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Category: Elections

 

Socionomics:

Electoral Consequences of Social Mood Trends

The social psychology that accompanies a bull or bear market is the main determinant not only of how voters select a president but also of how they perceive his performance. Correlation with the stock market, consumer confidence, economic performance and other measures suggests that social mood is by far the main determinant of presidential popularity.

 

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Has the Top Been Seen`?

Merkel verliert in der Wählergunst

Die SPD ist laut einer Umfrage ihrem Jahrestief entkommen - liegt aber immer noch bei mageren 27 Prozent. Schlechte Nachrichten bringt die Erhebung für Kanzlerin Merkel: Sie büßt weiter an Vertrauen bei den Wählern ein. FTD, Dec 5,2007

 

Merkel warnt vor Zerfall der EU

Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) hat die Pläne von Frankreichs Staatspräsident Nikolas Sarkozy
für eine Mittelmeer-Union als Bedrohung für die EU kritisiert. In der Weiterentwicklung könne eine solcheZusammenarbeit dazu führen, «dass die EU in ihrem Kernbereich zerfällt», sagte Merkel. 
FTD, Dec 5,2007

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50 JAHRE EU -  Gemeinschaft in der Midlife-Crisis
(Der Spiegel, 24.3.2007)

A hard swing down is clear in everything from the biggest backward move in the 55-year history of the European Union, a "no" vote against an EU constitution by France and the Netherlands, to a sudden nose dive in President Bush's popularity and almost daily signs of growing
trade tensions." EWI, July 1, 2005

Most people believe that stock market movement is caused by fundamental economic and political conditions and events. Experienced stock market watchers have recognized that such events "cast their shadow before," on the stock exchange. However, the assumption even among veteran market students is that the stock market foreshadows events because "smart money" is correctly guessing future events. 

Popular art, fashion and mores are a reflection of the dominant public mood. Because the stock market changes direction in step with these expressions of mood, it is another coincident register of the dominant public mood and changes in it. Because a substantial change in mood in a positive or negative direction foreshadows the character of what are generally considered to be historically important events, mood changes  must be considered as possible, if not probably, being the basic cause of ensuing events.

Both a study of the stock market and a study of trends in popular attitudes support the conclusion that the movement of aggregate stock prices is a direct recording of mood and mood change within the investment community, and by extension, within the society at large. It is clear that extremes in popular cultural trends coincide with extremes in stock prices, since they peak and trough coincidentally in their reflection of the popular mood. The stock market is the best place to study mood change because it is the only field of mass behavior where specific, detailed and voluminous numerical data exists.

It was only with such data that R.N. Elliott was able to discover the Wave Principle, which reveals that mass mood changes are natural, rhythmic and precise. The stock market is literally a drawing of how the scales of mass mood are tipping. A decline indicates an increasing "negative" mood on balance, and an advance indicates an increasing "positive" mood on balance. 

 

Annan warnt vor geteilter Welt (Spiegel online, 20.Sept.2006)

Staatsstreich in Thailand (Die Zeit, 20.9.2006)

Schwerste Ausschreitungen seit 50 Jahren (Die Welt online, 20.9.2006)

Schwere Straßenschlacht in Budapest, (Spiegel online, 20.Sept.2006)

Hedge-Fonds hat angeblich fünf Milliarden Dollar verwettet, Handelsblatt, 19.9.2006 

Vorwürfe gegen China: Handelsstreit um Autoteile eskaliert

Die EU, die USA und Kanada bringen erstmals einen Handelsstreit
mit China vor die Welthandelsorganisation. Spiegel online, 16.Sept.2006

DaimlerChrysler
Gewinneinbruch schockt die Märkte. Die Welt, 16.9.2006

Thailand will Dauer-Touristen hinauswerfen
Schluss mit Party unter Palmen: Das Urlaubsparadies verschärft seine Einreisegesetze. Betroffen sind auch rund 40.000 Deutsche. 
Die kochen vor Wut. Die Welt 16.9.2006

Merkel rutscht auf Rekordtief ab
Spiegel online, 8.September 2006

Tiefpunkt für die Regierung Merkel
Die Welt online, 8.September 2006

EU einigt sich auf Strafzölle gegen Billigschuhe aus China 
Die Welt online, 4.Oktober 2006

 

"There is no mistaking the footprints of a big bear market. 
One of the most prominent changes is the shift away from the permissiveness and feelings of alignment with others to a sudden public fetish for restriction and control." 
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, May 2004

 

Socionomics:

(1) Concord/Discord: A rising mood leads to a substantial consensus in politics, culture and social vision; a falling mood leads to a divided, radical climate. After the social mood has risen for a number of years, the society tends to be peaceful; after it has fallen for a number of years, it tends to become involved in wars.  

(2) Inclusion/Exclusion: A rising mood leads to feelings of social brotherhood and acceptance among races, religions and political territories, as well a toward animals, plants, and proposed aliens. A falling mood leads to apartheid, religious animosity, cavalier cruelty, secession, independence movements and images of aliens as monsters.  

(3) Forbearance/Anger: A rising mood leads to social expressions of acquiescence, apology, tolerance. A falling mood leads to social expressions of resistance, recrimination and intolerance. 

(4) Confidence/Fear: A rising mood leads to speculation in the stock market and in business. A falling mood causes risk aversion in the stock market and business.  

(5) Embrace of effort/Avoidance of effort: In a rising mood trend, people are disposed to expending effort, both mental, which elevates the use of reason, and physical, which elevates the ideal of fitness. In a falling mood trend, they are disposed to avoiding effort, which leads to magical thinking and physical laziness.

(6) Practical thinking/Magical thinking: Practical thinking manifests itself in philosophic defenses of reason, self-providence, individualism, peacemaking and a reverence for science. Magical thinking manifests itself in philosophic attacks on reason, self-abnegation, collectivism, witch hunts, war-making and a reverence for religion.  

(7) Constructiveness/Destructiveness: The impulse to build shows up in the construction of record-breaking skyscraper buildings at social-mood peaks. At troughs, new buildings are built, and many of those already in place may be burned or bombed out of existence.  

(8) Desiring power over nature/Desiring power over people: Desiring power over nature leads to a naturalistic mindset, political freedom and peaceful technological advances. Desiring power over people leads to a socialistic mindset, political repression and technological advances in warring.

 

 

Dow Jones ECU Stoxx 50

 

Chart: futuresource.com

To give you an idea of the far-reaching effects of a single polar continuum, let us examine just one of them: 
inclusion vs. exclusion. A waxing positive social mood accompanies increased inclusionary tendencies
in every aspect of society, including the cultural, moral, religious, racial, economic, national, regional, social,
financial and political. A waxing negative social mood accompanies increased exclusionary tendencies
in every aspect of society. With that realization, you can predict increasing cooperation and acts of 
brotherhood in all those areas in bull markets and the opposite in bear markets. 

For example, in bull markets, most people like similar styles of music, in bear markets, the dominant types
are often very different. In bull markets, politics tends to be middle-of-road, in bear markets, radical positions
gain acceptance, and the electorate becomes polarized. Free trade is encouraged in bull markets; protectionism
is demanded in bear markets. Racial harmony is promoted in bull markets, racial separation in bear markets. 

 

 

 

 

60 Prozent der Bayern wollen Stoiber nicht mehr

Edmund Stoiber rutscht ab: 60 Prozent der Bayern wollen ihn nach einer Umfrage des "Stern" nicht mehr als CSU-Spitzenkandidaten 2008.

Es ist ein Auf und Ab für Stoiber. Schon vor drei Tagen verursachte eine andere Forsa-Umfrage reichlich Unruhe. Die Meinungsforscher hatten bundesweit gefragt, ob die CSU möglicherweise ohne Stoiber ein besseres Ergebnis erzielen könne. 62 Prozent der Befragten stimmten dem zu, nur 26 Prozent waren der Ansicht, dass die CSU mit Stoiber als Spitzenkandidat 2008 besser abschneiden könne. 
Spiegel online, 3.jan.2007

 

 

 

Bush urplötzlich im Umfragehoch

Rund sieben Wochen vor den Kongresswahlen kann sich George W. Bush über steigende
Umfragewerte freuen. Allein in diesem Monat konnte der US-Präsident fünf Prozentpunkte
gut machen. Die Welt online, 19.Sept.2006

GESUNDHEITSREFORM
Krisengipfel im Kanzleramt
Der Streit um die Gesundheitsreform wird zum Belastungstest für die Große Koalition - und immer
mehr auch für die Kanzlerin. Der Spiegel online, 22.Sept.2006

 

The president is not the one who is in control of his social efficacy.
The Elliott Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior

 

Chart: stockcharts.com

 

Merkel rutscht auf Rekordtief ab
So unbeliebt war Angela Merkel seit ihrem Amtsantritt noch nie. Bei einer Umfrage fiel die
Kanzlerin auf ein Rekordtief zurück. Die Arbeit von Außenminister Frank-Walter Steinmeier
wurde dagegen am besten bewertet. 

Hamburg - Merkel verlor beim ARD-"Deutschlandtrend" von Infratest dimap im Vergleich zum
August zwei Punkte und rutschte mit nun 54 Prozent in der Rangfolge der beliebtesten Politiker
auf Platz 3 ab. Es war der schlechteste Wert für die Kanzlerin seit dem Amtsantritt.
(Spiegel online, 8.September 2006)


Tiefpunkt für die Regierung Merkel

Die Bundeskanzlerin und ihre Partei sacken in der Wählergunst weiter ab. Die Union erreicht 
mit 34 Prozent ihren schlechtesten Wert seit Juli 2001. Kleiner Trost: Das Ansehen der SPD 
ist noch schlechter. Die Welt online, 8.September 2006

 

Merkels Ansehen sinkt dramatisch

Angela Merkel und die Unions-Parteien haben in der Wählergunst weiter deutlich eingebüßt.
CDU/CSU kommen auf den schlechtesten Wert seit fünf Jahren. Focus online, 8.Sept.2006

 

Rangliste
Merkel ist die mächtigste Frau der Welt
Die Welt, 1.September 2006
Die Umfragewerte in Deutschland sinken und die Popularität der Regierungschefin hat hierzulande
seit der Bundestagswahl ein Rekordtief erreicht. In den Vereinigten Staaten wird der Einfluss der
Kanzlerin allerdings ganz anders bewertet.

 

 

Gute Noten für Schwarz-Rot
(Der Spiegel 4/2006, 23.Januar 2006)

Sie hat in Washington und in Moskau eine gute Figur gemacht, den EU-Haushalt gerettet und sich
mit den Roten zum Regieren zusammengerauft: Wie zur Belohnung darf Angela Merkel nun auf
einer Welle der Zustimmung surfen. 85 Prozent der von TNS Infratest für den Spiegel Befragten
wollen, dass die erste deutsche Kanzlerin auch künftig "eine wichtige Rolle" in der Politik spielt.

Damit übertrifft Merkel nicht nur ihre Vorgänger Gerhard Schröder und Helmut Kohl, die sich
zu keiner Zeit einer solchen Beliebtheit erfreuten, sondern sie erzielt auch den zweitbesten 
Wert eines Politikers in den vergangenen 20 Jahren. 

 

Electoral Consequences of Social Mood Trends

The social psychology that accompanies a bull or bear market is the main determinant not only of how voters select a president but also of how they perceive his performance. Correlation with the stock market, consumer confidence, economic performance and other measures suggests that social mood is by far the main determinant of presidential popularity.

What a leader does is mostly acausal with respect to the public’s opinion of him. There are two reasons for this fact. First, his actions, despite their endless analysis in the press, do little to affect his popularity. Second, his popularity is dependent upon a social mood and economy over which he can exercise no countertrend influence. If you are new to these ideas, they may be hard to swallow. Aren’t some presidents fools or rogues and others statesmen? Don’t some presidents affect the economy for good or ill? As to the first question, the answer is, certainly there are presidents of high or low character and ability. However, that does not affect their popularity. For example, President John Kennedy blew the only military conflict in which he engaged the country, attacked the steel industry out of pique to no result, and continually committed adultery. He is revered. Why? Because the country was in a state of euphoria for all but a few months of his term, euphoria that morphed three months later into Beatlemania. As to the second question, the answer is, certainly presidential actions affect the economy. However, the president is not the one who is in control of his social efficacy. For example, the laissez-faire and low-tax policies of President Ronald Reagan helped spur the economy in the early 1980s, but they did not help spur the economy in those ways in 1979 because he was not elected in 1976. Social mood called the shots on when it was time for a change. When most of the population wanted lesser taxes and regulation, they got it. 

 

First we will examine the electoral fortunes of some U.S. political figureheads both at extremes in social mood trends as well as in more moderate times. As we shall see, social mood determines their perceived efficacy, legacy and fate.

Near lows of major bear markets, incumbent presidents have suffered their greatest defeats. Apparently, the populace blames the rapid mood change toward the negative and its associated events (such as economic contraction) on the incumbent, so voters overwhelmingly reject him and the party he represents. 

For example, Martin Van Buren was ousted by a landslide in 1840 near the low of wave a of (II); Herbert Hoover was ousted by a landslide in 1932 at the low of wave (IV), Jimmy Carter was ousted by a landslide in 1980 near the low of wave 2 in nominal terms and a major low in constant-dollar terms. An interesting victim of dramatic market change to the downside was Richard Nixon. He was elected by a landslide in 1972, two months before the price peak of wave IV in nominal terms, then had to resign his office amidst a barrage of social hatred two months before the price low of wave IV less than two years later. 

The extent of the political reversal is related to the degree of the bear market. The most dramatic defeats of incumbent U.S. presidents have occurred near lows within Supercycle degree bear markets. Lesser ones have occurred near lows within Cycle degree bear markets. 

The larger the degree of the market reversal, the longer the party newly elected at its end holds power afterward, since that party is credited with causing the turnaround. After the Supercycle wave (II) low of 1859 when a Democrat had been in office, Republicans won six elections in a row. After the equivalent Supercycle wave (IV) low of 1932 when a Republican had been in office, Democrats won five elections in a row. The one-degree-smaller Cycle low of 1828 gave Democrats a comparatively lesser three elections in a row, just as the similar lows of 1896, 1920 and 1980 each gave Republicans three elections in a row. The key determinant is not the politics of the party, but which one is blamed for the preceding downward social mood trend.

The second election in a new bull market produces a landslide in favor of the party, and typically the candidate, already in power. In 1832, a landslide retained Andrew Jackson in office. In 1864, a landslide retained Abraham Lincoln in office. In 1924, a landslide retained Calvin Coolidge in office. In 1936, a landslide retained Franklin Roosevelt in office. In 1956, an electoral landslide retained Dwight Eisenhower in office. In 1984, a landslide retained Ronald Reagan in office. Every one of these was a retention in a new bull market.

In each developing fifth wave of Cycle degree, that candidate’s party also won a third election. In 1836, within one year of the peak of wave V of (I), Martin Van Buren was elected by a substantial margin (though smaller than his predecessor, since the peak had occurred a year earlier), securing a third consecutive term for the Democratic party. In 1928, within one year of the peak of wave V of (III), Calvin Coolidge wisely declined to run (he would have won the election but lost the respect of history), and Herbert Hoover was elected by a substantial margin (a landslide, since the uptrend was still in force), securing a third consecutive term for the Republican party. In 1988, in wave V of (V), George Bush was elected by a substantial margin (though smaller than his predecessor, since a temporary peak had occurred a year earlier), securing a third term in a row for the Republican party. These examples show that fifth waves of Cycle degree to date have guaranteed two additional elections to the recently elected party, usually by large margins. Fifth waves of Primary degree appear to guarantee one additional election. Presidents are also retained by landslides in elections that take place near major stock market tops. Grant won a landslide in 1872. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson, who had presided since Kennedy’s death, won in a landslide. In 1972, Nixon won reelection in a landslide. The implication is clear: In the first case, nervous voters want society to “stay the course” in its new-found good fortune. In the second case, they want to maintain the euphoria that they feel at a social mood peak. In both cases, they think that reelecting a president or maintaining a political party will have the desired effect. The cause-and-effect relationship, however, is in the opposite direction.

Nuances

Once again, I will explore nuance briefly, just to communicate how closely history repeats at similar times in the wave structure. As one example, Cycle degree fifth waves have produced a remarkably similar sequence of elections and background conditions in the past two hundred years. Wave V of (I) occurred from 1828 to 1835. Republican Andrew Jackson was elected by a large margin (178 to 83 electoral votes), was retained in office by a landslide victory (219 to 49), enjoyed an endearing nickname, “Old Hickory,” and presided during a debt-fueled speculative boom in stocks and land. He was succeeded by a member of the same party. Wave V of (III) occurred from 1921 to 1929. Republican Warren Harding was elected by a large margin (404 to 127); Calvin Coolidge took over when Harding died in office, was retained in office by a landslide victory (382 to 136 and a margin of 1.9:1 in popular vote, the largest ever), enjoyed an endearing nickname, “Silent Cal,” and presided during a debt-fueled speculative boom in stocks and land. He was succeeded by a member of the same party. The liftoff portion of wave V of (V) occurred from 1982 to 1987. Republican Ronald Reagan was elected by a large margin (489 to 49), was retained in office by a landslide victory (525 to 13), enjoyed an endearing nickname, “The Great Communicator,” and presided during a debt-fueled speculative boom in stocks and land. He was succeeded by a member of the same party. 1988 was the first time that a sitting Vice President was elected since 1836 and the first time that the Republicans had won three in a row since 1928, each of those being near the previous fifth wave peaks of Cycle degree. 

If an uptrend in social mood persists for a long time, it eventually becomes taken for granted. Then voters’ patterns change because they no longer assume that they must keep a particular person or party in power to maintain what they now regard as normal conditions. However, they change exactly in a way that reflects their increasing ebullience and confidence as the positive mood reaches extremes. A typical result is the election of politicians more willing to express social feelings of abundance by supporting or initiating social programs. For instance, after electing the conservative Eisenhower twice during the initial phase of a long bull market, the public voted in a moderate Kennedy and then a liberal Johnson near the top. Similarly in the 1980s, after electing the conservative Reagan twice during the initial phase of the bull market, the public voted in a moderate Bush and then a liberal Clinton.

Given that Cycle wave V of (V) is ending a much larger Grand Supercycle, a second president, Bill Clinton, has enjoyed the benefits of an extension of wave V’s debt-fueled uptrend in stocks and land. As befits the relative weakness of a fifth wave of a fifth wave, the quality of the luster is off substantially. He did not win his second term in a landslide, and his nickname is a far less endearing “Slick Willie.” (To see my comments and forecast regarding President Clinton’s fortunes, see Chapter 17.) 

There may be a connection between fifth waves of Supercycle degree as well. 1998 has marked the first year since 1928, near the end of wave V of (III), that each of three consecutive elections has produced Republican domination of both houses of Congress. 

 

 

 

Elliott Wave International:

Germany's Upswing: Are Politicians To Thank? 
1/13/2006 

After a miserable first half of this decade, when "Germany's manufacturers, its service and retail sector were on the down," things are finally looking up for the German economy (Deutsche Welle). Although it did slow down in 2005 vs. 2004, investor, business and consumer optimism are much more upbeat now than a year ago. For example, the ZEW investor sentiment index - a key economic measure - jumped for the second month in a row in January, and now stands at the highest level in two years.

You can understand why German investors and companies are so optimistic: The DAX stock index added almost 30% in 2005, unemployment is down, and exports are booming. And while the "situation in the labor market and the weak domestic demand remained problematic," the progress is very encouraging, and so are the expectations going forward (BBC).

Scrambling for a rational explanation of this upswing, "the media is beginning to link signs of an economic recovery in Germany to the dawn of a new era under the rule of Chancellor Merkel" (DW). A "powerful woman," she is seen as "a power broker, an honest negotiator and political leader,"who will soon be taken even "more seriously Gerhard Schröder had ever been." And, say the analysts, it's up to Angela Merkel and Germany's new coalition government to keep the economic momentum going.

You'll probably be surprised to hear this, but from an Elliott wave standpoint, German politicians have had a lot less to do with the recovery than the media gives them credit for. And it's not up to them where the German economy goes from here, either. Why? Because politicians can never fix what's wrong with the economy without a lot of help from social mood.

Social mood, or people's mass emotional state, is the real driving force of any society. It changes from negative to positive and back again, and the trends in the country's stock market, economy and culture change with it.

In our research, we've shown that the best barometer of social mood is the stock market. Look at Germany's DAX index, and it's clear that back in 2000-2003, when stocks lost most of their value, Germany's social mood suffered a major setback. What followed was an "economic malaise" that gripped the country for several years. Ironically, in early 2003, in the middle of the recession, German stocks began to recover, indicating an upturn in social mood back to positive. Slowly but surely, the economy began to turn around, too. But it's a slow boat, which is why we're only now starting to see true signs of economic recovery.

How big was the role of German politicians in the recovery process? Smaller than they would like to claim. Those who know how to apply Elliott wave analysis to social trends understand that economic ups and downs are a result of changes in a country's social mood, not political decisions. Politicians don't turn the tide of a bull or bear market by enacting or abandoning policies. At some critical point, social mood forces politicians to act, and if their actions resonate with people's mass emotions, people cheer the new policies. Which is probably what's happening in Germany right now, hence the media's efforts to link the recovery to politics.

But it's not politicians who "saved" Germany's bear market and the economy. Politicians can never do that because they cannot control social mood. Nobody can - it changes for its own, endogenous reasons. The good news is that it changes according to an Elliott wave pattern, and that's what makes it predictable. To forecast it, all you need to know is where the stock market is headed. Which is exactly what our European research tells you about. 

 

In the late 1990s, we are approaching the top of wave (V), which will also mark a Grand Supercycle degree top, the largest in over 2½ centuries. Coextensively, during this time there have been almost too many peace initiatives to count. Olive branches have been offered in the political, religious, racial and social realms worldwide, many of which have addressed grievances and soothed conflicts that have existed for centuries. A European Union was consummated following 1500 years of repeated conflict in the region. The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999)

 

Bulgaria and Romania can thank the rally off the summer lows for their EU membership. Back in May, a few days after the start of a big break in global stock prices, European Commission suddenly slammed on the brakes. Here’s what John Palmer, a writer with the European Policy Center said at the time:

It is an open secret that both countries (but particularly Bulgaria) fall well below the standards expected of EU member-states across the field of justice, policing and state corruption. The commission is right not to facilitate early entry by simply shutting its eyes to the serious problems which exist in the governance of both countries. Lower standards of justice, human rights and the rule of law have an infectious character which would not leave existing EU states untouched.

 

Der Geist Europas 
Handelsblatt.com , Freitag 3. Juni 2005

Wer Wind sät, wird Sturm ernten - das gilt auch für Europa. Seit Jahren verbreiten die Regierungschefs vieler EU-Staaten antieuropäische Ressentiments. In Frankreich und in den Niederlanden ist diese Saat jetzt aufgegangen. 

Europabegeisterung kommt nicht über die Menschen wie der Heilige Geist. Die europäische Idee bleibt nur dann lebendig, wenn überzeugende Führungspersönlichkeiten dafür werben. Helmut Kohl und François Mitterrand ist das gelungen, Gerhard Schröder und Jacques Chirac aber haben es gar nicht erst versucht. Stattdessen schoben Kanzler und Präsident die Schuld für Arbeitslosigkeit und Wachstumsschwäche immer wieder den angeblich unfähigen und machthungrigen Bürokraten der Brüsseler EU-Kommission zu. Zuletzt geschah das mit der EU-Dienstleistungsrichtlinie, die Schröder und Chirac zu Unrecht als liberales Teufelszeug verunglimpften. 

Auch vorher outeten sie sich oft genug als Europaskeptiker. Der Kanzler beschimpfte den seiner Meinung nach zu liberalen EU-Kommissar Bolkestein als unseligen Holländer. Der Präsident gefiel sich darin, schwache Figuren als Chefs der EU-Kommission zu installieren, um sie dann zu demontieren, damit sein eigener Stern umso heller strahle. 
Das Nein der Niederländer und der Franzosen zwingt die Regierungschefs jetzt dazu, ihre eigene Haltung zur EU kritisch zu überprüfen. Wollen sie ihren Nationalstaat vor Europa schützen, oder streben sie eine große und starke EU an? 
Ein starkes Bekenntnis zur europäischen Einigung täte bitter Not - doch nach den vielen Attacken gegen Brüssel fehlt Schröder und Chirac dafür die Glaubwürdigkeit. Ihnen bleibt nur kurzfristiges Krisenmanagement. Die EU-Verfassung können sie nicht mehr retten. Diese Aufgabe kommt jetzt auf die nächste, noch unverbrauchte Generation zu, also wahrscheinlich auf Angela Merkel und Nicolas Sarkozy.

 

3. Juni 2005
ZZ Online 
Verschämter Abschied von der EU-Verfassung 

Immer mehr Länder stehlen sich davon 

Von einer notwendigen Denkpause spricht der deutsche Bundeskanzler. Grossbritannien wird voraussichtlich am 
Montag sein Referendum auf unbestimmte Zeit verschieben. Irland und Portugal zogen ebenfalls den Sinn weiterer Volksabstimmungen in Zweifel. Das Parlament in Estland verschob seine Abstimmung über die Verfassung auf den Herbst. Ein EU-Land nach dem anderen scheint diese inzwischen verloren zu geben. 
TED-Umfrage: 96.9% der Bild-Leser stimmen gegen EU-Verfassung

 

Auch die Niederländer lehnen EU-Verfassung ab (1.Juni 2005) 
Den Haag (AP) Nur drei Tage nach den Franzosen haben am Mittwoch auch die Niederländer der EU-Verfassung eine deutliche Absage erteilt. Laut Hochrechnungen für das Fernsehen stimmten beim Referendum etwa 63 Prozent gegen das Vertragswerk und 37 dafür. Die Beteiligung lag bei 62 Prozent und überschritt damit klar die Schwelle, aber der die politischen Parteien den Volkswillen respektieren wollen. Das klare Nein war allgemein erwartet worden.

Währungsturbulenzen
Euro drohen weitere Kursverluste
Seit Tagen kennt der Euro-Kurs nur noch eine Richtung: nach unten. Die Ablehnung der EU-Verfassung in Frankreich und Gerüchte über ein Scheitern der Währungsunion verunsichern die Märkte. Der Spiegel online, 1.Juni 2005

Währungsunion vor dem Scheitern?

Berichte, wonach Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) und Bundesbankpräsident Axel Weber ernsthaft über ein mögliches Scheitern der Währungsunion gesprochen haben sollen, setzten den Euro zusätzlich unter Druck. Das Magazin "Stern" hatte zuvor geschrieben, in einer vertraulichen Runde von Eichel und Weber mit Ökonomen sei über ein Scheitern des Euro diskutiert worden. Unter Berufung auf vertrauliche Vermerke für Eichel hieß es, die Bundesregierung mache die Einführung der Währung für anhaltende Wachstumsschwäche in Deutschland verantwortlich. In einem weiteren Vermerk hätten Beamte gewarnt, ein Verfestigen der Inflations- und Wachstumsdifferenzen im Euro-Raum berge die "Gefahr einer Anpassungskrise". Der Volkswirt von der Investmentbank Morgan Stanley, Joachim Fels, wurde mit den Worten zitiert: "Das kann in einigen Jahren zum Super-GAU führen: einem Auseinanderbrechen des Euro." "Das ist alles nicht unbedingt vertrauensbildend für die Währung", kommentierte ein Händler die Aussagen.Das Bundesfinanzministerium trat dem Magazinbericht entgegen. "Ich kann einen solchen Termin nicht bestätigen", sagte ein Sprecher Eichels. "Ich kann erst recht nicht bestätigten, dass es in der Bundesregierung eine Diskussion über ein Scheitern der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion oder des Euro gibt", ergänzte er. Insgesamt handele es sich um eine absurde Debatte, an der sich Eichel nicht beteiligen werde. Bundesbankpräsident Axel Weber wies den Bereicht ebenfalls zurück und schließt nach Angaben der Notenbank seinerseits ein Scheitern der europäischen Währungsunion aus.
Der Spiegel online, 1.Juni 2005

Socionomics: 

Herding and Leader Selection: 
Two Results of a Single Cause: social Mood which follows
the Wave Principle 

For example: In January 1998, USA Today summed up the influence of a president positive social mood trend on the image of the leader when it said, "President Clinton is the most resilient survivor of scandal in modern American history." The "Teflon coating" that has allowed scandalous allegations of all kind to slide off his back is simply the sheen of a  positive mood deep in people's minds, which is reflected in rising stock prices. Many  observers see Clinton's new all-time highs in popularity amidst countless scandals as a  paradox. Montgomery explains that it is not: It constitutes a paradox only if one expects our (collective) opinions regarding our leaders to be rational. As neuroscience, much less casual observation, makes clear; the feelings we have for our leaders are the product not of our highest, but rather our lowest, cortical processes." (Montgomery, P.M. (1998, February 4, Universal Economics). 

 

"Auch die Niederländer lehnen EU-Verfassung" (1.Juni 2005) .

"Laut Hochrechnungen für das Fernsehen stimmten beim Referendum etwa 63 Prozent gegen das Vertragswerk und 37 dafür. Die Beteiligung lag bei 62 Prozent und überschritt damit klar die Schwelle, ab der die politischen Parteien den Volkswillen respektieren wollen." 

 

"Fibonacci in Collective Mentation, Including the Stock Market"

Does Fibonacci-patterned decision-making mentation in individuals result in Fibonacci-patterned decision-making mentation in collectives? Data from the 1930s and the 1990s suggests that it does. Lefebvre and Adams-Webber's experiments show unequivocally that the more individuals decisions are summed, the smaller is the variance from phi. 
In other words, while individuals may vary somewhat in the phi-based bias of their bipolar decision-making, a large sum of such decisions reflects phi quite precisely. In a real-world social context, Lefebvre notes by example, the median votum margin in California ballot initiatives over 100 years is 62%. The same ratio holds true in a study of all referenda in America over a decade as well as referenda in Switzerland from 1886 to 1978. 
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, Robert R.Prechter,1999 

 

 

Dollar gains against euro extend

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The dollar extended gains against the euro on Wednesday, with political turmoil expanding amid an expected "no" vote from Holland on the European Union constitution. A German magazine report saying top officials have discussed a possible break-up of the European monetary union also weighed on the common currency. Freerealtime.com, June 1,2005

 

Now here is the Elliott forecast by ELLIOTT today of April 1, 2005, eight weeks before the "political turmoil expanding" and before "no" voting from Holland on the European Union constitution.

 

 

"A Major Sell Signal?"

Euro - Fahrt in Richtung 1,50 Dollar?

Freitag 25. Februar 2005

 

Euro 04/01/2005
(c) ELLIOTT today 

EW Analysis & Forecast

open chart

  Euro 04/01/2005

Chart: futuresource.com

"Elliott observed that markets often travel within parallel trend channels.
Sometimes channels manifest themselves on arithmetic scale, sometimes 
on semilog scale. They most commonly involve a line that connects the ends 
of wave two and four.

"These channels contain prices regardless of wars, energy crises, speeches, assassinations, Watergates, Peanutgates, Travelgates, Zippergates, jawboning
or the weather. Financial markets, it appears, often know exactly where they are, where they have been, and at least in some respects, where they are going. 

The events of economics, politics and history must mean nothing to them.  Conventional views of social causality, chaos , randomness and unpredictability
are incompatible with this observation. The Wave Principle on the other hand, subsumes it. 
[p.326-328 The Wave Principle Of Human Social Behavior]. 

 

 

Another Surprise for Economists 
2/24/2005 

The more economic news you read, the more you see the word "surprise."

The Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research has just released their monthly business confidence
index reading for February. The index, "which measures current conditions and a six-month outlook, 
dropped sharply and unexpectedly to the lowest level since November" (Deutsche Welle).

The news came as a big surprise. February looked very promising, and the consensus forecast among
economists was for a rise. Firstly, business confidence rose in December and January. Secondly, the euro's
been falling against the U.S. dollar - that's good news for export-oriented German economy. 

Thirdly, large-ticket factory orders have been climbing. Fourthly… the list of "reasons" was long. But in the
end, none of them were able to prop up business confidence. 

Why?
The explanation again comes down to social mood. It governs all of society's mass trends, decisions and
functions - including business confidence. The best and quickest indicator of social mood is the stock
market. When stocks go up, it means that society's mood is improving. When stocks fall, social mood is
deteriorating. That's why, to better understand the German business confidence numbers, we must look at
the main indicator of Germany's social mood - the DAX.

The DAX has been in a topping process for most of February. It finally topped on February 15, and has 
been falling ever since. In other words, for most of February, the stock market has been giving us signals
that the German social mood was peaking and a corrective decline was due. That meant that most other
areas of society where mass psychology is present - business confidence, for one - were also likely to be
negatively affected. Another problem with a conventional economic approach is that is tries to forecast future trends based on where those trends have been in the past. This works while the "trend is your friend," but at market turning points, this approach is useless. And the resulting "surprise" takes everyone by storm.

 

---

The Wave Principle
of Human Social Behavior
And The New Science of Socionomics
by Robert R.Prechter, 1999 

 

The Science of History and Social Prediction Best-selling author Robert Prechter’s revolutionary two-book set, Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction spells out a historical correlation between patterned shifts in social mood and their most sensitive register, the stock market.It also presents engaging essays -- representing over 20 years worth of research -- correlating social mood trends to music, sports, corporate culture, peace, war and macroeconomic trends. 

 

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