Stocks - A National Obsession
Elliott Wellen Analyse - Perspektive und Ausblick
Dezember 1999
"Fundamentals"
The biggest hook, always, is the so-called "fundamentals," or extramarket onditions, as will be discussed in Chapter 12. One reason why even discussing economics, politics and news is misleading to a proper investment decision is that there is enough of it to justify any conclusion. That being the case, the decision about what news to focus upon typically becomes an emotional-based one. The Elliott Wave Theorist explained in 1983:
Part of the character of a fifth wave of any degree is the occurrence of psychological denial on a mass scale. In other words, the fundamental problems are obvious and threatening to anyone who coldly analysis the situation, but the average person chooses to explain them away, ignore them, or even deny their existence. This fifth wave should be no exception, and will be built more on unfounded hopes, than on soundly improving fundamentals such as the U.S. experienced in the 1950s and early 1960s. And since this fifth wave, wave V, is a fifth wave within a larger fifth, wave (V), the phenomenon should be magnified by the time the peak is reached. By that time, we should be hearing that the global debt pyramid is "no longer a problem," that the market and the economy have "learned to live with high interest rates," and that computers have ushered in a "new era of unparalleled prosperity."
As forecast, investors today are focusing only on the positive aspects of the background conditions, They see the good news, such as the reports of record earnings pouring out of Wall Street, the low inflation rate and an administration that wants Japan to open up its market further to U.S. goods. They conclude that "steady growth with low inflation in an expanding global market is the best of all possible worlds for stocks." The fact that the economy lags stocks is ignored, the fact the administration is careening toward a trade war is ignored. This optimism focus on only the favorable fundamentals is, despite claims to the contrary, bearish for stocks, since anyone who would make a decision to buy on such a basis has, for the most part, already done so.
The bearish side of the news is no less read, but it is not welcome. To any warning such as that contained in this book, the majority says indignantly, "Today is not like 1929." Well, they are right. Today's hidden fundamentals are in fact far worse that those of 1929. The U.S. has lost its place as the fastest growing economy in the world, the dollar is weak, trade deficits have been relentless, the Federal budget deficit is huge, and the level of debt among citizens, corporations, and the federal state and local governments is of historic proportions. Taxes are so high that most working families have more money taken from them in taxes then they spend on food, clothing and shelter, while the combined governments of the U.S. spend more money than every foreign country in the world put together excluding Japan. If anything, these figures are conservative, as they exclude the costs regulation, inflation, countless hidden taxes, and estate taxes. Today, federal, state and local governments, for the first time in history of the country, employ more people in the United States than all the manufacturing industries of the country combined. This is not an insignificant fact, as ultimately, manufacturing supports all wealth. The fact that manufacturing has been hit so hard and goverment has swollen so much reveals deep structural damage. Although none of these observations are perceived as current events or acknowledged as legitimate fundamentals, they are certainly poised to be important in shaping the next phase of current events. By the time those events are manifest, the "fundamentals" hook will be out once again, but next time baited for bears.
"This Time It's Different"
At market turns, the most naive people say, "This time is different." Long time stock market watchers have often commented, "It's never different." Obviously I sympathize more with the latter view than the former, as long as the degree of the trend and turn are comparable. However, there is in fact a basis for saying "This time it's different" that ultimately pertains to the degree of the turn. Compared to previous bull markets of the past fifty years, this one, because it marks the end of a trend at least two degrees larger than the others during this time, is different. The real question, even if you do not know anything about the Wave Principle, is how do you interpret that fact? The fast majority of analysts today improperly interpret the difference as bullish. Sentiment indicators have been crying "wolf" for a while , so the majority of professionals believes that the indicators should therefore be ignored. "Stock prices have been historically high relative to dividends and book value for eight years now, and the market hasn't fallen, so the indiator must be irrelevant." "There has been no bear market for eight years, so the likelihood of one occurring continues to diminish." "The momentum indicators have given several sell signals over the course of the past eight years, and none of them have been right. They obviously don't work." Are these sensible conclusions? Hardly. If it suddenly looks like rain, you take your umbrella, right? If it spends all day getting darker and more threatening, do you conclude therefore that rain is unlikely? Do you throw out your umbrella and dress for sunshine? Or do you head for a storm shelter? Multiple signals are not evidence of ineffectiveness; they convey a higher-degree message. Bearish indicators readings are extending because what is being created is the most negative technical condition in 275 years . It might be said that the indicators were crying "wolf" in 1987, they yelled "grizzly" in 1989, and today are shouting "Gozilla!" When the market is building a Grand Supercycle top, such conditions are normal. The longer that bearish factors remain in place, the greater is their ultimate import.
"Making Money Is Easy"
The implication of the latest academic studies, the linear extrapolation of past trends, and the exhortations to buy and hold, is that making money through investments is easy. The truth is that making money in markets is normally difficult; in fact, for most people it is impossible. If you do not believe it , ask Merril Lynch or the I.R.S. what is the percentage of nonprofessionals who make a net profit in investments over a lifetime. A principal of a futures brokerage firm once confided to me that never in the history of the company had customers in the aggregate ever made a profit over a calender year; they lost money every year. Stock picking and bond investing are no different in that regard except that the time frame for ultimate loss is extended. Like any skill, investing must be learned before it can be successfully applied. Making money in the past four years in stocks has been easy only if you believe that making money in the market is easy. If, like the "old trader" referenced in an earlier quote, you know how difficult it is, you probably have not been fully invested in stocks as they have continued to rise in high valuation territory without a significant correction.
The fact that so many investors, particularly naive investors, have looked so right for a four-year period is simply a reflection of how terrible wrong they ultimately will be. Whatever the near term outcome, on a long term basis you can rest assured that the bullish public is not right. Nor are the professionals who are rationalizing holding a fully invested position here in 1995, when they were fearful and underinvested in 1975 and 1985. Those who are positioned to catch the trend change will make more money in one year that the longs will have made in five.(At The Crest Of The Tidal Wave, p.208-211, (c) 1995, 2001, Robert R.Prechter jr.,)
How Will Investors View The Start of The Bear Market?
As a hint, polls conducted by brokerage firms reveal that during the 9% drop in stocks early 1994, public buyers outnumbered sellers by more than two to one. As another hint, one of the few remaining short selling funds in the country gained a whopping 60% in the first half of 1994, and guess what. More money left the fund than entered! The average investor, who has no clue about the behavior of markets, is fearless of a major market decline. He has "learned" that every pullback is a chance to buy. When the first big down day, week, month or even year hits, it will actually change few people's opinion. Recall that 80% of all the money committed to stock mutual funds over the last 70 years has been committed in the last 5,5 years at an average price of 3540 on the Dow. This statistic not only speaks to the level of optimism that created it, it also explains why people have to stay bullish and hopeful in the face of any contrary evidence. The cognitive dissonance of turning bearish so soon after becoming heavily invested will be too great for most people to handle. Whith that sentiment in place, investors will be exquisitely primed to buy all the way down. When the first decline occurs, assurances will fly with interviews of both professional and novice investors expressing limitless confidence in the long term uptrend. Professionals will continue to give decisive advice to buy more, and public investors will brag about their maturity in feeling no fear. In delievering the Pavlovian response that the market has worked hard to engender, investors will buy more into weakness, certain that the long term trend is still up. Here is what you should expect to hear at various points in the decline. At 5% down: "That's everybody's estimate."At 10%: "That's the gift we've been anticipating for four years!"
At 15%: "This is the maximum for the long awaited 10-15% correction!"
At 20%: "That's the depth of the average bear market!"
At 35%: "It's just a repeat of the 1987 crash!"
At 45%: "This matches 1973-1974!"And so on, always referring to the fall as "a healthy, overdue correction in the long term bull market." If bull markets climb a Wall of Worry, I would add that bear markets slide down a Slope of Hope.
Believe it or not, all this bullish sentiment is, in a sense programmed into all the fancy software that Wall Street is using. The programmers don't know it, but it is true. Most programs use data going back ten of fifteen years, and a few use data going back more than twenty years. In other words, the computer programs that are trying to think their way through stock market have been told that Cycle wave V is normal behavior, the way that stocks always act. The software will be completely befuddled when the bear market hits. Against all the "historical" parameters in their data banks, the market will be considered a bargain when it is down 10%, 20%, 30% and lower, just as if the conclusion were being reached by real people.
Second waves typically recreate the emotions present at the preceding major turn, so psychology in the wave 2 rally should be extremely exuberant, reflecting certainly that the bull market has resumed. Be prepared to resist the relentless drumbeat of hopeful opinion that will accompany most of the first and second waves of the bear market. Their hallmarks will be that (1) "There are too many bears for the market to continue down," and (2) "Stocks are so cheap now that they are bargains." After the peak of wave 2, the buy-and-hold philosophy will begin its long process of melting away, just as the short term trading psychology of ten to fifteen years ago ultimately did. Even during the first half of wave 3, many commentators will justify their bullish opinion on the grounds that the market has fallen so much, so it will be important to maintain perspective. Take a good look at the Grand Supercycle and realize that even at 50% down the bear market had hardly begun. This process will repeat on a larger scale during the rally for Cycle wave B and through the early stages of wave C down.
For the majority, the "point of recognition" that the trend has changed for real will occur in a panic with the center of wave 3 of C, essentially the same position it occurred in the opposite direction on the way up. Ultimately, the deeper the bear market goes, the more news-oriented "reasons" people will find to become bearish on their investments. The waxing bewilderment that will have characterized in the mindset of the bulls up to that point will change to concern. Hope will melt into fear, and fear will ultimately give way to panic. At 90% down, buying weakness will not be in fashion. The old arguments about bears and bargains will eventually be thrown aside, right about the time both are actually true. At the bottom, there will be no discernible news-oriented reasons to own stocks, precisely because news is produced by the same psychology that move markets. With that small bit of profound knowledge, you can spend all the time that most people are in panic calmly making plans to take advantage of the historic buying opportunity that awaits us at the upcoming bottom.
(At The Crest Of The Tidal Wave, p.213-215, (c) 1995, 2001, Robert R.Prechter jr.,)
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DAX 60minute chart
Diagonal Triangle
© ELLIOTT today, 16. April 2010
Chart: futuresource.com
ELLtoday, April 12, 2010:
Since we're working with probabilities, despite the biggest optimism among traders regarding the German DAX, the market comes ever closer to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at around 6,381 points. The arrow on the chart shows that the falling 1x2 Fibonacci fanline is about to connect prices exactly at that level and a warning should not be drawn away.
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Euro watch: How low will it go?
CNN) - Seems like every time you switch on business news in recent days, you hear about the euro hitting “fresh four-year lows.”
This year hasn’t been kind to the euro. A scant six months ago, the euro was trading $1.50 to the U.S. dollar. But that was before the Greek debt crisis erupted into the EU debt crisis, and the 16-nation monetary union is now facing a crisis that has some critics questioning its very existence. The latest round of “fresh four-year lows” happened Monday, with the currency trading as low as $1.1875. What other benchmarks await the euro if it continues its slide? Adrian Bowden, a London-based business editor for CNN International, put together this handy reference:
If the euro falls below $1.1856 - Lowest since February 2006
Below $1.1823 – Lowest since January 2006
Below $1.1799 – Lowest since December 2005
Below $1.1657 – Lowest since November 2003
Below $1.1374 – Lowest since September 2003
Below $1.0762 – Lowest since April 2003
Below $1.0335 – Lowest since 2002
So the question the business world wonders: How low will the euro go?
DAX & Euro
© ELLIOTT today, 12. April 2010
on mouse over see Euro
Chart: futuresource.com
Euro nähert sich Schmerzgrenze
Schattenseite des starken Euro: Der steigende Kurs der Gemeinschaftswährung droht die deutsche Exportwirtschaft in massive Schwierigkeiten zu stürzen. ftd de., Oct 28,2009Ernüchterung kehrt ein
Europas Aktienmärkte rücken von ihren Tageshöchstständen ab. Schlusslicht im DAX ist Infineon - die Anleger folgen einer Analysteneinschätzung und trennen sich von der Aktie. boerse-online.de, April 12,2010
Elliott Wave Analysis
R.N.Elliott observed that impulse waves tend to adhere to trend channels bounded by parallel lines. The first line connects the ends of waves two and four, and the other is extrapolated in parallel from the end of wave three. Jeffrey Kennedy noticed that zigzag corrections also adhere to channels, whose lines touch waves five and B, and A and C. All other channels are spurious.
Once you identify a valid channel, you can use it to help identify some minor trend changes along the way as well as the major trend reversal at the end of wave five (or wave C in a zigzag). As you will see in the chart of the German DAX, sometimes a sub-wave within one of the main five waves will briefly exceed its associated channel line. When that happens, these oulying waves often stay within another, wider trend channel whose parallel lines contain all prices but do not necessarily touch the ends of waves two and four, or three.
Sometimes wave five will short of or exceed the line emanating from the peak of wave three, the latter event is called a throw-over. Throw-overs are usually brief. The further they travel, the more violent the reversal. Once wave five is over and prices re-cross the line, they occasionally return to touch it briefly one last time. The two-four line of a channel provides no impediment to the progress
of the next emerging wave, but sometimes after going past this line, prices will return to "test" it, or touch it briefly, before continuing in the new direction. The following chart will show examples of all these events.Here on the weekly chart of the DAX, I labeled the first upmove as a five-wave structure, Intermediate wave (a), the following correction as an expanded flat (EWP p.38) for wave (b)
and the upwave to 5,900 as Intermediate wave (c). This formation completes an Elliott a-b-c zigzag correction within an overall downtrend, as the five-wave decline from the high of 2007 implies. We know that corrections can morph into more complex structures, such as double-three's or even triple three's. As I see it, wave (x) traced out a 3-3-5 flat correction
with wave c of (x) fell short and did not reach the end of wave a. This behavior is called a "running flat", a formation which is rare. On the other hand, the upmove from wave (x) is a
clear five-wave structure, which can be counted as wave (a) or even (alternately) as wave (c).Since we're working with probabilities, despite the biggest optimism among traders regarding the German DAX, the market comes ever closer to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at around 6,381 points. The arrow on the chart shows that the falling 1x2 Fibonacci fanline is about to connect prices exactly at that level and a warning should not be drawn away.
und der S&P 500: SPX,04/12/2010
A slightly different and more complex count is shown on the labeling of the S&P 500 Index. The first a-b-c up from March 2009 displays a rather very short wave c of (w) fitting not the guideline of the "Right Look." O.K. this is just a guideline, not a rule, though it may be taken as an alternate count. The second a-b-c of wave (y) fits an ending diagonal triangle for wave c but rather than ending here the whole structure, the market decided to move higher. Another weak position for this count. In my opinion, the count of the German DAX fits the "Right Look" a lot better.
EUR/USD: You Can't Blame Greece For Everything
The Greek debt crisis is now the go-to "reason" for market weakness.
Das Gezerre mit dem EURO (seit 10 Jahren)
"Dieser Euro-Kurs ist nicht gerechtfertigt"
Bundesbankpräsident Welteke hat den niedrigen Kurs des Euro als "objektiv
nicht gerechtfertigt" bezeichnet. FAZ 19.5.2000
"Der Euro ist so schwach wie nie zuvor"
Neuer Tiefstkurs zum Dollar - Die Erholung war nur vorübergehend.
"Der Euro ist 30 Prozent unterbewertet"
Bundesbank bezweifelt die Urteilsfähigkeit der Märkte
"In einem Jahr kostet der Euro einen Dollar"
(alle Artikel FAZ)
The world's "big five" central banks - the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada,
the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank -
have just made the anouncement of their lives. Apparently working all night on
Tuesday-Wednesday, the Fed arranged all these players´ cooperation in order
to come up with a plan to bolster confidence among the world's creditors and
borrowers. The Wall Street Journal (12/13) call it "the biggest coordinated show
of international financial force since Sept. 11, 2001."
(Elliottwave International, EWF 12/2007)
Hellas-Hilfe treibt Dax auf 18-Monats-Hoch
manager-magazin.de, April 12,2010Euro auf neuem Jahrestief
manager-magazin de., 4.Mai 2010
ELLIOTT today, Chart of April 30,2010
Chart: futuresource.com
Elliott Wave Analysis.
The EURO trades in (iii) of an extended fifth wave down of Intermediate degree.
The fallout of the Median Line channel signals trouble ahead.
open chart
Euro auf neuem Jahrestief
manager-magazin de., 4.Mai 2010Oh thank you - thank for telling me....but I learned my lesson well...
The Euro: A Lesson In Elliott Wave Analysis
By Nico Isaac
Mon, 29 Mar 2010
On Friday, March 26, Elliott Wave International's Short Term Update opened its euro commentary with this compelling message: "The form in the euro is one that you could use if you were to teach a course on Elliott wave analysis." So, that's exactly what I'm going to do. This makes you, dear readers, my students for the day. And the course is Introduction to the Wave Principle: the Euro Paradigm.
Lesson One: Sentiment. The Wave Principle teaches that extreme measures of investor psychology often occur at major turning points in a market. What defines "extreme," you
might ask? It's when nearly every single passenger on the sentiment ship gets up and moves over to one side so that the boat is certain to tip over. Now, nothing illustrates this imbalance better than the euro fever of November 2009. Back then, daily sentiment readings for the currency rose to a whopping 93% bulls, matched only by these (and countless more) one-sided reports of the mainstream press:"The euro appears poised to continue its ascent against the dollar and smart investors can use options to protect from this." (AP)
"Dollar Slump Persisting As Top Analysts See No Bottom... Analysts say the euro would not likely budge far from the $1.50 mark for many months. As long as the Fed maintains interest rates at historical lows, the EUR-USD should return on a bullish trend." (Reuters)
"Euro appreciation is a mixture of positive economic data, rising risk appetite, and a weak dollar. The euro is still clearly biased to the upside." (International Business Times)
YET -- just as the anti-U.S. dollar sentiment reached fever pitch, on November 26 the euro lost its "upside bias." From there, the currency fell out of orbit in a violent, four-month selloff to the near one-year low we see today. In other words: the sentiment boat tipped over. (What's Next For The Euro? The latest Financial Forecast Service sends a united message about the next big move in the euro currency. Get the complete story today, risk-free.)
On to Lesson Two: Wave Structure. No matter how powerful the other technical readings may be -- of sentiment, time cycles, momentum, and the like -- to an Elliottician, no analysis
is complete without a compelling Elliott wave pattern. And, in the days leading up to the euro's peak, EWI's analysts saw just that. To wit: the November 20, 2009 Short Term Update presented the following close-up of the Euro that showed a nearly completed five-wave rally
from March 2009 and wrote:So far, "traders have not yet been ready to take euro prices lower. But this may change soon. Our view implies that the euro's eight-month rise is either over or will be complete after one final brief upward spike and subsequent reversal. A decline beneath __ that is sustained will confirm that the euro's remaining bullish potential has been eliminated."
So there you have it -- a brief lesson in Elliott wave analysis care of the euro's recent price action. Now, you can apply what you've learned to the euro charts and commentary in our Financial Forecast Service publications AND see where the currency could be in the days, weeks, and years to come. www.elliottwave.com/
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Dieser Artikel wurde im Dezember 1999 verfaßt und an verschiedene Tageszeitungen
und Börsenverlage gesandt. Keine der angeschriebenen Verlage hat jemals auch nur
eine kurze Antwort gegeben.
Elliott Wellen Analyse - Perspektive und Ausblick
Stocks - A National Obsession
Dezember 1999
"Warum auch verkaufen, wenn sich Wall Street doch im schönesten, geradlinigen Anstieg des Jahrhunderts befindet? (FAZ, 7.Dezember 1999)
Vor 10 Jahren, am 3.Januar 1990 erreichte der japanische Aktienmarkt sein historisches Hoch und die damaligen Presseberichte in der letzten Elliott-Impulswelle klangen nicht anders als heute, Ende 1999 Anfang 2000 im Hinblick auf den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt.
"Japan's Breathless Bull Run" lautete eine Schlagzeile und, "...on the floor of the Tokio Exchange, groups of traders periodically break out a round of applause. The spontaneaous outburst is usually a pep rally staged by already hyperactive brokers trying to cheer the market higher. Tokios answer to Wall Street is fanning a veritable financial frenzy. It's a country where stock buying is a national obsession for everyone from housewifes to captains of industry.Japans investors seem remarkably complacent about risks. If there is any fear at all, it't that stocks may rise too far too fast."
Elliott Wellen Analysten werden oft für ihre Prognosen hinsichtlich des zukünftigen, neuen großen Trends kritisiert, insbesondere wenn diese Analysen zum Zeitpunkt historischer Höchststände veröffentlicht werden und die weitverbreitete Illusion zerstören, der gegenwärtige Trend könnte extrapoliert in die Zukunft fortgeschrieben werden. Aber die Aufgabe eines Elliott Wellen Analysten erfordert oft auch einen Schritt zurück in die Vergangenheit und einen Blick auf das große historische Bild, um einen Trendwechsel dieser Größenordnung zu erkennen. Cycle- bzw. Supercycle Wellen bewegen sich in breiten Schwingungen und sind die bedeutensten Strukturen hinsichtlich der zukünftigen Entwicklung sowohl in den Finanzmärkten, als auch im ökonomischen und sozialem Umfeld, daß alle Menschen betrifft, auch jene, die mit den Finanz- märkten nichts oder nur wenig zu tun haben. Das Wissen um die zukünftige große Richtung ist aber für jene eine existentielle Frage, die direkt mit den Finanzmärkten zu tun haben. Die Gesetze und Richtlinien (Rules,
Guidelines), die das Elliott Wellen Prinzip bereithält, lassen eine begründete Prognose hinsichtlich der Richtung, des Grades, der Struktur und des Ausmaßes zu. Das am wenigsten vorauszusagende und damit unsicherste Element, ist die zeitliche Distanz. R.N.Elliott beschrieb in seiner pragmatischen Erforschung des Verlaufs der Aktienmärkte konkrete Strukturmuster, die konstant in ihrer Form, aber variable in ihrer Größe und der Zeit sein können. Die Abbildung #1 "Change - Echo Bubble" zeigt Elliott's Modell eines kompletten, idealen 5-3 Wellenzyklus. (Siehe auch The Elliott Wave Principle)Abbildung #SC1 zeigt den historischen Verlauf des DJIA von 1920 bis 2000 dar. DJIA (open window)
Die Abbildung DJIA Supercycle zeigt den Verlauf des DJIA von 1920 bis 2000. Der erste Teil der 5-3 Sequenz ist deutlich zu erkennen. Fünf Cycle Wellen I, II, III, IV und V sind vorhanden. Es ist deutlich zu erkennen, daß sich die Impulswellen I, III und V jeweils wieder in 5 Primary Wellen teilen. Was noch fehlt sind die 3 Korrekturwellen. Die kommende große Korrekturphase gehört höchstwahrscheinlich in die Kategorie der Flat-, Triangle- oder Double Three Muster und wird in ihren Ausmaßen die gesamte Fachwelt erstaunen lassen. Die Information in Bezug auf die wahrscheinlichste Form des kommenden großen Bärenmarktes stammt aus einem Ende der 1970er Jahre veröffentlichen Chart der Foundation for the Study of Cycles und einem Marktbericht von R.N. Elliott selbst, der am 25.August 1941 erschien. Elliott beschreibt darin, daß im Jahre 1857 ein "Second Wave Bottom" und im Jahre 1929 eine dritte Welle vom Grade eines Supercycles vollendet worden war, so daß die Komplettierung der 5-Wellenstruktur von 1932 - 2000 ein Top des Grades "Grand Supercycle" bedeutet.Ein gutes Verständnis für den Aufbau der Elliott'schen hierarischen Ordnung und die entsprechende Klassifizierung und Kennzeichnung gibt es .........Die kommende große Korrektur im DJIA ist eine Grandsuper Cycle Welle IV, die sich aus 3 Wellen des nächst niedrigeren Grades, der Supercycle Wellen (a),(b) und (c) zusammensetzt. Diese 3 Wellen unterteilen sich wiederum in den nächst niedrigeren Grad, den Cyclewellen. Die ideale Form der kommenden großen Korrektur wäre eine Triangle Formation (Contracting, Expanding oder Ascending), eine "Seitwärts-" Formation mit dramatischen Schwingungen sowohl abwärts als auch aufwärts.
Interessant und aufschlußreich ist eine Schlagzeile von Mitte 1998: "Confident, But Not Spending." Diese Divergenz läßt eine große Lücke zwischen der aktuellen kollektiven Meinung und der zukünftigen Entwicklung erkennen. Ähnliche Divergenzen in den vergangenen 30 Jahren ergaben sich 1969 und 1973, kurz vor signifikanten Markteinbrüchen und den dann folgenden Rezessionen. Investoren reagieren auf ökonomische Trends, aber der Aktienmarkt ist Thermometer und Barometer zugleich. Ein Blick auf die Daten Ende der zwanziger Jahre beweist, dass die Börse und die Wirtschaft fast zeitgleich ihren Höhepunkt erreichten und zusammen ins tiefe Tal der Weltwirtschaftskrise der 30er Jahre abdrifteten. Nicht ein einziges Mal erfolgte
eine wirtschaftliche Erholung bzw. Kontraktion vor einem Anstieg bzw. Abstieg des Aktienmarktes, was eigentlich der Fall sein müsste, wenn die konventionelle Meinung richtig wäre. Diese Chronologie ist übrigens bis in 19.Jahrhundert zurück zu verfolgen. Wenn die massenpsychologische Stimmung der Menschen positiv ist, steigen die Aktivitäten und wenn die Stimmung negativ wird, sinken die Aktivitäten. Die Resultate bzw. die Auswirkungen auf die reale wirtschaftliche Entwicklung schlagen sich nieder in hinterherhinkenden Wirtschaftsdaten und Statistiken (lagging indicators). Die heute geltende Standard Ökonomie hat keine Erklärung für dieses Phänomen. Das Elliott Wave Principle beweist, dass die entsprechende kollektive
Stimmung der Menschen Ereignisse hervorbringt (z.b. Krieg, Frieden) und dass das Ereignis selbst keinerlei prognostischen Wert besitzt. In der Tat war es so, dass während der ersten Hälfte des 1.Weltkrieges die Aktienkurse stiegen, während sie in der zweiten Hälfte fielen. Genau umgekehrt war es während des 2.Weltkrieges. Wenn also die Aktienbörsen vorausgehen, dann kann die große Kondratieff-Welle nicht im Jahre 1932 bzw. 1987 ihre Tiefpunkte erreicht haben. Die Schlussfolgerung, die Weltwirtschaft befände sich am Beginn eines 50-jährigen Aufschwungs (FAZ, 15.Dezember 1999) ist fatal. Der nächste zyklische Boden der K-Welle liegt selbstverständlich noch vor uns. Wenn man den Verlauf des inflationsbereinigten DJIA
studiert, wird deutlich, dass das Ende der Korrektur in der Supercycle Welle (IV) im Jahre 1949 lag. 55-60 Jahre, so die durchschnittlich Dauer der K-Welle, würde einen Zeitraum in der ersten Dekade des neuen Millenniums bedeuten. Der erste Teil der großen a-b-c Korrektur lässt einen temporären Boden in den Jahren 2002 bzw. 2003 erwarten. Die Geschichte zeigt, dass große Bärenmärkte ihre Schatten vorauswerfen und politische Konflikte zunehmende Tendenz aufweisen.Strukturen politischer Erosion spiegeln Strukturen im Aktienmarkt wider, welche ihrerseits die natürlichen Wellen der sozialen Stimmung reflektieren. Die frühe Geschichte der Vereinigten Staaten zeigt ein exzellentes Beispiel.
1837, als eine Supercycle-Korrektur im Aktienmarkt begann. Der Niedergang am Aktienmarkt reflektierte den Trend hin zu einer kollektiven negativen Stimmung, die zum Ausbruch des Bürgerkrieges führte. Eine ähnliche gefährliche Situation hat inzwischen die Europäische Union erreicht. Die gegenwärtigen Aus- einandersetzungen zwischen verschiedenen EU Ländern im Hinblick auf die Hilfen für Griechenland und/oder Portugal zeigt ein "Auseinander-" dividieren der Mitgliedsstaaten. Die grösse und Dauer dieses großen Bärenmarktes wird höchstwahrscheinlich die grössten Auseinandersetzungen innerhalb der EU produzieren und die Solidarität und den Frieden den grössten Spannungen seit dem 2.Weltkrieg aussgesetzt. Der große Bullenmarkt der 50er und 60er Jahre und die positive kollektive Stimmung führte zu einer Handels- und politischen Einheit und Freiheit, die nicht für möglich gehalten wurde. Das Supercycle degree Top Ende der 1990er Jahre brachte einen nie zuvor gekannte Zustimmung und Vereinigungswillen. Frankreich und Deutschland erreichten Übereinstimmung auf
ökonomischer und monetärer Einigung (Monetary Union) im Jahre 1997. Eine Europäische Zentralbank wurde eingerichtet (ECB) und im November 1998 wurde der Euro eingeführt. Die Konferenz von Nizza im Dezember 2000 bezeichnete der französische Präsident Jacques Chirac als "historisches Ereignis."Dieser Zeitpunkt markierte exakt den Gipfelpunkt (climax) des europäischen Optimismus, als es zugleich auch die Türen für die osteuropäischen Staaten öffnete.
Testimonies
"Revolutionary! This book completely turns around the conventional direction of causality between financial markets and social moods and behaviors. This is a pathbreaking work that will be seen as the vanguard for an entirely different view of social and behaviorial phenomena." - John Casti, Ph.D., Professor, Santa Fe Institute and Technical University of Vienna, Austria. Author of Paradigms Lost and The Cambridge Quintet
"The book is a masterpiece of applied science. It serves as an encyclopedia of facts and ideas, making all of us much smarter and more farsighted regarding the dynamics of human society." - Valerie Safonow, Ph.D., Forma Tres Company, Riga, Latvia
"In Pioneering Studies in Socionomics, Robert Prechter has made a strong argument that socionomics describes social and economic behavior better than traditional economic theories. More important, he argues that it provides more useful predictions.He presents a very compelling case." -John Nofsinger, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Finance, Washington State University
"Predicting the stock market is a national pastime. In this book, Prechter and colleagues turn the tables and explore the stock market as a predictor in its own right. Because the market is a sensitive gauge of national and world mood. Prechter holds, its movements can be used to anticipate everything from the popularity of brand names and spectator sports to the outbreak of wars. The socionomic thesis is a provocative one, worthy of serious consideration and investigation." - Brett N.Steenburger, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavorioal Sciences, SUNY Upstate Medical University.
Quelle: Pioneering Studies in Socionomics, (c) 2003
by Robert Rougelot Prechter jr.
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Die Wissenschaft entdeckt das Elliott Wave Principle
Eine Studie in Socionomics
Die "Neue Ökonomie"
(c) Elliott-today, July 2000Enantiodromio
Aus der Sicht des Elliott Wave Principle befindet sich der amerikanische Aktienmarkt Anfang des Jahres 2000 am Top des Grades "Grandsupercycle", was einem Grad höher entspricht als dem Top vom September 1929.