ELLIOTT today's Forecasts
Real-Time Forecasts Using Elliott Wave Principle
ELLIOTT today's Forecasts
Gold (Weekly Chart)
A Diagonal Triangle?
(c) ELLIOTT today, June 11,2010
Chart: futuresource.com
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S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 30,2010
Again, the ML did a good job to identify the direction of the market. First, breakdown of the ML,
recovery back to the ML and then a more pronounced decline. The recent decline looks impulsive
supporting the count that the recovery from March 2009 has ended. Optimism among traders, also
shows, as Elliottwave.com reports, "one of the more lopsided measures of trader optimism is the
10-day CBOE Equity put/call ratio... More than twice the volume of trading is occurring in calls
versus puts, relecting a very strong opinion among traders that the market will continue higher."
Corporate upper management is confident, too. Says the chief investment officer of RBC Bank...
"the current streak suggests investors are reluctant to sell, making a collapse unlikely."
(Bloomberg). A new KPMG survey shows that six thousand U.S. executives are more optimistic about the
economy than they were six month ago.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 29,2010
The prefered count is shown on the 10min. chart.
Alternate count: (a) = (i), (b) = (ii), (c) = (iii).
Due to the alternate count, the market is in a
wave four correction.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 28,2010
A clear Elliott textbook five-wave structure has been completed yesterday. The rules
and guidelines of the EWP: They are: Wave two never moves beyond the start of wave one,
wave three is never the shortest wave, and wave four never enters the price territory of wave one.
(The Elliott Wave Principle>>>). Wave (iii) broke down below the Fibonacci 1x1 fanline and
traded there until wave i of (c) shot above that line completing a three-wave structure. Alternately,
wave (c) counts as wave i of (c), with more upside potential.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 27,2010
It finally happened: markets plunged across the board.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 23,2010
Now we can add another parallel trend channel. After the five-wave advance,
an a-b-c corrective pattern signaled further price upmove ahead.
Unless the third wave now extends, I wait for a correction in wave iv
and then another leg up.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 22,2010
I always look to identify parallel trend channels, because they offer so much insight into the
market actions. Rather than searching the newspapers, it provides perspective. The channel
may not be perfect, but it is parallel. The price upswing started with a clear-cut small 5-wave-
advance and probably will go higher.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 21,2010
This is another beautiful example how well the Median Line Technique works.
Wave labeling and the ML here is an original overlay from yesterday's chart.
In the first hour of trading the market finished up wave (v) and prices reached
the upper channel line of ML-1. Prices corrected then turned down to the
ML and rebounded. The next decline first find support at the ML but
ultimately the declined to the other site of the channel. The decline is best
counted as an a-b-c x a-b-c.
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S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 20,2010
Median Line technique did a very good job lately as the market run its course within the ML channel quite well.
Wave iii of (iii) showing a gap as the market break above the previous 4th wave, but stopped at the upper ML
channel line. The same happened to wave v of (iii) and the market went sideways. Now this is the point:
An alternate count opens the possibility that wave (c) has already topped.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 19,2010
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 16,2010
Before the fact: Elliott Wave Principle strikes again:
"Five small waves down can be seen from the high and
a three-wave up for wave signals caution ahead."
Elltoday, April 15, 2010The chart doesn't need much to explain: a five decline is clearly visible
and the three-wave "recovery" calls for more to come to the downside.
The high price reading of April 15 was 1,213.95, that is the recovery-wave from
March 2009 gained 547.95 points, while the decline from the alltime-high covered
-910 points. The ratio, you guess is 0.60109, quite close to 0.618 the "Golden Section".For more on Fibonacci please goto Elliottwave.com, March Socionomist: Golden Ratio:
A Guiding Constant of the Universe.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 15,2010
Day's high: 1,213.95. Just as forecasted yesterday, the market pushed higher
completing the wave structure from April 14,2010 (wave b on the chart).
Five small waves down can be seen from the high and a three-wave up
signals caution ahead. Alternately however, the supposed five-wave-
decline from the high could also counted as three-wave structure (because
of the shorter timeframe wave structures often cannot be seen clear enough).
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S&P 500, daily chart
© ELLIOTT today, April 14,2010Chart: open window
Over a year ago, I published the most likely target of the countertrend move.
A Fibonnaci 61.8% retracement is awaited at 1,228 +/-. (March 6,2010 below)Yesterday the market matched a strong upmove (according to the media) and
closed at day's high: 1,210.65. The formation shown on the daily chart was first
introduced on March 15,2010 and so far there is no reason to eliminate that
count. Amazingly, however, under this count the first a-b-c equals the second
a-b-c as the first a-b-c traveled 19.56% and the second (at 1,228) 19.33%).
Wave length equality is often seen in double zigzags or double threes.
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, April 7,2010
A net of Fibonacci fanlines shows perfectly how fanline-analysis can help to get insight into the behavior of markets. For example, after breaking the rising 1x1 to the downside, the market recovered back to the 1x1 but failed at the falling Fibonacci fanline. At the low, two Fibonacci fanlines came together. A Fibonaci 61.8% retracement is awaited at 1,228 +/-.
Pattern Analysis
S&P 500, daily chart
© ELLIOTT today, March 15,2010
The Broadening Formation
(Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, John J.Murphy, 1986, New York Institute of Finance.)
It is actually an inverted triangle or a triangle turned backwards. All of the triangular patterns examined so far show converging trendlines. The "broadening formation", as the name implies, is just the opposite. As the pattern shows, the trendlines actually diverge in the broadening formation, creating a picture that looks like an expanding triangle. It is obviously an extreme difficult pattern to trade because a number of false signals take place during its formation. This pattern also contradicts much of what has already been said about the trend-following approach in the sense that the penetration of a previous peak usually indicates resumption of an uptrend, while the violation of a previous low normally signals either the beginning or the continuation of a downtrend. The trader who is using upside and downside breakouts as action signals will be subjected to a series of bad signals.
ELLtoday's forecast of a strong decline in the major U.S. markets death ahead.
Please open chart: DJIA, Sept 30, 2007
S&P 500, 10 Minute
© ELLIOTT today, March 6,2010
(Date through March 5,2010
The market had a strong rally yesterday and surged along in a clear
five-wave structure. The "sideways" position in wave pattern is best
counted as a contracting triangle, which according to the EWP stands
in the position of wave four. For over a year ago, I published the most
likely targets of the countertrend move. The market nears or has just
retraced more than 51% of the preceding decline. A Fibonnaci 61.8%
retracement is awaited at 1,228 +/-.
Retracements in the S&P 500 Index (2000-2002)
another 61.8% Retracement
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open window
and the outcome
A bit early here.... but better than not
Doest'n Change The Big Picture
Summer High?
open chart
Fibonacci Again...
What The Wave Principle saw before the fact...
Midline works...
Strong up...
Dr. Alan Andrews developed a technical market analysis tool called the Median Line and taught the method in the 1960's and 1970's. He determined there was a high probability price returned to the Median Line - a line drawn on a stock or futures price chart - after making three alternative price pivots. Dr. Andrews stated in his Action-Reaction course:
“…drawing a single line will enable you to know
where the price of any stock or any future is now headed
and the probable time it will reach there.”
AND, the method would,
“…enable the user to be one of the few who can tell where the
prices are headed, and the place they will reach about 80%
of the time, and when approximately that place will be reached.”
ML channel works...
Push Up?
Dangerous...
Extension or Done...
Three Waves up - Five Waves down..
Banker replaced - Cohen quits
