What Moves Markets? News? Think Again
The mood of the crowd precedes action in the markets.
By Editorial Staff
Mon, 29 Mar 2010
The absolute majority of investors believe that what happens in the markets affects the mood of the marketplace. Every day, you hear commentators say that "falling stocks are sending a bearish signal to investors," or that "the rally is adding optimism."
But the reality is that the mood of the crowd precedes action in the markets. In other words,
the conventional understanding of causality is 100% backwards. Let me repeat: mood comes first.
That's a radical idea. Yet for a careful market observer, it's the only one that explains "inconsistencies" in the markets -- for example, those frequent instances when stocks rally on "bearish" news or decline after a "bullish" report. Conventional analysts sweep those under the rug. But socionomics, a relatively new science pioneered by Elliott Wave International's president Robert Prechter, explains those "inconsistencies" with simple brilliance. Social mood changes first, says Prechter -- and he also proves it on multiple examples. Only after the mood changes do bullish-minded investors buy stocks. Only after the mood changes do bearish traders start looking for an excuse to sell. Mood is primary to market action -- and to social events. >>>
Wirtschaftseuphorie sorgt für Kurseuphorie
FAZ.net, April 23,2010
In der deutschen Wirtschaft macht sich Frühlingslaune breit. Ein positiv interpretierter
Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex sorgt zusammen mit der Erwartung auf Nachrichten über die mögliche Lösung der Griechenlandkrise zu Kursgewinnen an den Börsen.Anmerkung: 3 Tage später, am 26.April 2010 erreichte der DAX 6342 Punkte, das Top !!
DAX, weekly
(c) ELLIOTT today, June 26.,2010
Chart: futuresource.com
DAX, June 26.2010
With regard to "Double Threes" or "Triple Threes" (EWP p.44-46), ...the market is hesitating and acts as if one three weren' t enough, as if more time were needed to straighten out whatever "reasons" the market had for pausing in the first place. Sometimes stock prices seem to be waiting for economic fundamentals to begin to catch up with the market's expectations. For the most part, double threes and triple threes are horizontal in character. Elliott indicated, that the entire formations could slant against the larger trend, although we have found this to be the case only if at least one of the trees is a zigzag. Actually in the case of the DAX, the first a-b-c is a zigzag, the second a flat (3-3-5), thus, they alternate. The actual labeling suggests, the countertrend move in the DAX has finally ended, but there is always an alternate count, which allows for slightly higher prices and we will not ignore it. The last advance may trace out another leg to the upside producing itself a smaller version of an a-b-c x a-b-c complex pattern. In this case, the second or even third a-b-c has to be recounted. While there are strong arguments for the prefered count as shown today, the investor should be preserved for what the U.S. markets more strongly indicate for the future: "a hard day's night."
Börse
VW und Daimler bremsen Dax aus
Die Skeptiker haben am Aktienmarkt wieder die Oberhand. Zum Wochenschluss prägten
Zweifel an der langfristigen Zahlungsfähigkeit Griechenlands sowie an der weltweiten
Konjunkturerholung die Stimmung. Auch neue US-Daten enttäuschten. VW und Daimler
gaben deutlich nach, der Dax verliert auf Wochensicht knapp 3 Prozent.
manager-magazin de., 26.Juni 2010
Wohnungsbau
Abschwung findet keinen Boden
In Deutschland sind im vergangenen Jahr nur 159000 Wohnungen fertiggestellt worden. Die langfristige demographische Entwicklung und die kurzfristige Verunsicherung durch die Wirtschaftskrise zeigen Wirkung.
focus. 25. Juni 2010 Der Wohnungsbau in Deutschland ist auf einem neuen Tiefpunkt angekommen. Nach den inzwischen vorliegenden Zahlen des Statistischen Bundesamtes in Wiesbaden wurden im vergangenen Jahr 159000 Wohnungen fertiggestellt. Das sind noch einmal 17000 Wohnungen weniger als in dem ohnehin schon schwachen Vorjahr und entspricht einem Rückgang von 9,6 Prozent.
focus. 25.06.2010,
Wachstum erneut nach unten korrigiert
Die US-Wirtschaft hat im ersten Quartal des Jahres noch schwächer zugelegt als zunächst angenommen. Trotz guter Stimmung bei den Verbrauchern sind die Aussichten auch weiterhin düster.
Super Zahlen
Kommt jetzt das zweite Wirtschafts-Wunder?
Konsum zieht an +++ Wachstum noch schneller +++ Arbeitslosenzahl sinkt rapide
23.06.2010
Die Meldungen überschlagen sich. Ein Wirtschaftsinstitut meldet bessere Zahlen als das andere...Weniger Arbeitslose, mehr Konsum und das Wachstum macht seinem Namen alle Ehre. Deutschland ist Aufschwungland. Der Anfang eines zweiten Wirtschafts-Wunders? bild de., Juni 26,2010
German fin min says deflation not threat to Europe-press
MILAN, June 25 (Reuters) - Europe does not face a threat of deflation following austerity measures taken to cut deficits, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble said in an interview with Italy's Il Corriere della Sera on Friday. Germany's federal deficit this year would be 65 billion euros ($80 billion) and would be reduced by 11 billion euros next year, he said. "To speak about deflation in my opinion does not therefore make sense," he said. Because of its structure and demography, Germany had a potential long-term growth rate of 1.5 percent, Schauble said. cnbc com., June 26.2010
Deutlicher Aufschwung
Deutsche Wirtschaft strebt aus der Krise
manager-magazin de., 24.Juni 2010
23.06.2010
Ifo-Chef Sinn
"Solider Aufschwung bei Immobilien"
Bernanke: Economy Seems on Track
Bernanke offered cautious reassurance that the U.S. recovery is on track, despite
recent turmoil in financial markets and worries about the health of Europe's economy.
wsj com, June 8,2010
Schock für den Markt“ – Dax stürzt ab
Die Erwartungen an die Mai-Daten vom US-Arbeitsmarkt waren hoch - zu hoch, wie sich zeigte. Entsprechend heftig reagiert der Dax auf die enttäuschenden Daten. Lag der Leitindex am Morgen noch deutlich im Plus, ging es bis zum Handelsende rasant
in die Tiefe. Besonders hart traf es die Finanzwerte.handelsblatt.com, 5.Juni 2010
Erholungsrally - Dax über 6.000 Punkten
Nach kräftigem Rückenwind von der Wall Street und aus Asien legen die Aktienkurse in Deutschland am Donnerstag kräftig zu. Der Dax hat im Rahmen des auflebenden Optimismus die Marke von 6.000 Punkten deutlich überwunden. faz.net, 3.Juni 2010
Commodities’ Biggest Drop
Since Lehman Bear Signal bloomberg com, June 1,2010
Stocks suffered a dismal May, posting their worst decline for the month since Franklin Roosevelt was
in the White House. Blame it on the "Flash Crash" and angst over the worsening crisis in Europe.
A return to recession is unlikely in the euro zone and a drop in the value of the euro should help offset the toll that debt-shrinking austerity measures takes on economic growth, the OECD's chief economist said.
The declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below its lowest closing level since Feb. 12 is creating buying opportunities, said Laszlo Birinyi, the founder of Birinyi Associates Inc.
Daimler-Chef Zetsche plant für die Zukunft und will schnelle Erfolge.
Auf der Hauptversammlung erklärt er den Aktionären, was er vorhat.
Doch die bleiben misstrauisch. ftd de., April 15, 2010
focus, 14.4.2010
DAX, 60min.
(c) ELLIOTT today, 6/9/2010
Chart: quote.comThe German DAX has reached a critical point. The current wave structure and the psychological
environment fit the description of a wave two behavior. The Elliott Wave picture becomes more
bearish if one takes the alternate count into the prefered count. If five-waves down from 6115 to
5852 completed wave i down then the ensuing correction have to count as an expanded flat, which
in turn is more bearish and a 3rd wave down lies directly ahead.
focus, 9.Juni 2010
Dax sehr fest - Autotitel haussieren
Der Dax baut seine Gewinne aus und schließt nur knapp unter 6000 Zählern. Autotitel wie Daimler und BMW legen deutlich zu. An der Wall Street sorgen Chinas Exporte für Optimismus und steigende Kurse. manager-magazin de., 9.Juni 2010
DAX, daily
(c) ELLIOTT today, 5/28/2010
Chart: futuresource.comBörsianer werfen alle Sorgen über Bord
Handelsblatt.de, April 16,201027.04.2010
Dax-Chartanalyse
Ausbruch nach oben
Der deutsche Leitindex hat die Handelsspanne der vergangenen
Wochen nach oben verlassen, was ein positives charttechnisches
Signal darstellt. ftd de., April 27,2010
Elliott Wave Analysis
(c) ELLIOTT today, 5/28/2010The Elliott wave count for the German DAX is even more difficult,
as there are a number of possibilities left open. Still amazing, both
declines, Minor wave 1 and Minute wave (i) as labeled on the chart
spot the same percentage lengths, 10.8% and 10.65%, which fits the
description of a flat correction. The upmove from the last low looks
impulsive (a five-wave structure with a runaway-gap) implying there
is more to come to the upside after a correction takes place.The form of the correction likely will tell us more about what lies ahead
for the market. Optimism, especially with regard to the DAX runs high
and probably will continue though the market is set for a pronounced
decline later on. Interesting, by the way, the first recovery, wave 2
retraced 90% of the preceding decline and the second 55.75%, and
the ratio is 0.618.
DAX - 15min. chart
(c) ELLIOTT today, 5/18/2010
Chart: quote.com
The German DAX-XET trades below the ML and reached the 0.618
Fibonacci retracement level quite exactly. A short push up is likely,
but the structure is corrective in character and should led to another
sell-off.
DAX - 60min. chart
(c) ELLIOTT today, 5/14/2010
Chart: futuresource.com
The wave count from the top in the German DAX 60minute chart
seems a bit difficult, because at first glance it seems like a three-
wave decline. Minor waves 2 and 4 however alternate, since wave
4 is either a running flat or a double three. Both alternate with the
form of wave 2, which traced out a zigzag correction. The extremely
bullish bias toward rising stock prices finds it expression in the high
terminal ratios in Minor wave 2 at 6,200 and Primary wave [2] at 6,267.
Each time, the optimism was running high and each time the market
fell sharply down.At various times, wave b has pushed psychology to the outer limits
of the bullish range, but here's a sentiment measure showing that traders
entered an out-of-this world phase of optimism over the course of
the last several weeks.
Another sign on the wall (!) is Gordon Gekko at Cannes.
Gordon Gekko at Cannes
Hollywood and European producers have come to the Cannes Film Festival with a fund of films featuring the global financial crisis and Wall Street's "masters of the universe." Twentieth Century Fox will premiere Oliver Stone's "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps," the sequel to "Wall Street," his 1987 Oscar-winning drama on corporate greed, with Michael Douglas appearing again as the ruthless and amoral corporate raider, Gordon Gekko.wsj com., May 14, 2010The Timing couldn't be better.
DAX - Third Wave Down
(c) ELLIOTT today, 5/7/2010
Chart: futuresource.com
Rather than the DJIA, the run-up in the German DAX Index from 2002 to 2007 counts
as Intermediate wave (5) of Primary wave [5]. The subdivsions in Minor waves 1,2,3,4 and 5
are clearly visible."There is an old Arab Proverb which says that "When you go shopping for wisdom, visit every
tent in the bazaar." When Robert Prechter published his first book in 1978 predicting the
super bull market of the 1980s, only a very few people visited his tent. I hope more people
will visit his tent today, in order to understand the financial, economic and social implications
of At The Crest of the Tidal Wave." (Marc Faber, Faber Ltd., Hong Kong)That the beginning of a historic decline in stock prices is near is the single most
crucial fact facing every investor and portfolio manager today. Anyone still
invested and not selling into this market is ignoring the most crucial message from
the stock market pattern since 1929. As then, the stock market (in 2000) is streteched
far out of limb. You can rest assured that when the first wave of stock market losses hits,
it will once again catch the financial establishment off guard.The public has felt safe in throwing billions of dollars of its discretionary investment capital
and pension fund money at stock fund managers under the assumption that professionals
know what they are doing and will handle the money correctly. The managers have simply
put all that money into stocks, because in the narrow field of stock picking, they may know
that they are doing, but in the market analysis field, they do not. In the aggregate, professionals'
experience is exactly that of the stock market. Fund managers (like economists) are people
too, and in the aggregate, they become optimistic at market tops and pessimistic at bottoms.
When the over-the-edge bullish psychology took hold of the public in 1991, it also took hold
of professionals. One manifestation has been the flood of bullish books since that time,
including Benting the Street, Riding the bull, The Warren Buffet Way of Permanent Value,
The Common Sense Guide in Picking Stocks and Beating the New York Experts, Making
Your Living From the Stock Market, and a host of others.
Long time technicians remember the famous Barron's headline of January 1973, "Not a Bear
Among Them," which summed up institutional investor's opinion at the onset of the biggest
stock market drop in 36 years. Today, that situation is repeated. One indicator of professional
sentiment is the percentage of cash equivalents (such as short term money market paper) held
by pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies. Fund managers, whose job is often
to remain more or less fully invested, nevertheless adjust their cash positions to higher levels
if they feel that the market will fall and provide bargains. Because their decisions are based on
an assessment of extramarket conditions, just like most other people's, their cash holdings are
invariably highest at bottoms (just when funds should be fully invested in stocks) and lowest at
tops (just when they should be out of the market). The reading of approximately 17% cash in
1982 was extremely bullish. It was 7% in early 1987, when the Elliott Wave Theorist remarked,
"When the peak of this bull market really does arrive, stock market mutual funds will be nearly
fully invested. Until then, no major top is indicated."
Dax-Konzerne
Das wird die Woche der fetten Dividenden
Diese Woche spielen Aktien ihre Stärke aus: Gleich sieben Dax-Konzerne erfreuen ihre Besitzer
mit einem Geldsegen – in Form einer Dividende. Das zeigt einmal mehr, dass es eben nicht nur
auf den Aktienkurs ankommt.
Aber auch sonst ist das Umfeld für Aktien derzeit überaus freundlich. welt de., 4.Mai 2010
...da ist es wieder, das Keyword: Party....
Autoindustrie
Party bei Daimler
Noch nicht mal eine Woche ist es her, dass Daimler eine Ergebnisprognose für die PKW-Sparte Mercedes abgab.
Jetzt wird sie fast verdoppelt. Daimler jubelt, die Börse feiert.
sz de, April 20,2010
Marktbericht
Wirtschaftseuphorie sorgt für Kurseuphorie
FAZ.net, April 23,2010
In der deutschen Wirtschaft macht sich Frühlingslaune breit. Ein positiv interpretierter Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex sorgt zusammen mit der Erwartung auf Nachrichten über die mögliche Lösung der Griechenlandkrise zu Kursgewinnen an den Börsen.
...wenige Tage später
Hoher Gewinn
Investmentbanking der Deutschen Bank boomt
Josef Ackermanns Quartalsbilanz kann sich sehen lassen: Das Investmentbanking spielt eine Rekordsumme ein, die Eigen- kapitalrendite liegt deutlich über 25 Prozent. Der Ausblick ist jedoch alles andere als euphorisch, die Aktie sackt ab und zieht den Dax mit. ftd de., April 27,2010
Deutsche Bank ist Dax-Schlusslicht
Nach durchwachsenen Vorgaben fallen die europäischen Börsen in die Verlustzone. Die Deutsche Bank beherrscht mit guten Zahlen die Aufmerksamkeit der Investoren - und die Aktie knickt ein.ftd de., April 27,2010
Mehr Argumente für Aktien
28.04.10
xxxx ist Mitinhaber des Fondshauses Frankfurt Performance Management, das er im Oktober 2000 gemeinsam mit xxxx und weiteren Ex-Kollegen gründete. Zuvor war er als Experte für deutsche Aktien bei der Deutschen Bank tätig.
Criminal Probe Looks Into Goldman Trading
Federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation into whether Goldman Sachs or its employees committed securities fraud in connection with its mortgage trading, people familiar with the probe say. wsj.com, April 30,2010
US-Immobilienmarkt
Buffett rechnet mit schneller Erholung
Die Worte des Starinvestors haben Gewicht: Die amerikanische Wirtschaft befindet sich nach Einschätzung von Warren Buffett klar auf de, Weg der Besserung. Besonders der US-Immobilienmarkt
werde sich schnell und nachhaltig erholen. ftd de., May 3, 2010
Blue chips down 220
Nasdaq plummets nearly 3%;
'fear gauge' surges 27% U.S. stocks plunge on renewed worries over euro-zone debt loads. Tech stocks lead the market selloff'Fear gauge' VIX rockets European shares tumble as Greece contagion worries return Euro at 1-year low | Treasurys rise | Greece taps Lazard advice Spanish and Portuguese CDS spreads soar on debt fears msn com., May 4, 2010
What Does NOT Move Markets? Examining 8 Claims of Market Efficiency
March 2, 2010By Susan Walker
If everyone says that shocks from outside the financial system -- so-called exogenous shocks -- can affect it for better
or worse, they must be right.It just sounds so darned logical, right? Economists believe this trope to be true, mainly because they believe that investors are rational thinkers who re-evaluate their positions after every new bit of relevant information turns up.
Beginning to sound slightly impossible? Well, yes.
It turns out that logic is exactly what's missing from this it-feels-so-right idea of rational reaction to exogenous shocks. Read an excerpt from Robert Prechter's February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist to see how Prechter deals with this widely held belief.
Find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook. The Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events.
Learn more, and download your free ebook here.
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DAX
(c) ELLIOTT today, 04/24/2010
Chart: futuresource.com
The September 1992 Elliott Wave Theorist described the correlation between political associations and the stock market:
At a peak (in stocks) , it's all "We"; everyone is a potential friend. At a bottom
it's all "They"; everyone is a potential enemy. When times are good, tolerance
is greater and boundaries weaker. When times are bad, intolerance for
differences grows, and people build walls and fences to shut out those
perceived to be different. Ultimately, persecution and war result.
Elliott Wave Theorist September 1992
The ebb and flow of the EU's fortune have unmistakably exhibited the "We" versus "They" sentiment of the market's main trend. Without exception, waves of rising optimism have produced expressions of unity, and market lows have displayed conspicuous Euro-skeptism and setbakcs. The unification movement's dependence on trends toward positive social mood extends to its earliest days
as well.
Postiive social mood trends dominated the continent's early years following World War II, and European Unity strengthened as the stock market rose. The treaties of Paris and Rome for example created two economic communities that became the basis for later EU legislation. Member countries signed both agreements in the 1950s as the post-WWII stock rally accelerated. More cooperation occurred during the 1960s bull market. the 1965 Merger Treaty was important socionomically because it combined Europe's three economic communities into one institutional structure. Then, in the 1970s, as the trend of social mood reversed, the trend toward European integration came to a standstill. Mainstream economists use standard causality - the notion that events govern mood - to explain the setback. Former Director General of the European Central Bank Hanspeter Scheller said, "Integration...lost momentum under the pressure of divergent policy responses to the economic shocks of the period."Socionomically speaking, Scheller has it exactly backwards. Divergent policy responses (an event) did not cause European integration to lose momentum. Rather, a lack of desire to integrate (the mood imperative) caused policy responses to diverge. Elliott wave patterns show that the 1970s were a Supercycle-degree correction. In other words, Europe lost its yearn to unite for a much simpler reason than Scheller posits: Social mood turned down in a big way.
It took a big new bull market in mood to rekindle the desire for a true political and monetary union. The momentum built slowly in the early 1980s, then picked up steam late in the decade. In 1987 the Delors commission enacted the Single European Act (SEA), which was the first major revision to the 1958 Treaty of Rome. The SEA expressed Europe's shared aims and set the objectives for a common European market. Member countries signed the Act near the end of the massive advance in stock levels that began earlier in the decade. That is to say, the SEA arrived precisely on time: at a major peak in social mood.Less than three month later, the 1987 crash erased more than one-third of the Eurostoxx's value.
The Supercycle degree top that formed n the late 1990s provided the decisive push toward the European Union that exists today. Bellwethers France and Germany reached accord on a Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1997. Soon afterward, member countries established the European Central Bank(ECB). The ECB launched the euro in November 1998. In 1999 the Treaty of Amsterdam took effect and increased the powers of the European parliament. March 2000 marked an all time high in the Eurostoxx Index. Some nine month later came the Nice summit, which former French President Jacques Chirac extolled as a meeting that "will go down in history." He could have been speaking about the union itself: The Treaty of Nice marked the climax of European optimism, as it thew open the doors to the EU's eastern-bloc expansion and, ultimately, set up the continent's coming separation.
The Divina Proportion (H.E.Huntley, Dover Publications, 1970)
I hope the following text may encourage the reader who takes mathematics seriously to cultivate a philosophical attitude to the subject; and not only about beauty in mathematics but also beauty in a wider context, to ask such questions as: What is beauty? What is the status of the aesthetic faculty? Has it a practical value? Whence is it? Has it served a purpose in human evolution? What are its long-term prospects?
It is difficult to confine beauty to either objective or subjective categories. It seems to be more satisfactory to regard it as an interaction between mind and an object or an idea which arouses emotion. It would follow that the discovery of beauty either in the world of nature or in mathematics is indicative of some feature in the structure of the mind. For example, the impossibility of conceiving a finite universe, or a straight line that, however long, cannot be produced, points ineluctably to a constituent element in the mental fabric as much as to a feature of the universe. Again, the non-existance of an ultimate particle - one that cannot be subdivided - is not so much a fact of atomic physics as an inexorable mental necessity. The difficulty of conceiving an undifferentiated continuum or of imaging "action as a distance" are other examples of mental limitations.
These considerations provide a clue to indicate in which general direction we might look to find an explanation of the source of aestetic pleasure. We should seek to discover what we can about the anatomy of the human psyche, which has been slowly evolved in parallel with the development of man's physical frame over a period of hundreds of thousand years. One might accordingly anticipate that mental elements of great antiquity might be relevant to those types of beauty of which the appreciation is common to the whole of the human race, e.g. color contrast, rhythm, form, and others of the kind.
Carl G. Jung speculated as follows in his book , Man and his Symbols:
Just as the human body represents a whole museum of organs, each with a long evolutionary history behind it, so we should expect to find that the mind is organized in a similar way. It can no more be a product without history than is the body in which is exists...
I am referring to the biological, prehistoric, and unconscious development of the mind in archaic man, whose psyche was still close to that of the animal. This immense old psyche forms the basis of our mind, just as much as the structure
of the body is based on the general anatomical pattern of the mammal. The trained eye of the anatomist finds many traces of the original pattern in our bodies. The experienced investigator of mind can similarly see the analogies between the dream pictures of modern man and the products of the primitive mind, its "collective images" and its mythological motifs.
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DAX & News & Median Lines
(c) ELLIOTT today, 04/30/2010
Mid-Line 'Catched' the Top
Chart: futuresource.com
Trotz Plus von fast 50 Prozent
Barclays enttäuscht mit Milliardengewinn
Kräftige Ergebnissteigerungen reichen Investoren und Analysten nicht -
sie machen sich Sorgen um das Wachstumspotenzial der Bank. Die Aktie fällt.
spiegel online de., April 30,2010
Procter & Gamble Profit Tops View,
but Shares Fall
cnbc com., Thursday, 29 Apr 2010
Deutsche Bank lässt Aktionäre kalt
Die Vorgaben von Übersee waren nicht vielversprechend. Dann begeisterte
die Deutsche Bank mit einem Milliardengewinn - und an der Börse stehen
die Kurse dennoch unter Druck. Selbst das Papier des deutschen Banken-
primus verzeichnet nur geringe Gewinne. manager-magazin.de, April 27,2010
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Helle Panik um Hellas
Während die Politik noch berät, was in Griechenland zu tun sei, nehmen die Finanzmärkte das Chaos vorweg. Die Kreditwürdigkeit Griechenlands wurde auf "Ramsch" heruntergestuft, die Anleihenkurse und Aktien brechen ein. Statt dessen kaufen die Anleger wie von Sinnen deutsche Anleihen.sueddeutsche.de. April 27,2010
Portugal-Schreck am Abend
Dax bricht ein
Die Angst vor der Ausbreitung der griechischen Finanzkrise auf weitere Euro-Staaten drückt den Dax zum Handelsschluss tief ins Minus. Kurz zuvor hat die Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's die Bewertung der Kreditwürdigkeit von Portugal und Griechenland herabgestuft. n-tv.de, April 27,2010
Chart: futuresource.com
Dax & Stoxx am Vormittag
Ifo-Index macht Griechenland-Sorgen vergessen
Die europäischen Börsen machen einen großen Teil der Vortagesverluste wett. Unterstützung erhält der Dax von einem starken Ifo-Index. ftd.de., April 23,2010Stocks, Euro Gain as Greece Asks for Bailout; Greek Bonds Rise
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe rose and the euro strengthened from a one-year low against the dollar after Greece said it will ask the European Union for a rescue package and German business confidence and earnings at companies including Volvo AB beat forecasts. Greek stocks and bonds rallied.
Wirtschaft kompakt
Wirtschaft im Frühlingsrausch
Strahlende Aussichten:Das Geschäftsklima ist so gut wie seit zwei Jahren nicht mehr. Außerdem: Bei Amazon boomt das Geschäft. sueddeutsche de., April 23,2010
DAX & News & Median Lines
(c) ELLIOTT today, 04/23/2010
Chart: futuresource.com
Political Backlash in Europe Over Goldman
Politicians in the U.K. and Germany are starting to call on their governments to cut ties with Goldman, which has long been one of the top financial advisers to European policy makers.
WSJ, April 21, 2010
Aktien-Aufschwung:
Börsianer werfen alle Sorgen über Bord
Sorgen um die Finanzprobleme Griechenlands und anderer Euro-Staaten, möglicherweise eine neue Krise am überhitzten Markt für Gewerbeimmobilien oder ein spürbar anziehender Ölpreis: Belastungen, die die internationalen Aktienmärkte drücken könnten, gibt es viele. Doch unbeeindruckt
davon erreichen die Börsen
Vorwürfe der US-Börsenaufsicht
Goldman Sachs unter Betrugsverdacht
16.04.2010,
Ärger mit der Börsenaufsicht: Die SEC wirft der Großbank Goldman Sachs Betrug vor - die Aktie stürzt ab.
DAX & News & Median Lines
(c) ELLIOTT today, 04/20/2010
Chart: futuresource.com
Here's a parallel that could help you understand this counterintuitive concept: fame. An actor, politician or a singer becomes famous. They shine brightly for a while, but then suddenly fall out of favor with the crowd and drop off the radar screen. Did their talent change? In most cases, the answer is "no." Then what happened? The mood of the crowd changed. First, the crowd elevated the person because their persona "spoke" to them, but now their mood has shifted away from the message the persona
delivered.
The actual person who became the superstar can probably still sing well, or give a good stump speech. But the shift in our collective perception has made their persona irrelevant. In his "Prechter's Perspective," in one of the interviews, Prechter says:
"It's not the person that matters to the crowd. It's the persona. The public can place them in star status, and it can remove the sanction. It is the same essential change in the collective mindset that marks the onset of a turn in the stock market."
In other words, the same mood shifts change trends in the financial markets.
When I first read the above quote, it instantly gave me a clearer understanding of how changing social mood can bring rapid changes in market direction. I only had to think about how quickly once popular TV shows can lose appeal among viewers, or how a fitness craze is suddenly no longer popular -- or how a market can reverse when nothing seems to spell trouble. Remember the good humor of "Friends" and "Seinfeld" in the late 1990s, replaced by "Survivor" and other bickering reality TV shows after stocks topped in 2000? Remember how the DJIA topped in October 2007, when most economists and CEOs saw nothing but blue skies ahead? Remember how just four months ago, in November 2009, the U.S. dollar was "doomed" -- right before it reversed and astonished dollar bears? The list of examples could continue, but I'm sure you get the idea.
The main idea of Prechter's socionomics is that the unconsciously shared social mood is the cause. Events -- like the market rising or falling, superstars gaining or losing popularity, etc. -- are results.So the real question is: How do you measure social mood? The Wave Principle offers you a direct measure. It explains that shifts in collective psychology -- be they in the markets or popular culture -- occur in predictable patterns, Elliott wave patterns. Once you know where you are within a pattern, you can estimate with a good probability what should come next.
That's why you can use the Wave Principle to forecast not only the financial markets, but future fashion trends, types of songs which are likely to become popular, what kinds of movies are likely to win at the box office, the chances of political incumbents for being re-elected, political strife between nations -- and much, much more.
DAX -Form NOT the News -Classic Elliott
DAX, 03/14/2007
Chart: futuresource.com
What Does NOT Move Markets? Examining 8 Claims of Market Efficiency
March 2, 2010By Susan Walker
If everyone says that shocks from outside the financial system -- so-called exogenous shocks -- can affect it for better
or worse, they must be right.It just sounds so darned logical, right? Economists believe this trope to be true, mainly because they believe that investors are rational thinkers who re-evaluate their positions after every new bit of relevant information turns up.
Beginning to sound slightly impossible? Well, yes.
It turns out that logic is exactly what's missing from this it-feels-so-right idea of rational reaction to exogenous shocks. Read an excerpt from Robert Prechter's February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist to see how Prechter deals with this widely held belief.
Find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook. The Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Learn more, and download your free ebook here.
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Excerpted from Prechter's February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist, published Feb. 19, 2010
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) argues that as new information enters the marketplace, investors revalue stocks accordingly. … In such a world, the market would fluctuate narrowly around equilibrium as minor bits of news about individual companies mostly canceled each other out. Then important events, which would affect the valuation of the market as a whole, would serve as “shocks” causing investors to adjust prices to a new level, reflecting that new information. One would see these reactions in real time, and investigators of market history would face no difficulties in identifying precisely what new information caused the change in prices. …
This is a simple idea and simple to test. But almost no one ever bothers to test it. According to the mindset of conventional economists, no one needs to test it; it just feels right; it must be right. It’s the only model anyone can think of. But socionomists [those who use the Wave Principle to make social predictions] have tested this idea multiple ways. And the result is not pretty
for the theories that rely upon it.
The tests that we will examine are not rigorous or statistical. Our time and resources are limited. But in refuting a theory, extreme rigor is unnecessary. If someone says, “All leaves are green,” all one need do is show him a red one to refute the claim. I hope when we are done with our brief survey, you will see that the ubiquitous claim we challenge is more akin to economists saying “All leaves are made of iron.” We will be unable to find a single example from nature that fits.* * *
In his February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist, Prechter then goes on to show charts that examine each of these claims
that encompass both economic and political events:Claim #1: “Interest rates drive stock prices.”
Claim #2: “Rising oil prices are bearish for stocks.”
Claim #3: “An expanding trade deficit is bad for a nation’s economy and therefore bearish for stock prices.”
Claim #4: “Earnings drive stock prices.”
Claim #5: “GDP drives stock prices.”
Claim #6: “Wars are bullish/bearish for stock prices.”
Claim #7: “Peace is bullish for stocks.”
Claim #8: “Terrorist attacks would cause the stock market to drop.”To protect your personal finances, it's important to think independently from the crowd, particularly when the crowd
buys into what economists say.Find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook. The Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" newsevents. Learn more, and download your free ebook here.
For more on Fibonacci please visit
March Socionomist:
Golden Ratio: A Guiding Constant of the Universesocionomics.net/pdf/Fibo_Statistics.pdf
More Fibonacci:
http://harmonictrader.com/fibonacci.htmwww.environmentalgraffiti.com/