October 2007
Consumer Confidence Plunges
To a Two-Year Low
The Conference Board said on Tuesday its index of consumer sentiment fell more than expected to 95.6 in October down from a revised 99.5 in September. The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters was for 99.0 in October.
The reading was the lowest since October 2005, when the index read 85.2, the Conference Board said.
The Present Situation index decreased to 118.8 in October from 121.2 in September. The Expectations index declined to 80.1 in October from 85.0 in September.
"The decline ... amounts to confirmation that there is a quite profound confidence deterioration under way," said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York. "It's another quantum decline, the third in a row." CNBC, Oct 31,2007
Merrill in $8bn writedown
FT, Oct 25,2007
Mortgage-related hit worse than expected
Fears of further credit losses on Wall StreetCredit squeeze hits RV Capital
FT, Oct 25,2007
RV Capital, a London-based market-maker that trades
in the futures market, became the latest casualty of the
credit market turmoil after putting itself into administration yesterday.
Woman Gain Dominance in Bear Markets
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter)
Kirchner claims Argentine victory
Argentine first lady Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner declared victory Sunday night as election returns showed her leading all rivals in her bid
to succeed her husband and become the country's first female
president. cnn, Oct 29,2007
Präsidentenwahl in Argentinien
"Cristina Presidenta!"
Die Umfragen prophezeiten es schon lange - trotzdem ist es eine Sensation: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner ist die erste gewählte Präsidentin Argentiniens. Die bisherige First Lady wird am 10. Dezember ihren Mann,
Néstor Kirchner, im Amt ablösen. stern.de, Oct 29,2007
Fankrawalle in Dresden
Mit Steinen und Leuchtraketen gegeneinander
Nach dem Spiel in der sächsischen Fußball-Landesliga zwischen Dynamo Dresden und dem 1. FC Lok Leipzig ist es am Sonntag zu schweren Ausschreitungen gekommen. stern.de, Oct 29,2007
Hooligan-Chaos in Italien
stern.de, Oct 29,2007
Randale in Essen: Feuer mit Folgen
stern.de, Oct 29,2007
Kurdenkonflikt
Erdogan droht mit Irak-Einmarsch
Nach dem Scheitern der Krisengespräche mit dem Irak hat der türkische Ministerpräsident Erdogan nun offen mit dem Einmarsch ins Nachbarland gedroht. stern.de, Oct 29,2007
Brutal selloff on Wall Street
Dow down almost 367 points, its third worst day of the year, on fears about credit and housing sector, earnings, record-high oil prices, slide in dollar, what the Fed will do next. CNNMoney.com, October 19 2007.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com, Oct 20,2007) -- Stocks tumbled Friday as record-high oil prices, more problems in the bank sector and slower corporate earnings growth revived worries abtut an economic slowdown.
Before the Fact !!
"Below 1500 is not "out of the blue!"
(October 15,2007, Maria Kostelletou-Lachmann, SPTD-07)
Prices surged above the upper ML-2 (yellow) and failed. 1520 is next pport but I doubt the SPX will respect the ML-1. Below 1500 is not "out of the blue!" [Details only to subscribers !!!] (Maria Kostelletou-Lachmann)
War and peace loom large as themes at the Tokyo International Film Festival. The annual event this year pays tribute to the host city with a catalog of 43 movies -- including director Akira Kurosawa's 1949 noir-style film ``Stray Dog'' -- that chronicle Tokyo's postwar transformation from devastation to economic hub.(Bloomberg.com), Oct 19,2007
Witches' Brew Following Natalie Dessay's sensational turn in the title role of ``Lucia di Lammermoor,'' the Metropolitan Opera continues its season of women on the verge with a new production of ``Macbeth.'' (Bloomberg.com), Oct 19,2007
US- RUSSISCHE BEZIEHUNGEN
Feindschaft reloaded
US-Präsident Bush hat sich getäuscht: Nach 9/11 sah er Putin als Freund. Doch der verfolgt seit Jahren knallhart russische Machtpolitik - ohne Rücksicht auf persönliche Bande. Jetzt droht die zerbrochene Freundschaft in offene Feindschaft umzuschlagen. Der Iran-Konflikt ist nur ein Beispiel.
(Spiegel.de. 18.10.2007) Socionomics explains >>>Inclusion/Exclusion:
A rising mood leads to feelings of social brotherhood and acceptance among races, religious and political territories, as well as toward animals, plants and proposed aliens. A falling mood leads to apartheid, religious animosity, cavalier cruelty, sezession, independence movements and Images of aliens as Monsters.
Britney Spears: Niemand will sie singen hören
Drogenmissbrauch, Scheidung, der Kampf ums Sorgerecht: Das sind die Themen, mit denen Britney Spears immer wieder Schlagzeilen macht. Ihr neues Album hingegen interessiert kaum jemanden - es ist von den Top Ten meilenweit entfernt.
(Spiegel online, Oct 20,2007)
Sign of a Top?
Madonna to sign $120M record deal
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Madonna intends to sign a $120 million recording and touring deal with live entertainment promoter Live Nation Inc. and leave her longtime record label at Warner Music Group Corp., a person familiar with the contract negotiations said Wednesday. CNN, Oct 11,2007
Calling Reversals for Public Icons on the Basis of Extreme Events
Even though one may not have charts of superstars' waves handy, sometimes events are so extreme as to serve as a top signal. However, just because someone receives an award does not mean that this persona is peaking, and just because he is the subject of a negative article does not mean that this persona is bottoming. To serve as such a signal, an event must truly be an extreme social assessment of value.One major top in the DJIA was July 1990. That Year also brought Michael Jackson a record deal with Sony Corp. And what happened to MJ in between? Story>>>
Experten
Ganz oder gar nicht
Hedge Fonds
Donnerstag, 11. Oktober 2007
Seine Mutter war erst zufrieden, wenn er der Beste war und sein Vater prognostizierte seinen Untergang. Beide sollten recht behalten. Victor Niederhoffer ist einer der bekanntesten Hedge-Fund-Manager und er hat gerade zum zweiten Mal das Vermögen seiner Kunden in den Sand gesetzt.
Geboren in Brooklyn, New York und studiert an der renommierten Harvard-University, sorgte Niederhoffer erstmals im Sport für Aufsehen. Er gehörte zu den besten Squash-Spielern der Welt
und gewann die US Nationals fünf Mal. http://blog.zeitenwende.ch/
Ifo-Index zeigt konjunkturelle Bremsspuren
Handelsblatt, 25.Sept. 2007
See Socionomics2007
Economy
Ifo-Zeit, sich warm anzuziehen
Quelle: blog.zeit.de, 10/11/2007
Fed interest cut boosts markets
European stocks leapt and Wall Street prospects brightened significantly on Friday after the U.S Federal Reserve cut one of its interest rates in a bid to improve credit conditions and calm rattled financial markets. cnnmoney, Aug 17,2007
Protection
Trading Shots On Trade
CNBC.com, October 10,2007
U.S. Congressman Duncan Hunter addressed the trade imbalance issue and said he would pass a bill that would bring overseas manufacturing jobs back to the United States. Read more>>>
Corporate Earnings
As I write this paragraph, today's newspaper sports this headline in the business section:"Determining What Will Move Market Not Difficult - But Forecasting Its Direction Is Harder."
The "easy" part is no surprise, since virtually everyone in finance agrees:Earnings are the primary sources of stock price movement, which accounts for Wall Street's preoccupation with next month's earnings reports. Is the indicator valid? Are stocks driven by corporate earnings?
In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Goldman Sachs's Barrie Wigmore, who found that "only 35% of stock price growth (in the 1980s) can be attributed to earnings and interest rates." Wigmore concludes that all the rest is due simply to changing social attitudes, toward holding stocks. (Actually, all of it is due to changing social attitudes, and earnings are their product.) Says the Journal, "This may have just blown a hole through this most cherished of Wall Street convictions." Loewenstein,R. (1991, June 6). "Goldman study of stocks' rise in ´80s poses a big riddle." The Wall Street Journal, p.C1
This study shows that even in retrospect, the "fundamentals" that most analysts are relying upon have little relationship to stock market movement. What about simply the trend of earnings vs. the stock market? Well, since 1932, corporate profits have been down in 19 years. The Dow rose in 14 of those years.In 1973-74, the Dow fell 46% while earnings rose 47%. 12-month earnings peaked at the bear market low. Earnings do not drive stocks. As Figure 19-2 Illustrates and as Arthur Merrill showed years ago, earnings lag stock trends.
As shown in Chapter 16, the economy lags stock trends. It is therefore impossible for earnings or the economy to drive stocks. Forecasting the stock market is indeed impossible when the supposedly easy part is a wrong premise. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 by Robert R. Prechter)Welcome to the Reuters Before the Bell news mail. (Reuters, Oct 9,2007
Wall Street is giving a cautious welcome to the third-quarter earnings season, which starts after the closing bell with results from aluminum maker Alcoa.
Stock futures are pointing up a bit on a day that also brings the release of minutes from the last Fed meeting. Of course, everyone's looking for signs that more interest-rate cuts could be in the offing.
Forex traders are betting a cut won't come this month. The dollar has firmed against the euro, drawing support from a more positive outlook for the U.S. economy.
The stronger dollar has pushed down the price of commodities, including oil. U.S. crude has fallen below $79 a barrel, with another shove coming from weaker demand at the end of the summer gasoline season.
U.S. Treasuries are steady, but that's better than the pounding they took on Friday - their latest trading session - on stronger-than-expected employment data. A steeper yield curve is suggesting that investors still expect a rate cut later this year.
The United Auto Workers has given Chrysler until 11 a.m. tomorrow to strike a deal on a new contract. If not, the union says it will be doing the striking.
Johnson Controls is warning that its quarterly results will miss Wall Street's expectations.
Socionomics:
Die Experten
Tabula rasa bei der UBS
Immobilien
Montag, 1. Oktober 2007Die Krise auf dem amerikanischen Hypothekarmarkt reisst die UBS erstmals seit neun Jahren in die Verlustzone. Die grösste Schweizer Bank gab Abschreibungen von vier Milliarden Franken und einen Verlust von bis zu 800 Millionen Franken im dritten Quartal bekannt.
Wer in den letzten Tagen glaubte, die Hypothekar-Krise in den USA sei bereits Geschichte, wird nun eines besseren belehrt. Höchstkurse an den Finanzmärkten und eine Trendumkehr bei den Immobilienmärkten, das passt einfach nicht zusammen. http://blog.zeitenwende.ch/
60 Prozent der Bayern wollen Stoiber nicht mehr
Edmund Stoiber rutscht ab: 60 Prozent der Bayern wollen ihn nach einer Umfrage des "Stern" nicht mehr als CSU-Spitzenkandidaten 2008.
Es ist ein Auf und Ab für Stoiber. Schon vor drei Tagen verursachte eine andere Forsa-Umfrage reichlich Unruhe. Die Meinungsforscher hatten bundesweit gefragt, ob die CSU möglicherweise ohne Stoiber ein besseres Ergebnis erzielen könne. 62 Prozent der Befragten stimmten dem zu, nur 26 Prozent waren der Ansicht, dass die CSU mit Stoiber als Spitzenkandidat 2008 besser abschneiden könne.
Spiegel online, 3.jan.2007 Read Why??
Die Grundstimmung an den deutschen Märkten war prächtig: "Ich gehe davon aus, dass wir uns zunächst über 4000 Punkten halten und bis Ende des Jahres das alte Jahreshoch noch knacken",
sagte ein Händler. Die Zinsen schienen weiter niedrig zu bleiben und viele befürchteten einen Rückschlag bei den Renten, so dass diese Anlageklasse als Alternative nicht so attraktiv sei, fügte er hinzu.Champions of news causality truly have a fundamental problem, which is that no investor really knows the implications of any piece of news. This fact is hidden by the ease with which financial news writers can retrospectively pull out from the plethora of news
on any given day a story that appears to justify whatever market movement occurred. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, R.R.Prechter) Read more>>>
"The coming trend of negative social psychology
will be characterized primarily by polarization between and among various perceived groups, whether political, ideological, religious, geographical, racial or economic. The result will be a net trend toward anger, fear, intolerance, disagreement and exclusion, as opposed to the bull market years, whose net trend has been toward benevolence, confidence, tolerance, agreement and inclusion. Such a sentiment change typically brings conflict in many forms, and evidence of it will be visible in all types of social organizations..." (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, R.R.Prechter)