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EZB/Nowotny: Gute Gründe für erhöhte Wachsamkeit bei Inflation

WIEN (Dow Jones)--Der neue Gouverneur der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank, Ewald Nowotny, hat vor anhaltenden Inflationsrisiken im Euroraum gewarnt. Bei seiner ersten Pressekonferenz als Notenbankgouverneur und Ratsmitglied der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) sagte Nowotny am Freitag, der Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise im Euroraum scheine zwar den Gipfel erreicht zu haben, Zweitrundeneffekte drohten aber die Inflation auf einem hohen Niveau zu halten. 

Es gebe weiterhin ausreichend Gründe für eine erhöhte Wachsamkeit hinsichtlich der Inflationsgefahren, betonte Nowotny. Er forderte Politiker, Unternehmen und Beschäftigte in Europa auf, bei Ausgaben, Preiserhöhungen und Tarifverhandlungen maßvoll vorzugehen.Die EZB alleine könne die Inflation nicht unter Kontrolle halten. Nowotny hat zum 1. September die Nachfolge von Klaus Liebscher angetreten. 

Siehe auch: Paul C. Martin, "Das 1x1 der Wirtschaft"
http://www.miprox.de/Wirtschaft_allgemein/Das_1mal1_der_Wirtschaft.html

DAX, January 4, 2008

© ELLIOTT today, July 4 2008

on mouse over please see DAX of July 4, 2008

Out of the Channel

Chart: futuresource.com

More Media News........

                                 
 Deutsche Autobranche

Hersteller und Händler vor harten Zeiten
FTD, July 2, 2008



Pfandbriefhandel liegt auf Eis
FTD, Mar 14,2008


Märkte geraten außer Kontrolle
FTD, Mar 14,2008


Banker verzweifeln - Politik machtlos
Spiegel de., Mar 19,2008



Bear Stearns geht unter - US- Finanzminister in der Kritik
Eine Traditionsbank versinkt, die 
Börse wird panisch: Das Investmenthaus Bear Stearns entgeht haarscharf der Pleite - 
und wird zum Ramschpreis an einen Konkurrenten verkauft.
Spiegel de., Mar 17,2008 




Toyota Feels Pinch 
The auto industry's sales slump deepened sharply in March amid a powerful economic 
downdraft, and even once-invincible Toyota Motor Corp. took a big hit. WSJ, April 02, 2008




Pfandbriefe
Spaniens Immobilienkrise verschärft sich
Wie von einigen Beobachtern erwartet, beginnt das Ausmaß der krisenhaften Entwicklung an Spaniens Immobilienmarkt nach den Wahlen immer deutlicher zu werden. Nach einer „sanften Landung“ sieht es immer weniger aus. FAZ, April 4,2008

USA verlieren massenweise Jobs
Erstmals seit zweieinhalb Jahren ist die Arbeitslosenquote in den USA auf mehr als fünf Prozent gestiegen. Aus der Sicht von Volkswirten ist die Lage schlecht und die Rezession ganz nahe. FTD, April 5,2008




German Bank Sets Bigger Write-Down 
April 4, 2008. A large German-owned bank, BayernLB, said Thursday that it would write down 4.3 billion euros ($6.7 billion), double its previous estimate, as the contagion from the tight credit market continued to spread to state-owned banks in Germany. New York Times, April 4, 2008




Anleger ignorieren schlechte Nachrichten
Die gestiegene Arbeitslosenquote in den USA lässt die Anleger kalt. Viele sind offenbar 
zuversichtlich, dass eine lange Rezession noch verhindert werden könnte. Zuversichtlich 
schauen sie nach vorn - auf den Start der neue Quartalssaison. Und die könnte den 
Aktienmarkt sogar beflügeln. FTD, April 6, 2008




Immobilienkrise erreicht New Yorks Reiche
In den subprime-verseuchten USA gilt Manhattan als Insel der Seligen - noch. Zwar steigen 
die Wohnungspreise. Aber selbst das werten Experten schon als Krisensignal. 
FTD, April 6, 2008





Aktien übergewichten!
Die Dresdner Bank empfiehlt Aktieninvestoren eine Erhöhung der Aktienquote sowie die 
Übergewichtung von Aktien im Depot. Der Dollar wird wieder stärker.
Boerse-online.de, April 5, 2008




DAX ist bärenstark 
Trotz der deutlich schlechter als erwarteten US-Arbeitsmarktzahlen beendet der deutsche 
Blue-Chip-Index den Tag und auch die Woche im Plus. Boerse-online.de, April 5, 2008

DAX, March 24,2007

Pullback Complete?

(c) ELLIOTT today

Chart: futuresource.com

Planet Yelnick just released an article entitled "Tech IPO's keep coming." Yelnick wrote, "The recent spike down
in the markets have not spooked investors (yet) from speculative offerings." This is classic B-wave behavior! As of
Friday's close the DJIA retraced just 62% of the preceding decline, the same is true in the NASDAQ Composite.
Watch Fibonacci! http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/

 

DaimlerChrysler - Chronik einer Auto-Ehe 

Als Vision einer „Welt AG“ gestartet, steht die Auto-Ehe zwischen Daimler-Benz und Chrysler wegen Problemen bei Chrysler erneut vor großen Problemen. Mai 1998: Die Stuttgarter Daimler-Benz AG und die amerikanische Chrysler Corporation verhandeln über einen Zusammenschluss mittels eines Aktienumtauschs. Daimler-Benz-Chef Jürgen Schrempp 
sieht darin seine Vision einer „Welt AG“. 

17. November 1998: Der Zusammenschluss wird vollzogen, und es entsteht der drittgrößte Autohersteller der Welt. Schrempp und Chrysler-Chef Robert Eaton führen den Konzern zunächst gemeinsam. Die DaimlerChrysler-Aktie wird erstmals an der New Yorker Börse gehandelt.

17. November 2000: Nach anhaltenden Verlusten wird James Holden entlassen, der für Eaton im Frühjahr an die Chrysler-Spitze gewechselt war. Neuer Chef des in einer Absatzkrise steckenden Autobauers wird Dieter Zetsche. Dieser kündigt umgehend Stellenstreichungen an: 30 000 Chrysler-Mitarbeiter sollen gehen.

 

Konzern zu verkaufen

Wie Daimler Chrysler vertickt
Mit Chrysler wollte Daimler zum Weltkonzern aufsteigen. Daraus wurde nichts, die amerikanischen Autosparte sorgte für Milliardenverluste. Nun will sich Konzern-Chef Dieter Zetsche von Chrsyler trennen. Die Bieterschlacht hat angeblich schon begonnen. Die Welt 24.3.2007

Inclusion/Exclusion: 
A rising mood leads to feelings of social brotherhood and acceptance among races, religious and political territories, as well as toward animals, plants and proposed aliens. A falling mood leads to apartheid, religious animosity, cavalier
cruelty, sezession, independence movements and images of aliens as monsters. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter)

 

50 JAHRE EU
Gemeinschaft in der Midlife-Crisis

In dem Text von Spiegel online heisst es u.a. "Europa hatte zum ersten Mal erlebt, was für ein Geschacher die Herstellung von Kompromissen zwischen Nationalstaaten bedeutet. Allein die Frage, ob geräucherter Schinken als Agrarprodukt zu gelten habe und damit von der ersten Stufe der Wirtschaftgemeinschaft ausgenommen werden könne, führte die Verhandlungsführer
an den Rand der Verzweiflung. Zu allem Unglück machte sich Großbritannien daran, mit Dänemark, Österreich, Norwegen, Portugal, Schweden und der Schweiz eine Art Gegengemeinschaft zu eröffnen - die Europäische Freihandelsassoziation (Efta)." Der Spiegel online, 24.3.2007

Celebrating the DAX, February 3, 2007. 

Feierlaune: Die Börsianer in Frankfurt sind gut gestimmt wie lange nicht mehr.

DAX, March 14,2007

(c) ELLIOTT today

Chart: futuresource.com

Achtung! 

Börse Online
DAX-Stimmung von Kursverlusten überraschend unbeeindruckt 
Donnerstag 1. März 2007
Die Reaktion der Investoren am deutschen Aktienmarkt auf die DAX-Entwicklung seit Wochenbeginn ist überraschend: Nur wenige Bullen wandern ins Bärenlager. Die (immer noch) überwiegend optimistische Stimmung birgt weiterhin Nachfragepotenzial. 

Despite a lack of fear confidence is still riding high as some headlines suggest: 

"Now Isn't Time to Panic Over Market." 
"Prepare for Yet More Bull in the Market"
"Wall Street Still Running With Bulls" 
"Accept Market's Volatility"
"It's a Fluctuation, Not a Market Crash: No Cause for Panic"
"Why I'm the Mr.Happy of the Stock Market"

Börsen nach dem Kursrutsch 
Nervöse Zuckungen
Japan steht noch immer unter Schock, in den USA dagegen hat sich die Lage beruhigt: An der Wall Street entwickelten sich die Kurse wieder kräftiger. Die Börse in Tokio aber rutschte wieder ins Minus – der deutsche Leitindex Dax erholte sich. 
Die Welt online, .6.3.2007

Börsen nach dem Kursrutsch?  

How will they know?

Complacency!?

OUT OF THE BLUE?

DAX - Classic Elliott

5 Waves UP

(c) ELLIOTT today,  03/06/2007

Chart: futuresource.com

Achtung! 

Börse Online
DAX-Stimmung von Kursverlusten überraschend unbeeindruckt 
Donnerstag 1. März 2007
Die Reaktion der Investoren am deutschen Aktienmarkt auf die DAX-Entwicklung seit Wochenbeginn ist überraschend: Nur wenige Bullen wandern ins Bärenlager. Die (immer noch) überwiegend optimistische Stimmung birgt weiterhin Nachfragepotenzial. 

Umfrage
Fondsmanager setzen weiterhin auf Aktien 
15. Februar 2007 Fondsmanager haben nach der aktuellsten globalen Umfrage von Merrill Lynch
ihre bisher etwas skeptischen Konjunkturerwartungen „überholt“ und sind optimistischer geworden.
FAZ, 17.02.2007

Schweiz
Börsianer stürmen den Gipfel 
Der Schweizer Aktienindex SMI hat die magische 9000er-Marke genommen. 
Wie Anleger am weiteren Anstieg verdienen können. Focus, 2.2.2007

 

Socionomics erklärt:

Linear Extrapolation: "Predicting" the Present
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 by Robert R. Prechter) 

Trend extrapolation is the crudest form of technical analysis, and it is employed by nearly all conventional analysts, though they rarely realize it. Mainstream social and economic forecasting has forever been a practice of extrapolating present and recent conditions and trend into the future. 

The basis of the Wave Principle is that prices unfold in "five waves" of crowd psychological development 
when moving in the direction of the one larger trend, and "three waves" when moving against. The size of
the trend, per se, and whether the trend of one larger degree is up or down, per se, are not determinants
of the subdivisions. Thus, in a Primary uptrend, an Intermediate advance occurs in five waves, moving up-down-up-down-up according to certain rules, and an Intermediate reaction occurs in three waves (down-up-down). 

While knowledge of current events and extramarket conditions has almost no value
in predicting the stock market, knowledge about the position of the market can help
predict changes in outside conditions. The Wave Principle provides a basis for 
speculating upon upcoming changes in market trends and therefore the events that 
result from the social psychology that the trend changes represent. 
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter) 

 

Fans of Elliott wave analysis know that the position of the stock market shows more than just the combined value of its stocks. The stock market is also a barometer of the society's collective emotion - or social mood, as Elliotticians call it. What's more, the trend in stocks is a usually a leading indicator of the changes in business and investor sentiment numbers. When stocks fall, they signal a worsening mood, when common feelings of pessimism start to take over. And as you can see, the DAX has been in the doldrums since mid-May, indicating a shift in the mood to the negative.

"Expectations about the coming months in the manufacturing and retailing sectors have worsened," say economists about the drop in Germany's business sentiment. Fine, they have worsened -- but what does that explain? Nothing; worse, is does nothing to help you forecast the economic trends. Based on this information, what would you say the Ifo business climate index will do in September -- fall some more or rise "unexpectedly"? If only traditional economists saw the stock market for what it really is -- i.e., the economy's leading indicator -- they would get far fewer surprises…

Global Markets Fall Again on Fears About U.S. Economy 
Stock markets fell sharply across most of Asia again today and continued declining in Europe, as investors worried about the drop on Tuesday in American stock indices and a Commerce Department report. NYT Feb 28,2007



Global markets struggle to recover from sell-off
February 28, 2007 

(CNN) -- Global markets are struggling to recover from a massive sell-off Tuesday that pummeled stocks and sent shock waves through the investment world. The rout -- which started in China and snowballed into Europe and Wall Street -- slowed slightly on Wednesday as investors bought up stocks at the lower prices and many analysts called for calm. 


and rationalization:

Zhou Lin, of Huatai Securities, added: "The medium- and long-term outlook for the market is not bad. If the index doesn't fall again tomorrow, the market might start recovering."



Frankfurt
Die neue runde Börse
Der Handelssaal der Frankfurter Börse ist wiedereröffnet. Fünf Millionen Euro hat der viermonatige Umbau gekostet. Eher eine symbolische Investition: Auf dem Parkett wird kaum mehr gehandelt. Wie zur Feier des Tages steigt der Dax wieder über 7000 Punkte. 





AKTIEN AUF TALFAHRT
Dax nach asiatischem Börsenbeben noch tiefer im Minus
Geht es weiter bergab oder war es nur eine kurzfristige Korrektur? Börsianer schauen nach dem schwarzen Dienstag gebannt auf die Kurse. Die Anleger stießen nach einem Einbruch der Börse von Schanghai am Dienstag ihre Papiere zum Teil panikartig ab. Besonders die Börse von Singapur, an der viele chinesische Unternehmen notiert sind, ging auf Talfahrt. Auch der Tokioter Handel verzeichnete durchweg Verluste. In Schanghai selbst stabilisierten sich die Kurse. Focus money, 02/28/2007



Shanghai Selloff Forces Investors to Reassess Economic Outlook

A dramatic plunge in stocks world-wide is forcing global investors to reevaluate their appetite for risk. The Dow industrials sank 416.02 points, or 3.3%, to 12216.24, their worst one-day decline since Sept. 17, 2001. The retreat was triggered by an 8.8% selloff in Shanghai overnight. Markets in France and Germany fell 3% and Brazil lost 6.6%. A sudden 200-point tumble in the Dow at 3 p.m. was the result of a glitch in how Dow Jones calculates the average. 
WSJ, Feb 28, 2007



Latest Market Update
February 28, 2007 
[BRIEFING.COM] With many believing that the stock market had gotten ahead of itself, it appears Tuesday's drubbing may have been the long-overdue consolidation that had been talked about for some time. As a result, a sense that yesterday's... 

Stocks suffered their worst losses since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, prompted by a huge sell-off in China's stock market, higher oil prices and some disappointing economic news. 

The Dow Jones industrials, briefly down as much as 545 points, finished the day off 416 points, or nearly 3.3%, to 12,217. The Nasdaq Composite Index plunged more than 96 points, or 3.9%, to 2,408, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled about 50 points, 3.47%, to just under 1,400, its lowest level in nearly three months.

The U.S. market may well face more turmoil tomorrow. In mid-morning trading in Tokyo on Wednesday, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index was down 606 points, 3.4%, to 17,534.

The market decline wiped out all of the year's gains for the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The Dow is now down 2% for the year; the S&P 500 is down 1.4%. The Nasdaq is off 0.3%; a week ago it had been up 4.5%.

The sell-off was compounded when computers controlling orders to the New York Stock Exchange couldn't keep up with the record volume. The computers used to tabulate the Dow also couldn't keep up.

The declines were the largest for the major averages since markets reopened on Sept. 17, 2001, after the terror attacks on the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. That day, the Dow fell nearly 685 points, the S&P plunged nearly 54 points, and the Nasdaq sank 116 points. 

Today's Dow's loss was also the biggest percentage decline since the index fell 3.67% on March 24, 2003 -- just before the United States invaded Iraq. 

The selling produced the biggest volume ever on the New York Stock Exchange -- about 2.3 billion shares. Down volume on the NYSE was 2.2 billion shares. Volume on Nasdaq hit a record 2.78 billion shares.



"When trends reach extremes, reporters no longer require the services of financial professionals to express an opinion; the continuation of the trend is so obvious to them that they become convinced that anyone can do it, and they take on the forecasting themselves. Error at such times is guaranteed." (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior)

Today, total margin debt for NYSE and NASD firms has set a new record. Mutual funds cash to asset ratio is at a record low. I could go on and on recognizing financial and social signs of a peaking financial mania with facts and figures, but that holds little sway against entrenched consensus -- especially one in party mode. Alan Hall, EWI, 02/20/2007

---

 

CELEBRATING THE DAX

DAX, February 03, 2007
(c) ELLIOTT today,  02/03/2007

Chart: futuresource.com

Unless the market is going to produce an extension, the top should be in ! Note: since June 2004 the market trades below the rising 1x1.

DAX, daily

(c) ELLIOTT today,  01/16/2007

Chart: futuresource.com

Slightly different labeling, but the message remains the same: close to target. 

5 Waves UP & an Elliott Parallel Trendchannel

DAX, weekly 

(c) ELLIOTT today, January 13,2007 

Chart: futuresource.com

Elliott used parallel trend channels to assist in determining normal wave targets and to provide clues
to possible development of trends. In The Wave Principle, he asserted that as a wave progresses,
"it is necessary that the movement be channeled between two parallel lines." 

He regarded trend channeling as an important tool in establishing wave completion targets and in the segregation of individual waves. The complete channeling technique involves several steps and revisions. 
It requires at least three reference points before two parallel lines can be drawn. As the waves nears completion, the line which connects the ends of wave one and four is the most reliable lower parallel for constructing the final trend channel. If waves one and three are normal, the upper parallel is most accurate when drawn touching the peak of the third wave .

The guideline of alternation touches almost every aspect of the Wave Principle and is a useful one to keep
in mind when analyzing wave formations and assessing future possibilities. The guideline tells us to expect alternating patterns in virtually all wave movements. If, for example, corrective wave two cuts sharply against
the trend, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa.   

As can be seen on the chart the upper parallel of the channel touches the scale in the DAX to the minute. 

DAX, daily

Chart: futuresource.com

Five waves up, nearly so.

DAX & Social Mood

(c) ELLIOTT today, 14.Dez 2006

Bundesregierung: Der Aufschwung ist da" Die Zeit, 8.Sept. 2006

Artkel einer großen deutschen Tageszeitung, erschienen am 14.Dezember 2006 mit dem Titel: 

"Aufschwung 2007"  und die "Die Aussichten sind günstig" heisst es, 

"Wirtschaftsinstitute und Wirtschaft überschlagen sich mit guten Nachrichten: 
RWI und Ifo-Institut erhöhen ihre Prognosen für 2007, der Deutsche Industrie- und 
Handelskammertag rechnet mit 200.000 neuen Jobs."

Und weiter heißt es: 

"Der kräftige Konjunkturaufschwung in Deutschland, sind sich die Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute einig, 
wird im kommenden Jahr nicht abreißen." 

Wegen günstiger Investitionsbedingungen und des positiven internationalen Umfelds werde die Wirtschaft um 1,9 Prozent wachsen, teilte das Rheinisch-Westfälische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) heute mit. 

Bislang waren die Forscher von 1,7 Prozent ausgegangen. Für das laufende Jahr gehen sie von 2,5 Prozent aus. 
Auch das Münchner Ifo-Institut sagt für 2007 ein Plus von 1,9 Prozent voraus, das Kieler IfW sogar eines von 2,1 Prozent. 
Auch der Bankenverband erhöhte seine Prognose von einem auf bis zu 1,5 Prozent.

Nach Angaben des Ifo-Instituts ist die Auslandsnachfrage die treibende Kraft des Booms in Deutschland. Diese habe trotz 
der diesjährigen kräftigen Aufwertung des Euro gegenüber dem Dollar aufgrund der schwungvollen Weltkonjunktur erneut 
sehr kräftig zugelegt. Anders als im Vorjahr sei aber auch die Binnenkonjunktur in Schwung gekommen.

 

Linear Extrapolation: "Predicting" the Present

Trend extrapolation is the crudest form of technical analysis, and it is employed by nearly all conventional analysts, though they rarely realize it. Mainstream social and economic forecasting has forever been a practice of extrapolating present and recent conditions and trend into the future. 

(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 by Robert R. Prechter) 

 

open chart 

DAX, Dec 1,2006

 

 

Chart: futuresource.com

 

Ein Markt-Kommentar vom 30.Novmeber 2006 ist der Meinung, daß "Auf den Börsen lastete aber vor allem der Konjunkturindex der Einkaufsmanager aus dem Großraum Chicago (PMI), der im November unerwartet auf 
den tiefsten Stand seit fast vier Jahren gefallen war." 

Das an den Finanzmärkten stark beachtete Barometer sank auf 49,9 Punkte und signalisierte damit erstmals seit 
dreieinhalb Jahren eine Kontraktion. 

Weiter heißt es, "Die Märkte wurden von dieser Entwicklung überrascht, da Volkswirte mit einem Anstieg 
gerechnet hatten."

Surprise, surprise.

"Der PMI ist schwächer als erwartet, diese Nachricht wird nicht gern gehört", sagte....von....mit Blick auf die 
unterschwellige Sorge der Anleger um das künftige Wirtschaftswachstum. 

Unterschwellige Sorge!

"Die Investoren zögern, den Markt weiter in die Höhe zu treiben", sagte ..."Doch die Impulse waren nicht eindeutig." Andererseits seien nämlich Fonds-Manager vor dem Jahresende auf Einkaufstour und brächten  so die Wall Street in 
Schwung, sagte... 11/30/2006 

 

 

 

 

The chart of the Ifo Business Climate Index displays a clear five-wave structure according
to the Wave Principle, indicating German business sentiment heads toward a top. See Socionomics

 

 

The Economy

The standard presumption is that the state of the economy is a key determinant of  the stock market’s trends. All day long
on financial television and year after year in financial print media, investors debate the state of the economy for clues to the future course of the stock market.If this presumed causal relationship actually existed, then there would be some evidence that the economy leads the stock market. On the contrary, for decades, the Commerce Department of the federal government has identified the stock market as a leading indicator of the economy, which is indeed the case. 

If the standard presumption were true, then changes in the economy would coincide with or precede trend changes in aggregate stock prices. However, a study of Figure 1 will show that changes in the economy coincide with or follow trend changes in aggregate stock prices. Except for the timing of the recession of 1946 (which supports neither case), all economic contractions came upon or after a downturn in aggregate stock prices, and all economic recoveries came upon or after an upturn in aggregate stock prices. In not one case did a contraction or recovery precede a change in aggregate stock prices, which would repeatedly be the case if investors in fact reacted to economic trends and events. This chronology persists back into the nineteenth century as far as the data goes.

The socionomic hypothesis explains the data. Changes in the stock market immediately reflect the changes in endogenous social mood. As social mood becomes increasingly positive, productive activity increases; as social mood becomes increasingly negative, productive activity decreases. These results show up in lagging economic statistics as expansions and recessions. The standard presumption has no explanation for the relative timing of these two phenomena.

Socionomics erklärt:

"A rising mood leads to substantial consensus in politics, culture and social vision; a falling mood leads to a divided, radical climate. After the social mood has risen for a number of years, the society tends to be peaceful; after it has fallen for a number of years, it tends to become involved in wars." 

(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, Robert R.Prechter,1999).

 

Um nicht mißverstanden zu werden:

Selbstverständlich wünschte ich Deutschland, der Euro-Zone und der ganzen Welt einen langanhaltenden Aufschwung.

Aber...

Die renommierte Researchfirma  BCA Research  (Independent Investment Research Since 1949)
kommt in ihrer jüngsten Analyse zu der folgenden Einschätzung 

Euro Area Economic Growth: Peaking 

December 05, 2006 

The euro area economy is likely at the point of maximum acceleration. 

A host of recently released data show that the euro area economy is in great shape—in stark contrast to the U.S.. Both industrial and consumer confidence are surging higher, and the unemployment rate has dropped to multi-year lows. Looking ahead, this apparent decoupling with the U.S. (and Japan) is unlikely to persist. Historically, the highly cyclical euro area industrial confidence indicator lags the U.S. ISM by roughly 6-months. If past patterns hold, euro area growth momentum is currently at a peak. Nonetheless, a big savings cushion and ample liquidity conditions should ensure that the growth slowdown is limited. Bottom line: the euro area economy should hold up better than most expect, but a marked decoupling from the U.S. is unlikely. 

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20061205.GIF

 

Chart: futuresource.com

At its core, Elliott wave analysis is all about "fives and threes." If you can count on a chart five waves in one direction and then three waves in the opposite direction (and make sure that all 3 Rules of Elliott and the maximum number of guidelines are observed) chances are, you've got a completed -- and likely tradable -- 
wave count.

 

DAX, Weekly Chart, December 1,2006

© ELLIOTT today, December 1, 2006

Chart: Futuresource.com

According to P.Q.Wall research, October 8 through 10,2002 was the end of a 5,5 year Kitchin cycle. It was the low for the
DJIA, the NASDAQ Composite Index, the NASDAQ 100 and the New York Composite Index. On October 10 the Industrials '
dipped to 7197. In the end the intra-day spring low of March 12 was 7416. So Wall Cycle One of the new Kitchen Cycle has accomplished a scorching net gain of 200 points! But the truth was that since October the downward momentum was drying 
up and stocks began refusing to fall further. 

On December 02, 2005, ELLIOTT today had this to say: 

A bullish alternate count points to 5863, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the year 2000. 
Waves 1,2,3 and 4 off the August 2004 low can be counted as a bullish 1-2, (i)-(ii), too, suggesting a superbullish 
wave 3 of 5 of (c) lies ahead. If so, (we are dealing with possibilities) such a target could be achieved in the first quarter
of 2006. For the time being, we're watching the levels given by the Gann lines at 4800, 4600 and 4100. 

So far, this was a good description of what has been developing. From an Elliott standpoint, the big news is that the DAX
has just traced out five waves up from the March 2003 low, a clear cut impulse wave. 

From a  wave perspective, the upper parallel trend channel line points to much higher prices, probably into
the 6500s area, depending on the time window. Under the preferred interpretation, which views the pattern as a five-wave structure, wave (1) gained 90%, wave (3) gained 71%. Thus, wave (5) now underway should be shorter than  wave (3) since
wave three "is often the longest and never the shortest of the three impulse waves in a five-wave sequence." (EWP,p.53). 

In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Waves 1, 3 and 5 actually effect the directional movement. Waves 2 and 4 are countertrend interruptions. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for
overall directional movement to occur. Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form. They are: Wave two never moves beyond the start of wave one, wave three is never the shortest wave, and wave four never enters the price territory of 
wave one. The stock market is always somewhere in the five-wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five-wave pattern is the overriding form of market progress, all other patterns are subsumed by it. In the case of the DAX,
the five pattern is clearly visible. The only question is, whether its wave five of large degree or wave A as part of a much
bigger corrective formation. 

The May to June/July swan is best counted as wave four and the fact that the correction displayed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave (3) supports the analysis. Further evidence for a wave four triangle can be gleaned from the fact, that 
at the end of the triangle, wave (4) corrected 23.6% which is 0.618 of 38.2%. The steady upward move since August confirms the action following a triangle, in fact R.N. Elliott called it a "thrust." 

More often than not, fifth waves tend to reach the upper parallel line of an Elliott trend channel which in the case 
of the DAX is the area of 6800+ and that's also the area of a 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the decline 8136 to 2188. 

This doesn't mean the DAX has to go to that level. As the chart reveals, five waves up from the July lows can be counted as complete or nearly so indicating the market may have reached an important juncture. Going all the way back to October/December 1974, important lows (in the Dow) occurred in March 1978, September 1981, July 1984, October 1987, Janaury 1991, April 1994 and October 1997. Each is separated by 3 years plus 3-6 months, the only exception being the 1984 low, which came five months early. Since 1990, each 3.3 year cycle correction has been outrageously shallow, which has thrown us off the track three times. It bottomed again on schedule at the October 1997 low. The 1997 bottom brought 
the infamous market meltdown in Asia. Its next scheduled bottom was September 2001 right in time with the terrorist attack against the WTC in New York. In August 2004 the cycle was relative mild and the leap out of the bottom produced a very strong up move supporting the fact that wave (3) in the DAX was underway. If this cycle progresses accordingly the next major cycle low is expected in late 2007. When larger cycles are down (as in this case the 5.5 year Kitchen), smaller cycles often top early, and when they do, they end in a crash, as in 1929 and 1987. 

Summary: Elliott waves, momentum, sentiment indicators and cycles indicate that the 3.3. year cycle is being overwhelmed
by bearish forces right now. As the chart reveals, the 5.5 year Kitchen cycle is declining sharply against an upward bias in the market and a drop larger than the April-Juni 2006 correction strongly suggests, that the DAX has reached a top of major proportion. It would therefore constitute a warning that larger downward forces have gained the upper hand. 

 

 

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DAX & Crude Oil

Crude Oil

(c) ELLIOTT today, Oct 24, 2006  

open chart

Crude Oil, October 24, 2006

 

CNBC Market Dispatches 
6/23/2005 

Crude at $60, trade concerns pummel stocks

Just having crude touch $60 unnerves investors; Dow off 166. Senators debate whether China can buy Unocal and plays fair on trade. Today's market close was a shock, and that's an understatement. When the price of crude oil hit $60 a barrel in mid-afternoon trading, a mixed stock market suddenly turned into a battered market. The Dow Jones industrials finished down 166 points. The Nasdaq Composite, which had been up until about 2 p.m., fell back to a 21-point loss, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell more than 11.5 points. The Dow's point loss was its worst since June 3 and its first loss greater than 100 points since May 12.

Msn Market Dispatches 7/17/2006 
Mideast violence threatens stocks
Investors react to each bit of news out of the Middle East. Oil prices retreat. 

Market Dispatches 9/11/2006 
Oil slides, but so do stocks
Crude falls below $66 per barrel as OPEC meets today. 

Market Dispatches 9/12/2006 
Lower rates, falling crude push Dow up 101
Crude falls under $64, and interest rates fall. Dow jumps more than 101, nears May 10 high.

Market Dispatches 9/14/2006 
Stocks slip on falling energy prices
Dow off nearly 16, but natural gas tumbles nearly 10% on unexpected supply gains.

 

The charts speak for themselves. The notion that "higher energy prices are bad for the stock market" is fiction poorly disguised as fact. The charts prove it beyond a reasonable doubt. 

Said Elliott Wave International's Market Watch:

"Oil prices are making headlines again. The London-traded Brent crude oil set a new record today and is now 37% higher on the year. At the same time, the six major European stock indexes are up an average of 19% for the year, too."

The media, however, continues latching on to this argument. 

Socionomics explains:

What do these fixations have in common? First, they reveal a desire among investors to have one simple indicator of the future course of stock prices. 

Second, not one of them is an indicator derived from market activity itself; each
one is from outside the market and simply presumed to have an impact upon it.

Third, all have apparently logical explanations. Fourth, intense scrutiny of each one of these "key figures" was in fact counterproductive to a correct assessment of the trend of the stock market. All served to keep investors' eyes off the ball. 

Finally, each new key-relationship claim appeared at first blush to sound reasonable, but it was the least bit investigated, as in each case, a brief glance at
a graph would have instantly debunked the claim. Nobody, it seems, ever bothered to look.

DAX April>>>

 

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