The Wave Principle
And The New Science
of Socionomics 
The Science of History and Social Prediction best- selling author Robert Prechter’s revolutionary two-book set, Socionomics: 

A Socionomic Manifesto   

Men have tried for millennia to forecast 
human events. In the long history of social forecasting, the chronic propensity for
 immense error has resulted from linear
  thinking, the extrapolation of current
 trends into the Future. 
http://www.socionomics.net

The Socionomic Insight 

The Wave Principle
Of Human Social Behavior 
And The New Science 
Of Socionomics

by Robert R. Prechter,Jr.,1999
[Elliott Wave International]

Fibonacci as Fundamental
to Robust Compounding
and Subdividing Forms

Paul Steinhardt, a theorist at the University
of Pennsylvania, along with several colleagues, postulates that the structure of a quasi-crystal is based upon the mathematics of "tiling,"which
involves the fitting together of geometric shapes
to fill space. Roger Penrose has recently demonstrated that a plane can be completely
covered using two specific types of rhombus-
shaped tiles. He found the astonishing fact that
no pattern of tiles is ever exactly repeated, 
which means that patterns made by these two
tiles are infinitely robust. Infinite robustness 
within a process involving rigid restrictions is 
a property shared by arbora and Elliott waves,
both of which are governed by Fibonacci. 

What governs Penrose's quasi-periodic tiling 
pattern? It turns out that both the areas of the
 tiles and therefore the numbers of the tiles in
any given (large) area, are in Fibonacci proportion, the same proportion that governs both the numbers and sizes of motive vs. corrective Elliott waves. In addition, the angles of the rhombi are single, double, triple and quadruple mulitples of 36 degrees, the
ruling angle of the Fibonacci-based five-pointed
star and of the DLA model of arboration. This means that you can slide the 36 degree angle of one of Penrose's tiles into the nook of the average arborum.

Hans C. von Baeyer points out in Discover magazine that the Penrose tiling scheme is very like the Fibonacci sequence itself in that it contains repeating patterns and is generated by two simple rules. 
(In viewing Penrose's pattern, one gets the distinct impression of a three-dimensional quality as if the pattern were a pile of regular and skewed cubes.
 Is the third dimension somehow a product of Fibonacci mathematics?) 

(Von Baeyer, H.C. 1990, February. "Impossible crystals." Discover.) 

(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter) 

Mises Circle: Ten Great Economic Errors
(A Jeremy S. Davis Seminar) 
January 26, 2008 
Houston, Texas
For centuries, the same economic errors have tended to shape the public mind, but there are particular ones in our time that deserve a widespread debunking:  Outsourcing costs jobs at home and exploits the poor abroad The Fed can stabilize the economy Renters and laborers suffer while owners and capitalists rule Saving is better than consuming; consuming is better than saving Prices are abritary and set by powerful market players War is good for the economy Small is beautiful Recycling is always better than discarding Security must be provided by government Some socially desirable goods and services must be provided by the state. http://www.mises.org/

Recent articles: 
History's Hidden Engine (Documentary)

Socionomics in Action (Essays and Reports)
Progress in Socionomics
Understand the Theory

http://www.socionomics.net


Journal of Behavioral Finance Publishes Paper by Prechter & Parker

The Journal of Behavioral Finance has published a paper by Robert R. Prechter, Jr., Executive Director of the Socionomics Institute, and Wayne D. Parker, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Socionomics Foundation. The paper’s citation is: Prechter, Robert R., Jr., and Wayne D. Parker (2007). “The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective.” Journal of Behavioral Finance, 8(2), pp. 84-108. You may view the abstract and purchase subscriptions to the Journal here. Back issues are also available. We recommend this journal for anyone interested in the psychology of financial markets. 
For more information, read the press release at the Socionomics Foundation’s website at www.socionomics.org/press/fin_econ.aspx.

Air Force Major Writes About Socionomics
Maj. Tyson Hummel of the Air Command and Staff College, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base has permitted the Socionomics Foundation to post an excerpt from his master's thesis. It is a fascinating application of socionomics for America's economic and military future, titled "Is the Science of Socionomics Able to Portend a Change in the United States’ Economic Might?" Read it at www.socionomics.org/pdf/Hummel_US_Econ.pdf.

Prechter Comments on Fibonacci Study
Robert Prechter, Executive Director of the Socionomics Institute, has commented on a study of Fibonacci retracements and projections in the stock market that was reported recently in The Economist, London's Financial Times and elsewhere. The study, conducted by Roy Batchelor and Richard Ramyar at the Cass Business School in London, offers evidence to support a general conclusion about Fibonacci ratios in the stock market initially mentioned by Frost and Prechter in their 1978 presentation of R.N. Elliott's Wave Principle, a model of aggregate market behavior germane to socionomics. To read Prechter's analysis of this study, click www.socionomics.net/FiboStudy.

Socionomics Foundation Wins National Research Competition
The American Political Science Association recently announced that the Socionomics Foundation's questions about social mood were among those chosen from more than 1,100 proposed queries to be included an upcoming research project funded by the National Science Foundation. To read the press release concerning the award, visit www.socionomics.org/press/ANES.

Making History: 
An Interview 
with Film Director 
David Edmond Moore
David Edmond Moore of Eyekiss Films in Atlanta recently completed a documentary on socionomics titled History's Hidden Engine, which is freely available for viewing or download at www.socionomics.net/films/history/. 

We interviewed David on his thoughts post-production.

Q: What inspired you to create a documentary on socionomics?
A: I first became interested in socionomics after reading Bob Prechter's report, "Popular Culture and The Stock Market." It was the first time I had heard of the Wave Principle. I found it remarkable that the stock market correlated with trends in fashion, movies and music. I wasn't really a finance guy. I was just out of school, and pop culture was what interested me. What drove it home for me was that after reading the report I noticed a correlation between the crash in 1987 and a change in the music of U2 and R.E.M. Both groups went from being just rock bands to releasing two very political albums in 87. Later still, after the market recovered from the 87 crash and we extended the massive bull market through the late 80s and 90s, U2 and R.E.M. released "happy" albums. U2 went so far as to call their album Pop. You can't say it any clearer.

Continue reading the interview.
www.socionomics.org

News and Upcoming Events
Wayne D. Parker, Ph.D.
Congress of the International Association for Research in Economic Psychology (IAREP) and The Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE) Date and location: July 5-8, 2006, Paris, France Paper title: "Methodological Individualism vs. Methodological Holism: Neoclassicism, Institutionalism and Socionomic Theory."
www.socionomics.org

The 8th Annual Conference of the Association for Heterodox Economics
Conference theme: "Economics, Pluralism, and the Social Sciences"
Date and location: 14 - 16 July, 2006 " London School of Economics and University College London Paper title: "The Socionomic Theory of Finance and the Institution of Social Mood: Pareto and the Sociology of Instinct and Rationalization" by Wayne D. Parker and Robert R. Prechter, Jr.
www.socionomics.org



Hernán Cortés Douglas 
Alternative Perspectives on Finance 8th Biennial Conference
Date and Location: August 6-8, 2006, Zakopane, Poland Paper title: “Toward A Revolution in Macroeconomics”
www.socionomics.org








Pete Kendall's 
Socio Times

'Negative Thinking' Sweeps
 Into Fortune Cookie Market

Category: CULTURAL TRENDS
By: Pete Kendall, October 8, 2007 

The academic world is catching on to the power of negativity. “Bad moods and negative attitudes have gotten a bad rap at work,” says a widely cited paper. “Bad moods can play a fruitful role.” The theory of social visioning says that expressions of a new mood can foreshadow the actual trend change. In this case, the clarity of the images probably says a lot about the intensity of the new trend. There’s certainly no mistaking its trajectory. The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, August 2007  http://www.sociotimes.com/

Studies

DAX & Social Mood
(c) ELLIOTT today, 14.Dez 2006

Artkel einer großen deutschen Tageszeitung, erschienen am 14.Dezember 2006
mit dem Titel: "Aufschwung 2007"  und  die "Die Aussichten sind günstig" 

"Wirtschaftsinstitute und Wirtschaft überschlagen sich mit guten Nachrichten: RWI und Ifo-Institut erhöhen ihre Prognosen für 2007, der Deutsche Industrie- und Handelskammertag rechnet mit 
200.000 neuen Jobs."

Use the News
and You Loose

"Trotz eines höheren Ölpreises und des teuren Euro haben die europäischen Aktienmärkte gestern zugelegt", schreibt die FTD. "Das ist eigentlich erstaunlich. Der Euro nimmt ein neues Hoch, und wir steigen weiter", sagte ein Händler der Postbank.    

Champions of news causality truly have a fundamental problem, which is that no investor really knows the implications of any piece of news. This fact is hidden by the ease with which financial news writers can retrospectively pull out from the plethora of news on any given day a story that appears to justify whatever market movement occurred. 
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, R.R.Prechter) 
Read more>>>

The Economy
The standard presumption is that the state of the economy is a key determinant of  the stock market’s trends. All day long on financial television and year after year in financial print media, investors debate the state of the economy for clues to the future course of the stock market. If this presumed causal relationship actually existed, then there would be some evidence that the economy leads the stock market. On the contrary, for decades, the Commerce Department of the federal government has identified the stock market as a leading indicator of the economy, which is indeed the case.  Read more

Herding Psychology and Financial Markets

As primitive tool of survival, emotional impulses from the limbic system impel a desire among individuals to seek signals from others in matters of knowledge and behavior and therefore to align their feelings and convictions with those of the group. The desire to belong to and be accepted by the group is particularly powerful in intensely emotional social settings, when it can overwhelm the higher brain functions. The less that reality intrudes on the thinking of a group, the stronger is its collective conformity. Dependence most easily substitutes for rigorous reasoning when knowledge is lacking or logic irrelevant. In a realm such as investing, where so few are knowledgeable, or in a realm such as fads and fashion, where logic is inappropriate and the whole points is to impress other people, the tendency toward dependence is pervasive. Trends in such activities are steered not by decisions of individual minds but by the peculiar collective sensibilities of the herd. In the 1920s, Cambridge economist A.C. Pigou connected cooperative social dynamics to booms and depression. 

Some Key Fundamentals 
of Socionomics
Financial Man is Not the Same as Economic Man 

It is universally presumed that the primary law of economics, i.e., that price is a function of supply and demand, also rules finance. However, human behavior with respect to prices of investments is, in a crucial way, the opposite of that with respect to prices of goods and services. When the price of a good or service rises, fewer people buy it, and when its price falls, more people buy it. This response allows pricing to keep supply and demand in balance. In contrast, when the price of an investment rises, more people buy it, and when its price falls, fewer people buy it. This behavior is not an occasional financial market anomaly, it always happens. Look back at Figure 7-3, the graph of the dollar-valued trading volume in the U.S. stock market divided by the prevailing gross domestic product. As you can see, volume expands as stock prices rise and contracts as they fall. In economic matters, rising prices repel buyers, in investment matters, rising prices attract buyers. This difference is not incidental, it is fundamental. 

Elections

Electoral Consequences
of Social Mood Trends

The social psychology that accompanies a bull or bear market is the main determinant not only of how voters select a president but also of how they perceive his performance. Correlation with the stock market, consumer confidence, economic performance and other measures suggests that social mood is by far the main determinant of presidential popularity.

Gambling

Actions typically not regarded as gambling

Emotional or physical risk-taking where what is being risked is not money or material goods (e.g., skydiving, running for office, asking someone for a date, etc.) Buying insurance, as the primary intent of the purchase is to protect against loss, rather than to collect. All forms of 'investment' (stock market, real estate) with positive expected returns, economic utility, and some underlying value independent of the risk being undertaken. Starting a new business, as time and effort are also being wagered and the outcome is not determined in a short period of time. Situations where the possibility of winning additional money or material goods is a secondary or incidental reason for the wager/purchase (e.g., buying a raffle ticket to support a worthy cause). Prediction markets or knowledge exchanges where the outcome is to encourage the development of market-based mechanisms for resolving questions of science, technology, management, strategy, planning, policy, etc. 

Fashion

Trend in Hemlines

Harvard graduate Ralph Rotnem, a researcher at the Harris Upham brokerage firm, originated the so-called "hemline-theory," which is the recognition that women's skirt lengths tend to rise and fall in tandem with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Though this idea is often dismissed as frivolous, socionomics explains why there is a correlation. The trends of stock prices and women's hemlines are a function of social mood. When people feel bold and frisky, they buy stocks and wear more revealing clothes. When they feel
threatened and conservative, they sell stocks and wear more concealing clothes. It is that simple. Because skirt lengths have limits (the floor and the upper thigh respectively), the reaching of a limit implies the concurrence of an extreme positive or negative mood. As Figure 15-1 illustrates, hemlines went very low at the stock market bottom of 1921. 

They rose to miniskirts brevity in the late 1920s and late 1960s peaking with stock prices both times. Hemlines plunged to maxiskirt floor-lengths in the 1930s and1970s, bottoming with stock prices both times. Today, as we head into 1999,skirts worn by models and celebrities are extremely short (one runway featured what looks like a wide belt), while those worn by the general public are just shy of 1968's minidress length.(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R. Prechter jr.) 

Women Gain Dominance

India Elects First Woman
To Ceremonial Presidential Post 
Associated Press, July 22,2007 

Corporate Scandals

Siemens-Kunden sind empört 
19. Dezember 2006

Bis vor kurzem stand der Name Siemens in Deutschland für Qualität, für innovative Produkte und für Tradition. Doch mit diesem positiven Bild in der Öffentlichkeit scheint es erst einmal vorbei zu sein.Der Skandal um schwarze Kassen hat viele Menschen verärgert. Besonders zu spüren bekommt das der PC-Produzent Fujitsu Siemens Computers. 

Hedge Fund Considerations

"In 1927-1929, banks formed affiliates for the purpose of exploiting intensively the diverse
opportunities for profit associated with successful stock operations. The additional gains which accrued from guiding the price upward dulled the bankers' realization of the danger in such tactics. Though the operation was obscured by the complexity of the process, the bank was actually engaged in stock rigging. It was easier to advance further sums to assure the success of the venture, than to write off an initial loss. Before the bank officials realized the situation, they were so heavily committed that retreat was impossible."

A Socionomic View 
of Demographic Trends
or Stocks & Sex

Figure 1 shows the stock market prices plotted against birth rates from 1909 to the present. The data is shown with no lag. The first thing to notice is that there is a fairly noticeable correlation between two sets of data. Why would births and the stock market trend together, if they do at all?

September 30, 2008

Socionomics

The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999)

In the late 1990s, we are approaching the top of wave (V), which will also mark 
a Grand Supercycle degree top, the largest in over 2½ centuries. Coextensively, during this time there have been almost too many peace initiatives to count. Olive branches have been offered in the political, religious, racial and social realms worldwide, many 
of which have addressed grievances and soothed conflicts that have existed for centuries. A European Union was consummated following 1500 years of repeated conflict in the region. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999, Robert R.Prechter jr.))

 

Presumed Mechanical Determinants of Market Movements

A variant of the approach that assumes society is a machine is the idea that the stock market is a machine. If it is running properly, the implied idea seems to go, then prices rise. If prices fall, the machine is broken. The trick, then, is to identify the weak cogs every now and then and fix them. 

The crash of 1987 was such a storm of mass emotion that it caused "market as machine" theorists to work overtime explaining the drop and figuring out how to "fix" the system. The theory that gained the most credence was that the crash was caused by so-called portfolio insurance computer programs, which in essence sold stocks as the market went lower. This process presumably fed upon itself. 

Unfortunately for the theory, it does not explain very well why markets around the world crashed simultaneously or why the decline stopped. it is an utter loss to explain why many indexes around the world that had no computer trading fell further than the DJIA. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter, Elliott Wave International)  

More about Socionomics

 

Feedback as Characteristic of Financial Markets
and Society

Like Societies as a whole, financial markets are a quintessential example 
of systems whose results feed back into the system as new cause. As the
most widely followed market index in the world, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
not only reflects the pulse of investors, it affects the pulse of investors. Not only 
do investors' decisions make the Dow often causes investors to make those very decisions. Every day, investors watch the same ticker tape, read the same newspapers, listen to the same financial television shows, and watch the same
market indices go up and down. The same information, opinions and emotional expressions are absorbed and reflected by millions of people involved in the market.
It is almost as if the participants are in a town square, and an orator trying to whip 
up revolution is standing on a balcony, making the crowd's emotions wax and wane with each change in content, tone and volume. In the case of markets, however, the orator and crowd are mostly one and the same. Much of Wall Street's information, such as price level, direction, speed of price change and volume, is self-generated, 
and just like a mob, the financial community feeds off its own emotions. The reason
is that every market decision is both produced by information and produces information. Each transaction, while at once an effect, becomes part of the market 
and, by communicating transactiönal data to investors, joins the chain of causes of others' behavior. This process produces a mass feedback loop, which is governed by man's unconscious social nature. Since he has such a nature, the process repeatedly generates the same form.
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter) Elliott Wave International

Previous Issues

October 2007

 

---

September 30, 2008

 

Paulson Suggests Worst Is PastPaulson said the overall picture of U.S. financial markets has improved in recent months despite continuing challenges in the housing market. "We are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning," he said. WSJ, May 17,2008

 

Market Dispatches 4/25/2008 
Consumer sentiment hits 26-year low Rising fuel and food prices weigh on consumers in April, offsetting good news about the U.S. dollar. Microsoft earnings rise, but sales are lower than estimates; the deadline for Yahoo to accept its bid is Saturday. MSN Money, April 25,2008

China Offers Tibet Talks With Envoy of Dalai Lama 

China's surprise offer to meet with representatives of the Dalai Lama raises new hopes for detente between the bitter adversaries, but also poses a challenge for leaders on both sides: How to placate younger generations convinced that there's no room for compromise.WSJ, April 26, 2008

 

Exklusiv Autokonzerne fürchten Protektionismus

Europas Autokonzerne fürchten, dass die geplanten CO2-Strafen für Pkw den europäischen Binnenmarkt zerstören könnten. Auslöser für diese Ängste ist ein vertrauliches Gutachten des juristischen Diensts im Europaparlament. FTD, April 18, 2008

Schwacher US-Markt beutelt Toyota Der größte japanische Automobilhersteller Toyota Motor könnte einem Medienbericht zufolge einen deutlichen Gewinnrückgang verbuchen. FTD , April 18, 2008

 Not für die Welt 
Unruhen wegen rapide steigender Getreidepreise haben die Welt aufgeschreckt. Auch die Lebensmittelkonzerne sind betroffen. Sie müssen sich umstellen - Experten befürchten eine jahrelange globale Versorgungskrise mit bislang ungeahnten Folgen. FTD, April 18, 2008

 

Deutsche Kinokrise: Die fetten Jahre sind vorbei
Und wo bleibt das Happy End? Trotz eines saisonalen Aufschwungs leiden Deutschlands Kinos dauerhaft an Besucherschwund. In Hamburg musste nun ein Traditionshaus schließen - auch weil die Politik lieber auf teure Prestigeprojekte setzt. Der Spiegel online, April 01, 2008




Japan's business sentiment plunges CNN, Mar 24,2008

Lehman May Be Victim of Fraud 
TOKYO -- U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Inc. appears to have been a victim of a fraud in which swindlers used forged documents from one of Japan's biggest trading companies to bilk it out of as much as $250 million.
Late last year, a unit of the New York-based investment bank issued loans to a fund run by a medical consulting company owned by LTT Bio-Pharma Co., a Japanese biotechnology company based in Tokyo. WSJ, March 29,2008


HEDGEFONDS-DESASTER
Mister Glücksritter bangt um seine Milliarden
Er zockt mit Milliarden wie beim Poker: John Meriwether gilt als größenwahnsinnige Wall-Street-Legende. Vor zehn Jahren löste er den spektakulärsten Hedgefonds-Kollaps der US-Geschichte aus. Doch er machte einfach weiter - und steht nun wieder im Zentrum 
der Finanzkrise. Spiegel.de, online, March 30,2008

 

Finanzmarkt
Eine Krise der Profis (FAZ.net, Mar 22,2008


Condo Market Build

BAP/GGM 
The condominium market is about to get worse as many cities brace for a flood of new supply. The deluge means bad news for developers and potentially lower prices, including in cities that have avoided the worst of the housing bust. WSJ, Mar 22,2008

Bear Stearns geht unter - US- Finanzminister in der Kritik
Eine Traditionsbank versinkt, die Börse wird panisch: Das Investmenthaus Bear Stearns entgeht haarscharf der Pleite - und wird zum Ramschpreis an einen Konkurrenten verkauft.
Spiegel de., Mar 17,2008



Bear Sells for $2 a Share; Fed Cuts Discount Rate

Bear Stearns reached a deal to sell itself to J.P. Morgan for just $2 a share, or $236 million, amid fears that failing to find a buyer could deepen Wall Street's crisis of confidence. In a simultaneous move, the Fed announced one of the broadest expansions of its lending authority since the 1930s, in an effort to stem a credit crisis that is engulfing the financial system and threatening a deep recession. Stocks dropped in Asia and Europe and the dollar tumbled. WSJ, Mar 17,2008



Banks Fear a Deepening of Turmoil
Many bankers are steeling themselves for the global financial crisis to both last longer and grow deeper, a shift in mood that could magnify the potential for upheaval in markets and economies world-wide. WSJ, Mar 17,2008

 

Schwacher Monat für deutsche Autokonzerne in den USA
Die deutschen Autohersteller haben in den USA im Februar mehrheitlich schlechtere Geschäfte gemacht. Vor allem Spritfresser verkauften sich schlecht. FTD, Mar 4,2008

 

Main Street gegen Wall Street
Viele US-Bürger misstrauen der Wall Street grundsätzlich. Doch jetzt wird aus mangelndem Vertrauen blanke Wut: Städte und Gemeinden laufen Sturm und machen Banken und Ratingagenturen für steigende Kosten verantwortlich. FTD, Mar 4,2008

Tod eines Farc-Rebellen: 
Ecuador und Venezuela brechen diplomatische Beziehungen zu Kolumbien  ab 
Die Spannungen wegen des kolumbianischen Militäreinsatzes in Ecuador wachsen: Venezuela und Ecuador haben die diplomatischen Beziehungen zu Kolumbien beendet. Auch Brasilien schaltete sich in den Konflikt ein und forderte eine "bedingungslose Entschuldigung" des Landes.Der Spiegel online, Mar 4,2008

 

Autosalon Genf 2008 
Die kleinen Träume
Im Scheinwerferlicht gleißen die Träume aus Metall. Dabei geht der Trend zum Downsizing und nicht zu PS-Boliden. Stern, Mar 4,2008

Bank: Rogue trader hacked computers
The trader accused of making fraudulent transactions that cost Societe Generale €4.9 billion ($7.2 billion) hacked computers and used "several techniques of fraud," the French banking giant says. CNN, Jan 27,2008

 

SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE
Händler stürzt Großbank mit Milliardenbetrug in die Krise
Schock für das Bankensystem: Ein einzelner Aktienhändler hat die französische Großbank Société Générale um 4,9 Milliarden Euro geprellt. Er hebelte offenbar alle Kontrollmechanismen aus, Bankchef Bouton und viele in der Branche sind fassungslos. "Er hat einfach nur gespielt."
Spiegel.de, Jan 24,2008

 

Kein Grund für einen langen Börsenblues
Panikstimmung an den Börsen. Doch die Investmentstrategen schreiben das Jahr 2008 noch lange nicht ab. Sie raten zum Wiedereinstieg - nur nicht sofort. 
FTD, Jan 23,2008

WALL- STREET- DRAMA
US- Zinssenkung sorgt für Erholung an Asiens Börsen 
Aufatmen an den Börsen Asiens. Die großen Handelsplätze 
haben mit deutlichen Kursgewinnen auf die Zinssenkung der 
US-Zentralbank reagiert. Die Anleger griffen bei Papieren 
aus allen Branchen zu. Spiegel.de, Jan 23,2008

 

 

Elliott Wave Principle

Key To Stock Market Profits by Frost & Prechter 
(Expanded Edition1990)

Elliott Wave Principle >>>

 

 

Gold Hits Record High of $870 an Ounce
03 Jan 2008 Gold and platinum soared to historic highs on Thursday as 
speculators and investors snapped them up on the back of strong oil prices and expectations for further U.S. interest rate cuts, analysts said. Jan 9,2008

 

USA IN WECHSELLAUNE
Republikaner kapern Obamas "Project Change"
Change, Change, Change: Bei den Republikanern zeichnet sich immer noch kein Favorit ab-Spiegel.de, Jan 8,2008

 

Tutu: Kenya has failed its people
Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu has rounded on Kenya's ruling elite after attempting to broker a peaceful solution to the crisis that has engulfed the nation. His comments to CNN came at the end of a week during which more than 300 people have died and 75,000 internally displaced in post-election violence. CNN, Jan 4,2008

Clinton unbowed by third-place finish 
DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, claiming to be unbowed by a third-place finish in the Iowa Democratic caucuses, hailed a "great night for Democrats" and said the strong turnout pointed to the sure election of a Democratic president in November. She said she would "keep pushing as hard as we can." Yahoo.com, Jan 4,2008

Japanese Stocks Tumble, Sending Topix Index to Record Opening-Day Decline Japanese stocks fell, sending the Topix index to its worst New Year start, after Toyota Motor Corp. cut a forecast for U.S. sales, stoking concern that consumer demand is slowing in Asia's largest export market. Bloomberg, Jan 4,2008

French Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Fell 
to 19-Month Low in December Consumer 
confidence in France unexpectedly fell to a 19-month low in December after inflation accelerated, adding to households' concerns their purchasing power is shrinking. Bloomberg, Jan 4,2008Slump in Auto Sales Augurs Ill for '08
The auto industry's troubles are spreading to other manufacturers amid a slump in U.S. vehicle sales that is likely to turn 2008 into the weakest year in at least a decade. GM's vehicle sales fell 4.4% in December. Toyota had a 1.7% drop, but it overtook Ford for the year. WSJ, Jan 4,2008

Initial jobless claims fell back last week from three-year highs but continuing claims jumped again, suggesting weakening in labor markets. Factory orders surged in November,but demand for durable goods declined. WSJ, Jan 4,2008

Consumer bankruptcy filings rose 40% in 2007 as housing-market turmoil and increasing consumer debt levels led more people 
to seek protection from creditors. WSJ, Jan 4,2008

Nikkei Ends Down 4% 
By Andrew Morse 
Companies Featured in This Article: Toyota Motor, Canon, Konami, 
Nissan Motor TOKYO -- Japanese stock prices fell 4% Friday after weakness on Wall Street and higher oil prices raised concerns about the state of the global economy. WSJ , Jan 4,2008

Australia's Housing Affordability Set To Deteriorate In 2008
Australia's housing affordability is set to weaken in 2008, 
the Real Estate Institute of Australia said Friday. RTT News, Jan 4,2008

December 27, 2007
Suicide in Saudi Arabia: It's A Woman's World We came across an interesting article in today's Arab News. 
According to a study conducted by King Saud University, the crushing majority
of suicide attempts in Saudi Arabia involve women. The study found that in 2006, 
a shocking 96% of all failed suicide bids were carried out by women.http://edition.cnn.com/CNNI/
Programs/middle.east/blog/2007/12/suicide-in-saudi-arabia-its-womans.html

Market Psychology
Babe Ruth & Accuracy
Michael Covel (February 16, 2005)
Babe Ruth and Home Runs
What Does This Mean for Your Trading?
http://www.turtletrader.com/babe-ruth.html

 

GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil breaks $100, 
stocks edge up on US data
Thu Jan 3, 2008 
Oil eases after surge to $100 
Oil soars above $99 as dollar sinks 
Chavez in Tehran: Empire of dollar is crashing NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Stocks edged up on Thursday as employment and factory data soothed nerves about the state of the U.S. economy, while a decline in U.S. crude inventories sent oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time.Treasury debt prices fell, reversing Wednesday's rally, but continued worries about high oil prices and a falling dollar helped propel gold to a new record as investors sought to hedge against inflation. 
Reuters.com, Jan 3,2008

 

Eve of Destruction?

Benazir Bhutto assassinated
Pakistan's former PM Benazir Bhutto assassinated 
in Rawalpindi after rally. CNN, Dec 28,2007

No Recession, But 
Wed Dec 26, 3:33 PM ET
For 2008, the economic outlook is Topic No. 1 for almost all investors. Stock prices and bond yields already reflect recession worries, but an actual downturn would hit portfolios hard. To help get a handle on what to expect, BusinessWeek asked 54 forecast ers in our annual outlook survey for their views on everything from housing and the credit crunch to Fed policy and global growth.
(Click here for full survey results.) 

 

Blair converts to Catholicism
Tony Blair, who often kept his religious views private while serving as Britain's prime minister,  has converted to Catholicism, officials said Saturday. Pictured here with Pope Benedict XVI in June 2007, Blair had long been a member of the Church of England. CNN, Dec 22,2007

 

ÜBERRASCHUNGSKANDIDAT HUCKABEE
Der wahre Republikaner
Mike Huckabee ist der neue Star unter den republikanischen Präsidentschaftskandidaten. Mit Charme und flotten Bibelsprüchen erobert er die Herzen der Evangelikalen - und macht der Konkurrenz zu schaffen. Dabei ist Huckabee ein religiöser Radikaler. Spiegel online, 
Dec 21,2007

 

Tuchman: Hitting the road (literally) 
with some faithfulSome see connection between the Bible and Interstate 35

Believers pray by the side of the highway, which runs through six states I-35 runs from southern Texas to northern Minnesota. CNN, Dec 20,2007DALLAS, Texas (CNN) -- If you turn to the Bible -- Isaiah Chapter 35, Verse 8 -- you will see a passage that in part says, "A highway shall be there, and a road, and it shall be called the Highway of Holiness."  

Practical thinking/Magical thinking: Practical thinking manifests itself in philosophic defenses of reason, self-providence, individualism, peacemaking and a reverence for science. Magical thinking manifests itself in philosophic attacks on reason, self-abnegation, collectivism, witch hunts, war-making and a reverence for religion.  
Socionomics>>>

 

Goldman Sachs's $69 Million Man
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein received about $69 million in compensation this year, the largest payday ever for the head of a Wall Street firm and a far cry from many of his rivals, some of whom are forgoing their bonuses in acknowledgment of a devastating year.

 

The Fall of A World Hero
Pressure on Morgan Stanley's Mack
Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack, who set out to restore the firm's "swagger,"
was left shaken after the company said it would write down $9.4 billion in
mortgage assets, post a quarterly loss and take a $5 billion investment from 
China. WSJ, Dec 20,2007 Socionomics>>>

 

Euro-Zone Growth Looks Bleaker 

FRANKFURT -- Leaders of the European Central Bank are getting gloomier
about growth prospects for the 13 countries that share the euro currency.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, stressing heightened uncertainty
surrounding the euro-zone growth outlook, Friday suggested the bloc 
could grow slower than the central bank's staff forecast on Dec. 6. 

 

Are Carbon Emissions the Cause of Global Warming
By David Evans
Posted on 12/11/2007
The natural science of climatology and the social science of economics find themselves bound up with each other in the debate on global warming. There are many economic issues to discuss concerning the government's ability to control the future of weather patterns through regulation and the like. But so far, the debate has focused on the natural-science question of whether global warming is actually occurring, and, if so, what its cause is. Here is where the popular understanding is very much in need of correction. A paper I wrote, "I Was On the Global Warming Gravy Train," briefly describes the history of why we used to believe that carbon emissions caused global warming, and how we got to where we are now in the debate.Full article Ludwig von Mises Institut visit the Mises Blog, http://blog.mises.org/blog/

 

Das Ende der Globalisierung?
In den USA bahnt sich ein historischer Richtungswechsel in der Wirtschaftspolitik an: Der Freihandelsgedanke, Grundlage der heutigen Globalisierung, überzeugt nur noch eine Minderheit. An der Spitze der Skeptiker marschieren die Präsidentschaftsbewerber Hillary Clinton und Mike Huckabee. 
Spiegel online, Dec 11,2007Socionomics>>>

"The coming trend of negative social psychology 
will be characterized primarily  by polarization between and among various perceived groups, whether political, ideological, religious, geographical, racial or economic. The result will be a net  trend toward anger, fear, intolerance, disagreement and exclusion, as opposed to the bull market years, whose net trend has been toward benevolence, confidence, tolerance, agreement and inclusion. Such a sentiment change typically brings conflict in many forms, and evidence of it will be visible in all types of social organizations..." (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, R.R.Prechter) 

 

Free fall after
Fed cut Stocks tank after Fed cuts rates by a quarter point, rather than the half some had hoped.  CNN money, Dec 12,2007
Socionomics Insight>>>Market Dispatches 11/30/2007

 

'Santa Ben' pumps up stocks
Markets jump on comments from Fed chief Bernanke that the central bank will remain 'alert and flexible. MSN Money, Nov 30,2007

 

KAHNS ABSCHIEDSTOUR
Der traurige Niedergang
des Tor- Titanen
Ausgerechnet auf der Zielgeraden geht ihm die Puste aus: Von einem stilvollen Abgang der Marke Scholl ist Oliver Kahn weit entfernt. In seinem letzten Bundesligajahr erlebt der einstige Titan herbe Rückschläge.
Die Bayern feiern schon seinen Nachfolger. Spiegel de. , Dec 12,2007

Bayern München
Ottmar Hitzfeld rasiert Kahn! Es ist der Bayern-Hammer! Trainer Ottmar Hitzfeld (58) wirft Oliver Kahn (38, für das letzte Hinrunden- Spiel in Berlin raus! Wurde Hitzfeld von den Bayern-Bossen dazu gezwungen? bild.de, Dec 12,2007

 

Stimmung in der Wirtschaft kippt
So mies war die Stimmung in der deutschen Wirtschaft seit 15 Jahren nicht mehr:Der ZEW-Konjunkturindex ist im Dezember auf minus 37,2 Punkte eingebrochen.Experten warnen: Das Wachstum schwächt sich merklich ab. Spiegel online, Dec 11,2007"

"Es war ein Sauhaufen"
Die jüdische Gemeinde in Berlin will nach Jahren öffentlich ausgetragener interner Querelen endlich Ruhe und hofft auf die neue Vorsitzende Lala Süsskind. Zum ersten Mal seit 1948 wird damit eine Frau an der Spitze der Gemeinde stehen. Lala Süsskind sprach mit stern.de in ihrem Haus in Berlin. Dezember 11,2007

 

Das Ende der Globalisierung?

In den USA bahnt sich ein historischer Richtungswechsel in der Wirtschaftspolitik an: Der Freihandelsgedanke, Grundlage der heutigen Globalisierung, überzeugt nur noch eine Minderheit. An der Spitze der Skeptiker marschieren die Präsidentschaftsbewerber Hillary Clinton und Mike Huckabee. 
Spiegel online, Dec 11,2007

 

Has the Top Been Seen`?

Merkel verliert in der Wählergunst
Die SPD ist laut einer Umfrage ihrem Jahrestief entkommen - liegt aber immer noch bei mageren 27 Prozent. Schlechte Nachrichten bringt die Erhebung für Kanzlerin Merkel: Sie büßt weiter an Vertrauen bei den Wählern ein. FTD, Dec 5,2007 more>>>

Merkel warnt vor Zerfall der EU Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) hat die Pläne von Frankreichs Staatspräsident Nikolas Sarkozy für eine Mittelmeer-Union als Bedrohung für die EU kritisiert. In der Weiterentwicklung könne eine solche Zusammenarbeit dazu führen, «dass die EU in ihrem Kernbereich zerfällt», sagte Merkel. FTD, Dec 5,2007 more>>>

 

Calling Reversals for Public Icons
on the Basis of Extreme Events  
Even though one may not have charts of superstars' waves handy, sometimes events are so extreme as to serve as a top signal. However, just because someone receives an award does not mean that this persona is peaking, and just because he is the subject of a negative article does not mean that this persona is bottoming. To serve as such a signal, an event must truly be an extreme social assessment of value.  

(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter) 

 

From Happy Homemaker
To The Big House To The Last Laugh 

Source: Elliott Wave International

 

Even Near-Term Trends in Mood and Politics 
are Correlated
Major trends, then are quite clear in their electoral influence. What about trends that last mere months? Join me on a roller coaster ride with President George Bush.

The Time magazine cover of August 1989 read, "How Bush Decides: He's smarter than Reagan, less driven than Carter and savvy like Nixon"! Gallup polls of Januar 1990 showed that Bush sported a phenomenal approval rating of 80% at the end of his first year in office compared to
Reagan's 40% , Carter's 55% , and Nixon's 61%. The only higher first-year approval rating recorded was in 1961 when President Kennedy enjoyed the euphoria of all-time stock market highs after the extended Primary wave 3 of the 1950s. The Wall Street Journal on April 20 called
Bush "a man for the season" who "wins praise" and "rides a huge current of political popularity."

On May 1, a political cartoon showed Bush rejoicing that the U.S. had turned "into a one-party system!" A single quarter made a tremendous difference. When the Dow slid 21% from mid-July to mid-October 1990, the Value Line index fell nearly to its 1987 low and the Dow Transports finished a collapse of 47% , the press no longer regarded Bush as a political genius. In October and November, they bombed him with 
derisive headlines and comments such as "Bush May Have Lost 1992 Already," "From Sizzle to Fizzle," "Bush Faces a GOP Revolt," 
"The Bush Blueprint Bombs," "The Carterization of Bush," "Is Bush Presidency Headed for Doom?," and "a quagmire of indecision and ineptitude which could take him the rest of the Presidency to dig out."

The direct effect of the social mood change on the perception of national leaders extended around the world:

England's Margaret Thatcher resigned under pressure after serving for elven years, the longest term for a British Prime Minister this century.

The Prime Minister of Singapore, the longest serving democratically elected head of state, resigned The President of France, according to headlines of the time was "fighting to stay in power" as his administration fell apart.

The President of Brazil's political honeymoon came "to an abrupt end eight months after he came to power," said The Wall Street Journal.

Just four months afte the press unleased its blizzard of derision, the Dow had soared back at 3000.George Bush's approval rating soared right with it, to 91%, the highest in the history of the records.The media loved him again.

 

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Goldman schockiert mit neuer Analyse
Die Hypothekenkrise könnte weitaus dramatischere Folgen für die US-Wirtschaft haben als zunächst angenommen: Ein Bericht der Investmentbank Goldman Sachs kommt auf einen gigantischen Schadensbetrag. FTD.de, Dec 5,2007 more>>>

U.S. Industrial Output  
Unexpectedly Falls on Slowing Auto, Appliance Sales Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped  in October as slowing sales prompted factories to make fewer automobiles and appliances, Bloomberg, Nov 16,2007 
Economy>>>

Jugendliche greifen Polizeiwache in Pariser Vorort an
AP - Sonntag, 25. November, 
Paris (AP) Dutzende Jugendliche haben am Sonntagabend in dem Pariser Vorort Sarcelles eine Polizeiwache angegriffen, nachdem kurz zuvor in einem Nachbarort zwei junge Mopedfahrer beim Zusammenstoß mit einem Streifenwagen ums Leben gekommen waren. Yahoo.de

Streit zwischen Kolumbien und Venezuela eskaliert
AFP 
Kolumbiens Staatschef Álvaro Uribe hat schwere Vorwürfe gegen seinen venezolanischen Kollegen Hugo Chávez erhoben, nachdem dieser das "Einfrieren" der Beziehungen zum Nachbarland verkündet hatte. Yahoo.de, Nov 26,2007

Stalled Condo Projects

Tarnish Trump's Name

November 16, 2007. Even the Trump name isn't bigger than the calamitous condo market. Donald Trump's reputation as a real-estate developer could take a hit as some condominium Projects emblazoned with his famous name run into trouble. WSJ, Nov 16,2007 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119517867398895020.html?mod=hpp_us_editors_picks

 

U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls Again, Longest Streak 
of Declines Since 1981 Homeownership in the U.S. dropped for a fourth consecutive quarter, the longest decline since at least 1981, suggesting more Americans will miss their best chance of building wealth. Bloomberg, Oct 27,2007

For sale: 2 million empty homes
The number of vacant homes on the market nationwide is equal to all the homes in Detroit. Yet another sign of the weak housing market. cnnMoney, Oct 26,2007

 

Keine WM-Babys: Zahl der Geburten gesunken

Wiesbaden (dpa) - Der Baby-Boom nach der Fußball-Weltmeisterschaft
ist ausgeblieben. Die Zahl der Geburten in Deutschland ist auch im ersten Halbjahr 2007 leicht gesunken. Wie das Statistische Bundesamt in Wiesbaden am Dienstag aufgrund vorläufiger Zahlen mitteilte, wurden im ersten Halbjahr des laufenden Jahres 313 100 Kinder geboren. Yahoo.com. See Stock Market Breadth vs. Annual Conceptions>>>

 

Leaving Las Vegas
With Sin City more expensive and crowded, many gamblers are finding Vegas-style alternatives far from the desert. From Biloxi to Detroit, where they're rolling the dice.November 10, 2007. WSJ,

What happens in Vegas ... doesn't have to stay in Vegas anymore. As the world's most popular gambling destination becomes even busier, casino and hotel operators are betting they'll be able to attract a new clientele to other destinations. They're appealing not only to the all-you-can -eat-buffet crowd; they're also trying to entice high rollers who are tired of flying cross-country only to spend an hour crawling through four miles of traffic on the Strip. Socionomics - Gambling

 

BELGIEN
Die Unregierten
Zwei Volksgruppen, ein Land, keine Regierung - seit 151 Tagen ist Belgien politisch blockiert. Der Grund: Der reiche flämische Norden will den darbenden wallonischen Süden nicht länger 
alimentieren. Dabei haben die Flamen gar keine andere Wahl. Spiegel online, Nov 8,2007
Bear markets bring secession movements. 
The Elliott Wave Theorist, August 2001


BREAKING NEWS
October 10, 2007
The Belgian Crackup
Commentary by Marc De Vos
BRUSSELS -- The reports of Belgium's death are greatly exaggerated -- at least for now. Asked again by King Albert II to form a government, Yves Leterme last week relaunched coalition talks. His first trial failed miserably in late August as Flemish and Walloon political parties bickered. This time around the 47-year-old Flemish Christian Democrat has opted for a discreet, behind-the-scenes approach. That may change the atmosphere, but not the substance of his task.

Since his party won in Flanders in the federal elections 122 days ago, Mr. Leterme has been prime minister-in-waiting. All Flemish political parties want more autonomy for Flanders, while all Walloon political parties prefer a unitary Belgium.

The country's problems run deep. Located at the intersection of Latin and German cultures, it was formed almost by accident in the 19th century as a useful buffer state between France and Great Britain. 

Flemings and Walloons are increasingly alienated from each other. The linguistic border that separates Flanders in the north from Wallonia in the south has also become a political and economic border. Flanders is more a mixture of social conservatism and free-market thinking, while Wallonia is a bland of social liberalism and socialism.

For now, Belgium's institutional paralysis looks hopeless but not serious. We are surfing on the waves of a good global economy. In the long term, however, this small country cannot survive if it is unable to address its linguistic divisions and its structural challenges such as the growing economic gap between the Dutch- and French-speaking regions. Without a real constitutional overhaul, today's stalemate will be the pattern for the future. This would gradually erode public support for the kingdom until one day the reports of its demise will no longer be exaggerated.
The Wall Street Journal

THE WHITE HOUSE IS set to announce proposals to toughen policing of imports that would increase the authority of agencies that regulate food and consumer goods. WSJ, Nov 6,2007


IndyMac Reports First Loss in Eight Years as U.S. Mortgage Market Weakens IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the second- largest independent U.S. mortgage lender, reported a loss five times bigger than the company forecast in September as foreclosures and late payments rose to a record. Bloomberg, Nov 6,2007


Citigroup Names Stuckey to Run $43 Billion Subprime Group After Writedowns Citigroup Inc. named Richard Stuckey to manage most of its $43 billion of subprime mortgage assets, choosing the same executive who helped unwind Long-Term Capital Management LP's bad bets nine years ago. Bloomberg, Nov 6,2007



Gold Advances to 27-Year High as Dollar Declines, Crude Oil Reaches Record Gold rose, extending a rally to the highest price since 1980, after crude-oil reached a record and the dollar fell to the lowest ever against the euro. Silver also gained. Bloomberg, Nov 6,2007



Euro Zone Factory Growth Slows Down Sharply

Asian Stocks Slide on Subprime Concerns; Mitsubishi UFJ Falls 

Weill's Earnings Machine Stalls as Citigroup Writedowns Deepen 

Mortgage mess hitting WaMu hard
more>>>

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Forex: It's Not the News That Matters 
11/1/2007 7:12:45 PM  Elliott Wave International


U.S. Banks Face $10 Billion More Writedowns: Analyst
Large U.S. banks and brokerages will suffer additional writedowns of more than $10 billion in the fourth quarter as deteriorating credit trends continue to undercut the value of subprime mortgages and related securities, a Deutsche Bank analyst said. CNBC, Nov 2,2007

Merrill's Stock--And Image-- Take a Big Hit in Markets
Merrill Lynch's credibility and stock took a big hit Friday on reports that the biggest brokerage firm sought to delay billions of dollars of losses on troubled assets by moving them to hedge funds.CNBC, Nov 2,2007

Gold Futures Climb Above $800 as Credit Concerns Spark Demand for Haven Gold rose 2 percent to close above $800 an ounce in New York for the first time since Jimmy Carter was president on demand from investors seeking a haven from declines in the dollar and U.S. assets. Silver also gained.
Bloomberg, Nov 2,2007

Copper Futures Cap Biggest Weekly Loss
in 11 Weeks as Inventories Climb Copper dropped, capping the biggest weekly loss in 11 weeks, as rising inventories spurred concern that demand may be dwindling. Bloomberg, Nov 2,2007

 

The Sky Isn’t Falling—Yet
Bubbles tend to peak when stock prices reach 50 to 60 times projected earnings. China's domestic market is around 35.
NEWSWEEK, Nov 5, 2007 Issue 

Spanish royal enclave trip irks Morocco

Morocco recalls ambassador after Spanish royals announce visit to disputed enclaves AP Nov 2, 2007 

Morocco recalled its ambassador from Spain on Friday after what it called a "regrettable" plan by Spain's king and queen to visit two enclaves claimed by Morocco _ the first such trip by a Spanish 
monarch in 80 years.

 

Citigroup Stock Plunges On Worries About Capital .That's a stretch. But speculation that the largest U.S. bank might need to cut its dividend to boost relatively low capital levels is sending some shareholders to the exits. It also helped trigger a huge selloff on Wall Street. CNN November 2,2007

Citigroup reached toptick on December 28,2006 and the secondary top occurred on May 23,2007. JPM reached top on May 07,2007 and secondary top on July 17,2007.  See Charts>>>

November 02, 2007

Question of Solvency at Citigroup
by Mike Shedlock

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8742.htm

U.S. Banks Face $10 Billion More Writedowns: 

AnalystLarge U.S. banks and brokerages will suffer 
additional writedowns of more than $10 billion in the fourth quarter as deteriorating credit trends continue, a Deutsche Bank analyst said. CNN, Nov 2,2007

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