017                            >>>           Ending DT
Nikkey 225,Jun 21,2017                             >>>            Ending DT
 
 


What Impact Does Terrorism Have on the Stock Market?
2017, Matthew Lampert, Video

Matt Lampert, director of research at the Socionomics Institute, sheds 
some light on the relationship between terror attacks and the markets 
and tells you what to watch out for in the future, all in this 3-minute interview.
Alexandra Lienhard: First Manchester and now London Bridge. 
Add to that attacks earlier this year in Paris and Stockholm and 
many other terrorist- related incidents. While certainly of secondary importance, a question some might have is what impact does terrorism have on the stock market?
Joining me today to offer some perspective is Matt Lampert, the Director of Research at the Socionomics Institute. Hi, Matt. What can you tell us about the correlation between terrorism and the stock market?

(Source: socionomics.net)

 


Five Waves Up & Bearish Divergence - 

SPX - 
10min. Chart,  © ELLIOTT today, June 09,2017 >>>

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"BREXIT - EXIT?"

Five Waves Up -  Five Waves Down
GBPUSD - 
60min. Chart >>>  
© ELLIOTT today, posted   June 12,2017

 
 

Example of Gann's Death Zone >>>

Die Wissenschaft entdeckt das Elliott Wave Principle >>>

         

Socionomics
 


[Article] How to Apply Socionomics Properly
2011, Alan Hall, Article, Socionomics Theory, The Socionomist
By Alan Hall, originally published in the September 2011 Socionomist

While socionomic theory is relatively straightforward, applying it can be a challenge. Expressions of social mood vary in myriad ways, and often they are difficult to measure. Misapplying socionomics can lead not only to errors but also to misconceptions about the theory’s utility. >>>

 

 

 


The Socionomic Angle

By now you may have surmised that the findings relate
to socionomics. They provide one more example of
social mood’s impact on group behavior. Why would
financial reporters’ expressions resemble each other 
more when positive mood was increasing and less 
when negative mood was increasing? The Wave
Principle of Human Social Behavior (HSB) offers 
a good place to start: “A waxing positive social 
mood appears to correlate with a collective increase
in concord ... a desire for togetherness ... and feelings
of alignment with others. A waxing negative social
mood appears to correlate with a collective increase
in discord ... a desire to separate from others ... and
feelings of opposition to others” (p. 228). So, perhaps
in times of increasing social mood, the herd is happily
scribing together in many similar ways. When 
negative mood is increasing, the herd is panicking
together in many diverse way.

 [The Socionomist April 2012]    >>>

 

Cultural Trends                      >>>

Financial Man                       >>>  

Herding                                 >>>

Social Visioning                   >>>

Sudden Wave of Violence   >>>

Women Gain Dominance     >>>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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R.N.Elliott's Market Letters

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


Ralph Nelson Elliott >>>

 

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The Wave Principle  is unparalleled in providing an overall perspective on the position of the market most of the time. Most important to individuals, portfolio managers
and investment corporations is that the Wave Principle often indicates in advance the relative magnitude of the next period of market progress or regress. 
Living in harmony with those trends can make the difference between success and failure in financial affairs. 


Despite the fact that many analysts do not treat it as such, the Wave Principle is by all means an objective study, or as Collins put it, "a disciplined form of technical analysis." 
Bolton used to say that one of the hardest things he had to learn was to believe what he saw. If the analyst does not believe what he sees, he is likely to read into his analysis what he thinks 
should be there for some other reason. At this point, his count becomes subjective. Subjective analysis is dangerous and destroys the value of any market approach. What the Wave Principle 
provides is an objective means of assessing the relative probabilities of possible future paths for the market.  At any time, two or more valid wave interpretations are usually acceptable by the
rules of the Wave Principle. The rules are highly specific and keep the number of valid alternatives to a minimum.  Among the valid alternatives, the analyst will generally regard as preferred the
interpretation that satisfies the largest number of guidelines, and so on. As a result, competent analysts applying the rules and guidelines of the Wave Principle objectively should usually agree
on the order of probabilities for various possible outcomes at any particular time. That order can usually be stated with certainty. Let no one assume, however, that certainty about the order of 
probabilities is the same as certainty about one specific outcome. Under only the rarest of circumstances does the analyst ever know exactly what the market is going to do. 

One must understand and accept that even an approach that can identify high odds for a fairly specific outcome will be wrong some of the time. Of course, such a result is a far better performance 
than any other approach to market forecasting provides. Using Elliott, it is often possible to make money even when you are in error. For instance, after a minor low that you erroneously consider 
of major importance, you may recognize at a higher level that the market is vulnerable again to new lows. A clear-cut three-wave rally following the minor low rather than the necessary five gives
 the signal, since a three-wave rally is the sign of an upward correction. Thus, what happens after the turning point often helps confirm or refute the assumed status of the low or high, well in 
advance of danger.

Even if the market allows no such graceful exit, the Wave Principle still offers exceptional value. Most other approaches to market analysis, whether fundamental, technical or cyclical, have no 
good way of forcing a change of opinion if you are wrong. The Wave Principle, in contrast, provides a built-in objective method for changing your mind. Since Elliott Wave analysis is based upon 
price patterns, a pattern identified as having been completed is either over or it isn't. If the market changes direction, the analyst has caught the turn. If the market moves beyond what the 
apparently completed pattern allows, the conclusion is wrong, and any funds at risk can be reclaimed immediately. Investors using the Wave Principle can prepare themselves psychologically 
for such outcomes through the continual updating of the second best interpretation, sometimes called the "alternate count." 

Because applying the Wave Principle is an exercise in probability, the ongoing maintenance of alternative wave counts is an essential part of investing with it. In the event that the market violates 
the expected scenario, the alternate count immediately becomes the investor's new preferred count. If you're thrown by your horse, it's useful to land right atop another. Of course, there are often 
times when, despite a rigorous analysis, the question may arise as to how a developing move is to be counted, or perhaps classified as to degree. When there is no clearly preferred interpretation, 
the analyst must wait until the count resolves itself, in other words, to "sweep it under the rug until the air clears," as Bolton suggested. Almost always, subsequent moves will clarify the status of 
previous waves by revealing their position in the pattern of the next higher degree. When subsequent waves clarify the picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and
excitingly rise to nearly 100%.

Renowned financier Bernard Baruch, who was as close to markets as anyone, saw a connection between economic trends and the herding impulse of animals.
He also understood the crucial importance of that knowledge to a correct social analysis:

All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology. Without due recognition of crowd thinking... our theories of economics leave much 
to be desired... It has always seemed to me that the periodic madnesses which afflict mankind must reflect some deeply rooted trait in human nature - a trait akin to the 
force that motivates the migration of birds or the rush of lemmings to the sea.. It is a force wholly impalpable.. yet, knowledge of it is necessary to right judgements 
on passing events

 

 

 

 

 

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how markets behave. The description reveals that mass investor psychology swings from  
pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific patterns in price movement.Each pattern has implications regarding  the 
position of the market within its overall progression , past, present and future. The purpose of this publication and its associated services is  to 
outline the progress of markets in  terms of the Elliott Wave Principle and to educate interested partiesin the successful application of the Elliott 
Wave Principle. This is probably the most comprehensive trading education on how to project high probability time & price targets based  on
 Elliott Wave pattern structure.