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This is probably the most comprehensive trading education  on how to project high probability time & price targets based on 
Elliott Wave pattern structure.

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how markets behave. The description reveals that mass investor psychology swings from   pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific patterns in price movement.Each pattern has implications regarding  the  position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of this publication and its associated services is  to 
outline the progress of markets in  terms of the Elliott Wave Principle and to educate interested partiesin the successful application of the Elliott  Wave Principle. This is probably the most comprehensive trading education on how to project high probability time & price targets based  on Elliott Wave pattern structure.

 

 

April 13, 2014

 

SPanalyst

 

 

 

 

new

 

5th Wave Failure
DAX update

© ELLIOTT today, April 11,2014

Goto>>>

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Update: The Euro Pattern

EURUSD daily, March 28,2014

open chart   EUR daily - © ELLIOTT today, March 28,2014

 

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TOP !!!

 

Classic Elliott Wave


Update: EW Analysis - SPX90min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 11,2014
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ALERT 


Update: EW Analysis - SPX60min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 10,2014
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ALERT !!


Update: EW Analysis - SPX45min,
© ELLIOTT today, Mar31,2014
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ALERT !!


Update: EW Analysis - SPX30min,
© ELLIOTT today, Mar20,2014
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ALERT !!

Make It Or Break It (2)

DAX update >>>
© ELLIOTT today, February 22,2014

The prefered count allows for a higher push because the supposed 
first wave down managed to be part of a more complex double three correction (w-x-y) and due to an extemely optimistic environment 
produced a "running correction". 

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ALERT !!

EURCHF 120min. [EURCHF 1.2155)]
© ELLIOTT today, Feb 28,2014,2014

Goto >>>

 

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Testimonies

"I am very impressed with the S&P charts you posted on ELLIOTT today".  Wed, 26 Mar 2008, Sincerely Gecchi Sim

BTW, you guys are still da best wavy-gravy on da net - bar none! And you can quote me on that!!  scamman,  clearstation.etrade.com

I just recently discovered your website, I like your clearly labelled charts. I haven't been able to find any sites with Elliott wave charts that even come close to yours! Your SPX charts have been a great reference to me for clearing up the smaller details.Best Regards, Brad,

I have never yet utilized an advisory service like yourself. To be very truthful can see the benefits of it. Alex

EXCELLENT job on your new chart!! I'm glad to see that because I have thought for a while that the real bottom was in March . I traded it and it felt like the real one instead of 2002, the transports bottomed there, and the rise from the 2002 is ugly. Since the street was so convinced of it I didn't bother pushing it. Lots of great work on that chart. Since now I can go along with that since you gave me confidence, I wouldn't see it ending here, but I have some real good Fib work that has caught these turns very well from 2003 low and there is no doubt that this market is trying to finish up the last Fib at 1242!!. With that, it can end closer to your 1250 in a blowoff Diagonal or the rest of the worlds 1260 area where the .618 from ATH's are. I dont think the market gives them the .618.  Dom

Hi, Just saw your Diagonal idea and love it! I always thought that it was an E at the same time the dow bottomed but didn't see a way to label it. Nice job! lets see what happens. 

Elliott-Today was the site I got the diagonal count from. Their main guy is a brilliant wave counter who has caught the majority of the swings this year on an intraday basis using Andrew's Pitchfork. They have a very interesting chart on that site that outlines the diagonal triangle. EN, Can

Great call this morning! I caught most of the move up. Do you think the current consolidation is a fourth wave? Thanks, Eric

The best wavy-gravy on the net, nonetheless. Enjoy! Clearstation

Hey John - These guys cook up the best wavy gravy on the net - BAR NONE - so I'm salivating as I wait for dinner to be served! The appetizer last week was delicious. Enjoy! Clearstation,

"hi ernie - These guys make the best wavy-gravy calls, period." [clearstation.com]

"Hi John - The Elliott chart I cited yesterday12:43 PM turned out to be the most prescient one of all - projected 1128; SPX high of day was 1127.65. Not too shabby!

"....thank You, I am very greatful to read your site Elliott today.  It is really one of the best Elliott sites i have ever seen..."

Hi Karl: I enjoyed your long-term analysis of gold as I have been trading it. (EN)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Socionomics

 

 

 


SOCIONOMICS IN A NUTSHELL

Understanding socionomics requires comprehending the contrast 
between two postulations:


(1) The standard presumption: Social mood is buffeted by economic, political and cultural trends and events. 
News of such events affects the social mood, which in turn affects people’s penchant for investing.

(2) The socionomic hypothesis: Social mood is a natural product of human interaction and is patterned
according to the Wave Principle. Its trends and extent determine the character of social action, including
the economic, political and cultural. 

The contrast between these two positions comes down to this: The standard presumption is that in the social setting, 
events govern mood; the socionomic hypothesis recognizes that mood governs events. In both cases, the stock market 
is seen as an efficient mechanism. In the first instance, it presumably revalues stocks continually and rationally in 
reaction to events; in the second, it revalues stocks continually and impulsively as the independent social mood changes. 
We will now investigate five presumed “outside forces” to see which of these views their relationship to the stock market supports.

The standard presumption is that the state of the economy is a key determinant of the stock market’s trends. All day long
on financial television and year after year in financial print media, investors debate the state of the economy for clues to
the future course of the stock market. If this presumed causal relationship actually existed, then there would be some  
evidence that the economy leads the stock market. On the contrary, for decades, the Commerce Department of the federal government has identified the stock market as a leading indicator of the economy, which is indeed the case. If the standard presumption were true, then changes in the economy would coincide with or precede trend changes in aggregate stock prices. However, a study of Figure 1 will show that changes in the economy coincide with or follow trend changes in aggregate stock prices. Except for the timing of the recession of 1946 (which supports neither case), all economic contractions came upon or after  a downturn in aggregate stock prices, and all economic recoveries came upon or after an upturn in aggregate stock prices.  In not one case did a contraction or recovery precede a change in aggregate stock prices, which would repeatedly
be the case  if investors in fact reacted to economic trends and events. 

This chronology persists back into the nineteenth century as far as the data goes. The socionomic hypothesis  explains the data. Changes in the stock market immediately reflect the changes in endogenous social mood.  As social mood becomes increasingly positive, productive activity increases; as social mood becomes increasingly negative, productive activity 
decreases. These results show up in lagging economic statistics as expansions and recessions. 
The standard presumption  has no explanation for the relative timing of these two phenomena.



The Economy
The standard presumption is that the state of the economy is a key determinant of the stock market’s trends. All day long 
on financial television and year after year in financial print media, investors debate the state of the economy for clues to 
the future course of the stock market. If this presumed causal relationship actually existed, then there would be some 
evidence that the economy leads the stock market. On the contrary, for decades, the Commerce Department of the federal government has identified the stock market as a leading indicator of the economy, which is indeed the case. If the standard presumption were true, then changes in the economy would coincide with or precede trend changes in  aggregate stock prices. However, a study of Figure 1 will show that changes in the economy coincide with or follow trend changes in aggregate stock prices. Except for the timing of the recession of 1946 (which supports neither case), all economic contractions came upon or after a downturn in aggregate stock prices, and all economic recoveries came upon or after an upturn in aggregate stock prices. 

In not one case did a contraction or recovery precede a change in aggregate stock prices, which would repeatedly 
be the case  if investors in fact reacted to economic trends and events. 

This chronology persists back into the nineteenth century as far as the data goes.The socionomic hypothesis explains the data. Changes in the stock market immediately reflect the changes in endogenous social mood. As social mood becomes increasingly positive, productive activity increases; as social mood becomes increasingly negative, productive activity decreases. These results show up in lagging economic statistics as expansions and recessions. The standard presumption 
has no explanation for the relative timing of these two phenomena.

 

 

The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior
And The New Science  of Socionomics

Socionomics postulates that, in any society, trends in the stock market, economy and culture change due to fluctuations in the mass (or social) mood of the citizens. Positive social trends - such as unity, peace, and tolerance - are prevalent in bull markets, while negative social expressions, like xenophobie, anger and divisiveness, dominate in bear markets. The stock market, says socionomics, is the leading indicator of social change and is governed by the Wave Principle. In other words, economics is a rearview mirror, socionomics is a windshield. Socionomics shows that bull markets lean toward inclusive behavior, while bear markets lean toward division. That explains the thirst to expand EU membership during the run-up in the bull market dispite concerns about financial stability of prospective entrants. In May 2004, as the wave b rally in Euro Stoxx became fully established, no fewer than 10 countries joined the union. A full seven were former eastern-bloc nations. While this constituted the "single largest enlargement of the EU in terms of people and landmass, "according to the Institute of Cultural Diplomacy,it was the "smallest in terms of GDP (wealth). Now, these new members are labeled "Europe's subprime." Their fiscal problems were well known at the time, but those who questioned their financial health were ignored. 

The bull market's appetite for togetherness, and the debt bubble's escalating need for new borrowers, guaranteed their entry. 
As optimism faded, the market immediately registered the decline. Stocks plunged. And along with market value went the once-welcoming attitude toward the eastern-bloc. With all due respect to both countries (Romania, Bulgaria) contenting that either was welcomed to "pursue the reunification of our European family," as European Commission president, Jose Barroso, claimed at the time, is akin to U.S. mortgage lender Fannie Mae alleging that its loan programs helped "families reach the American dream of homeownership." Both declarations are political rhetoric worthy of only the most optimistic Pollyanna. 
Here's the more compelling  reason: there was profit in it. Surprisingly, Mr Baroso admitted as much. 

 

Macroeconomic Formulae: Man as Machine

Economists devise today's macroecononic formulations under the presumption
that people react to outside stimuli like billiard balls following physical laws. 
Unlike physics formulae, though, the concepts represented by the variables in 
these equations are often imprecise. Many that are considered precise are not 
because they ignore the varying mental states of people. Often, the equations 
do not relate very well to the real world. The combination of vague definitions, 
improper assumtions and detached impracticality prompted Nobel price winner 
Wassily Leontief of the Institute for Economic Analysis at New York University 
to say this in 1982:

Year after year, economic theorists continue to produce scores of 
mathematical models and to explore in great detail their formal 
properties; and the econometricians fit algrebraic functions of all
possible shapes to essentially the same sets of data without being
able to advance, in any perceptible way, a systematic understanding
of the structure and the operation of a real economic system. 
In 1986, William Niskanen Jr. of the Cato Institute ws more succinct:
"Macroeconomic theory is in absolute shambles."


Source: Leontief, Wassily (1982, July 9). Letter to the editior. Science
Brock, D. (1986, June 30). "Seeing the economy's future with a shattered crystal ball." 
[The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 Robert R.Prechter jr., p.362-363]

 

 

 

 

 

The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior 
and the New Science of Socionomics


R.N.Elliott's announcement of his discovery of the Wave Principle sixty years ago 
was a major breakthrough in sociology. To summarize Elliott's achievements, he 
discovered that the stock market displays fractal geometry, he discovered and 
described the component patterns and how they link together, he recognized 
(with the help of Charles Collins) the basis of the patterns in Fibonacci 
mathematics, and he concluded from all this evidence that human social progress 
regulates itself according to natural laws of growth and expansion that are found 
throughout the universe. 

As Robert Prechter explains herein, this simple yet profound formulation reveals that, 
on the whole, the endogenous ebb and flow of social mood that propels mankind's 
progress follows a robust fractal and spiral design that closely resembles the 
development of all kinds of living forms. 

The practical value of the Wave Principle is that it forms the basis for a new science, 
the science of socionomics. Socionomics is the study of the formological
imperative of human interaction, which in turn is the engine of culture and history. 
Because people have an impulsive nature that rules  in  collectives, and because 
that nature is patterned, mass emotional change has a fair degree of predictability. 
As a result, its product, social action, does so as well.
>>>

 

 

 

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how markets behave. The description reveals that mass investor psychology swings from  
pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific patterns in price movement.Each pattern has implications regarding  the 
position of the market within its overall progression , past, present and future. The purpose of this publication and its associated services is  to 
outline the progress of markets in  terms of the Elliott Wave Principle and to educate interested partiesin the successful application of the Elliott 
Wave Principle. This is probably the most comprehensive trading education on how to project high probability time & price targets based  on
Elliott Wave pattern structure.