Elliott Waves In Motion

 

 

Elliott Waves In Motion

The Elliott Wave Principle

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how markets behave. The description reveals that mass investor psychology swings from  pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, reating specific patterns in price movement. Each pattern has implications
regarding the position of the market within its overall progression , past, present and future. 

The purpose of this publication and its associated services is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle and
to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Elliott Wave Principle. This is probably the most comprehensive  trading 
education  on how to project high probability time and price targets based on Elliott Wave pattern structure.Under the Wave Principle, every
market decision is both produced by meaningful information and produces meaningful information. Each transaction, while at once an effect, 
enters the fabric of the market and, by communicating transactional data to investors, joins the chain of causes of others' behavior. 
This feedback loop is governed by man's social nature, and since he has such a nature, the process generates forms. 

As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value. Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other
times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is 
not propelled by the linear causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. Nor is the market the cyclically
rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Nevertheless, its movement reflects a structured formal progression. That progression unfolds
in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement. More specifically, a wave is any one of the patterns that naturally occur under the 
Wave Principle. 



A Power Law in the Stock Market


R.N. Elliott's depiction of the progress of the stock market unequivocally implied that while larger stock market reactions occur less often
than  small ones, they do not occur less often relative to the size of advances that precede them, but in fact just about as often. In other words, 
Elliott implied that the stock market follows a power law.  

In 1995, Boston University physicists Gene Stanley and Rosario Mantegna found that the fluctuations in the Standard & Poor's Composite index
of the 500 highest capitalized stocks do follow a power law. This particular power law is a Levy stable law (named after a French mathematician
of the early 20th century), which produces a bell curve with "extended wings," indicating that far- from - normal fluctuations in terms of size occur
a bit more often than they would if they followed a one-to-one relationship to the duration of the data sample. Figure 2-16, from Mantegna and 
Stanley's article in Nature, demonstrates that the S&P's fluctuations are quite uniform throughout the time scale, from 1 minute to 1000 minutes. 
This finding is consistant with the added wrinkle that large fluctuations , at least in this data example, occurred a bit more often than smaller ones relative to the time intervals between them. 

Levy laws also govern birds' flying and landing patterns, drips from leaky faucets, the wanderings of ants, and fluctuations in cotton prices and heartbeats.Stanley is applying the behavioral similarities of complex systems to understanding landscape formations, traffic patterns, Alzheimer's disease and the behavior of neutron stars. Like fractals, power laws suffuse nature.
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, p.44, Prechter 1999) 



 

The Basic Pattern

 

 

Source: Elliottwave International

 

 

Thinking Socionomically

Renowned financier Bernard Baruch, who was as close to markets as anyone, saw 
a connection between economic trends and the herding impulse of animals. 
He also understood the crucial importance of that knowledge to a correct analysis:

All economic movements, by their very nature, are motivated by crowd psychology.
Without due recognition or crowd-thinking... our theories of economics leave much
to be desired. ...

It has always seemed to me that the periodic madnesses which afflict
mankind must reflect some deeply rooted trait in human nature - a trait akin to the 
force that motivates the migration of birds or the rush of lemmings to the sea... 

It is a force wholly implapable...yet , knowledge of it is necessary to right judgements 
on passing events. 
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 Robert Prechter jr.) 

 

 

 

 

What is Socionomics?

Imagine a modern, ground-breaking theory, which could link all human social behavior -- cultural, economic, political, and more --
into a single, elegant and unifying framework.


By Editorial Staff
Tue, 16 Dec 2014 16:00:00 ET 

Have you ever noticed how economists, politicians, and business leaders consistently fail to foresee major turning points in history? With all of today’s science and technology, why are we still unable to anticipate wars, economic depressions, financial bubbles and even fashion trends? 

Conventional models for forecasting economic and social trends simply do not work because they rely on a fatally flawed assumption about how people behave. Unfortunately, “fatal assumptions” are common throughout scientific history, and they often languish for far too long. New ideas can blossom only after wrong assumptions 
are discarded. When evidence refutes long-held assumptions, truth has a chance. A new theory emerges, and the old theory's plethora of special cases and exceptions fade away. A proper perspective enhances our ability to predict and prepare for the future.

The fatal flaw that economics and broader social science fields rely upon is external causality, or the notion that major events are the primary influence and shaper of history. This model is just as attractive --and just as mistaken -- as the notion of the four elements, the four humors or a geocentric universe. 

Yet even in the face of contrary evidence, people find it hard to divest themselves of deeply ingrained notions.

Now imagine a modern, ground-breaking theory, which could link all human social behavior -- cultural, economic, political, and more -- into a single, elegant and unifying framework. Well, such a framework is here, and it's called socionomics.

Socionomics succeeds by turning the assumption of external causality on its head,and it instead recognizes internal causality. People in groups share an unconscious collective disposition that is endogenously regulated. This shared social mood steers the actions that groups take and therefore the events that unfold across time to create history. In other words, psychology precedes actions, not vice-versa. Furthermore, social mood’s fluctuations are patterned, which makes it possible to forecast the type and character of social and economic events. Socionomic causality is the engine of history.

The power of socionomics is radical and unprecedented. Conventional social theory would have had you trapped in Germany when the Nazis took over; socionomics tells you when the political environment is likely to turn dangerously unstable. 

Conventional economics would have you lose everything in a major financial crash; socionomics tells you when and where to expect them. As research marches on, the evidence continues to mount in favor of the socionomic insight.

 

 

 

 



Elliott Wave International >>>

 


[Social Mood Watch] When It Comes to Social Mood, No One Is Left Out of the Herd

Politics, Social Mood Watch 

By Robert Folsom | February 2, 2012

Europe’s economic and monetary union was the world’s most epically bull-market political event of the entire post-WWII period. The politicians and policymakers now in power belong to a generation of Europeans who believed their new union and currency would be a perpetual source of strength and stability.

I recently posted that comment on this page (November 2011). I could have added that a great many U.S. economists and policymakers likewise believed the EU and euro would be “a perpetual source of strength.”
Foremost among those U.S. economists was Columbia University’s Robert Mundell, who “began laying the intellectual groundwork for the [euro] and working toward its adoption more than 40 years ago.” So great 
was his influence regarding the euro that Mundell won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1999.

And so great was Mundell’s confidence in the euro’s future that in 2002, he remarked: “In my judgment
there is not a single country in the world that will lose from the advent of the euro.”

But ten years later, Professor Mundell’s argument is not likely to get nods of approval from the citizens 
of Germany. An estimate cited in The New York Times said that “as the main surplus-generating country 
in the euro area,” it would cost Germany

“…about 7 percent of its annual gross domestic product over several years to transfer sufficient funds to
bail out Europe’s debt-burdened countries…. That amount…would far surpass the huge reparations bill
foisted upon Germany by the victorious powers after World War I, the final payment of which Germany
made in 2010.” As you may know, German resentment of those huge reparations contributed strongly 
to the rise  of the Third Reich.

I realize that my comments here have the benefit of 2012’s hindsight. However…
…The benefit of foresight applies to this forecast, published more than a year before the first euro had even entered circulation:

By May 3, most of the countries in Western Europe were expected formally to join Germany in actions that would “irrevocably bind their currencies together.” Since joiners will not be allowed to leave, this is a rather strong expression of inclusionism, as well as a setup for future conflict. - Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, May 1998

Now, Prechter said this not because he was thinking about the “big picture” in Europe, and how some 
events would “lead” to other events. He was looking instead at the even bigger picture of social mood. 
Namely, that examples of extreme inclusionism appear when positive social mood itself reaches an extreme.

How extreme was the positive mood when the euro launched? So extreme that nations which were enemies
in history’s two bloodiest wars (both fought within the previous 80 years) all agreed to bind their collective futures to a single currency. So extreme that when the euro launched in January 2000, Professor Mundell claimed “that in 10 years’ time the euro zone will have expanded to cover 50 countries…”

Again: “Europe’s economic and monetary union was the world’s most epically bull-market political event 
of the entire post-WWII period.” Prechter and other socionomically-minded analysts understood this 
deeper truth about Europe’s new union, which is why their commentary and forecasts over the past decade (plus) amounts to a case study in “How to Use Socionomics to Make Specific Social Forecasts.” 
That sentence  is the subtitle for the cover story in the just-published January issue of The Socionomist.

The story’s title is “Do Try This at Home” — and it does indeed show the how and why principles 
of socionomics that explain “our dramatic, anti-intuitive forecasts for the disunion of Europe.
Read it right now by following this link.>>


 

 

 

 

...riding the waves with confidence

 

S&P500TradDESK

 

 

Fibonacci Fanlines
SPX 15min.,
March 27,2015 - © ELLIOTT today 

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Mid Line (ML-1)
SPX 15min.,
March 26,2015 - © ELLIOTT today 

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Watching Fibonacci
SPX 10min.,
March 24,2015 - © ELLIOTT today 

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 DJIA      DAX     EUROSTOXX     GOLD       EURUSD    FinancialMan    Scandals

                                                         

 
 


German DAX

 

 

 

DAX - Weekly Chart - Touching The Channel (1)
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"Thrust Out Of A Triangle (3)
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How Low Will It GO ?  
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Fibonacci Fanlines (2)

EURUSD [ 15minute Chart]
© ELLIOTT today, March 27,2015

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Fibonacci Fanlines
EURUSD [ 15minute Chart]

© ELLIOTT today, March 26,2015

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Getting Hot 
EURUSD [ 15minute Chart]

© ELLIOTT today, March 23,2015

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Dow'sPattern

 

 

 

The Diagonal Triangle Count (2)
DJIA, 30-Minute Chart
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DOW - Ending Pattern Forming (2)
DJIA, 120-Minute Chart
© ELLIOTT today, February 23,2015

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Forecasting With The Elliott Wave Principle:

Arrow points to lower prices...

Mid-Line Points to Lower Prices

SPX 30min., Dec 08,2014 [End of Day] 
© ELLIOTT today 

SPXDec82014

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There is a high degree of risk in trading.
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GOLD daily chart 
Mid Lines In The Gold Market (2)

© ELLIOTT today, March 6,2015

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how markets behave. The description reveals that mass investor psychology swings from  
pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific patterns in price movement.Each pattern has implications regarding  the 
position of the market within its overall progression , past, present and future. The purpose of this publication and its associated services is  to 
outline the progress of markets in  terms of the Elliott Wave Principle and to educate interested partiesin the successful application of the Elliott 
Wave Principle. This is probably the most comprehensive trading education on how to project high probability time & price targets based  on
 Elliott Wave pattern structure.