SP500 Chart MAP
Elliott Wave, Pattern & Outcome !

Examples

SPX, 8/6/2004

SPX,daily ,8/5/2004

SPX,10min.,8/4/2004

SPX,daily 8/3/2004

SPX, 06/22/05

High of January 11,2006
(C) ELLtoday, Jan12,2006

Five Waves Up Complete

For the most part, five-wave formations have clear cut wavelike characteristics with infrequent irregularities. Most contain what Elliott called extensions. Extensions are exaggerated or elongated movements which generally appear in one of the three impulse waves (1, 3 or 5). At times the subdivisions of an extended wave are nearly the same amplitude and duration as the other four main waves, giving a total count of nine waves of similar size rather than the normal count of "five" for the sequence. (EWP, p.25)

High of June 22,2005

Median Line Technique in Action
(c) ELLIOTT today

SPX; 06/23/2005. Once again, the market held above the ML-2 shown on June 21,2005. (see chart below). Yesterday's fractionally new high CAN be labeled as a "thrust out of a triangle" as shown on the chart. The following decline traced out what looks like a five-wave structure on the line chart and 
stopped slightly above the ML-1. Waves a and b formed three-wave structures and the advance in wave c is a five. The bounce pulled back into the area of 1216 as forecasted on 06/22/2005:"The upper channel line of ML-2 is virtually important, since the highs of 1219 and 1216 failed 
at that line and in each case a decline followed." Again, that area seems to be of importance, since the upper channel line of ML-1 points to 1216-1217. 

 

SPX, 06/24/2005. 10min. chart, closing prices. whenever the market is moving back and forth in a narrow range, tracing out emotional and frustrating three wave movements, it's a strong betthat a triangle is in progress. The wave structure shown on the chart is a series of "threes" contained within converging lines , the classic depiction of a contracting triangle. The following "thrust out of the triangle" marked the top closing price on June 22,2005, 148 calender days from the low of January 24,
2005 and 467 calender days from the high of March 5,2004. (467/2 = 233.5). The S&P declined in five small waves to 1212.49 and started a countertrend move in three waves, labeled a-b-c forming a classic expanded flat (irregular flat) for wave (ii). Wave (ii) retraced almost exactly 0.618 of the preceeding
decline and from that point the biggest decline of the last 10 weeks started. A fibonacci 0.236 retracement measured from 1136 to 1219 is 1199 (almost there) and a 0.382 retracement comes in at 1187. The wave structure calls for a slight new low and then a countertrend move to about 1208 and thereafter another wave down (v).

SPX, 30min., 06/24/2005

SPX, 06/23/2005. Short term, the picture is mixed. As long as the recent low holds the market is poised for a counter trend rally most likely into the area of the ML-2. And there is a gap left open at 1216.50. 

SPX, 06/24/2005. Whenever the market is moving back and forth in a narrow range, tracing out emotional and frustrating three wave movements, it's a strong bet that a triangle is in progress. The wave structure shown on the chart is a series of "threes" contained within converging lines , the classic depiction of a contracting triangle. The following "thrust out of the triangle" marked the top closing price on June 22,2005, 148 calender days from the low of January 24, 2005 and 467 calender days from the high of March 5,2004. (467/2 = 233.5). The S&P declined in five small waves to 1212.49 and started a countertrend move in three waves , labeled a-b-c forming a classic expanded flat (irregular flat) for wave (ii). Wave (ii) retraced almost exactly 0.618 of the preceeding decline and from that point the biggest decline of the last 10 weeks started.

The High Of June 2004
SPX, 06/24/2004

SPX, 06/24/2004. Five waves up from the low of June 22,2004. The market traced 
out an expanded fifth wave (i.e., extension, EWP p.24). Extensions are exaggerated or elongated movements which generally appear in one of the three impulse waves 
(1,3 or 5). At times, the subdivisions of an extended wave are nearly the same 
amplitude and duration as the other four main waves, giving a total count of nine waves 
of similar sizes rather than the normal count of "five" for the sequence. Note how the ML-1(red dotted line) "catched" wave V to the minute. Prices declined later into the low 
of August 13,2004
at 1060. 

SPX,12/16/2004. The 5min.-chart reveals a classic diagonal triangle 5th wave ended today. At least , after the DT is complete, the market retraces back to where the DT began.   

SPX,12/16/2004. Five waves down can be counted on the 5min. chart. A Fibonacci 0.618 retracement for wave ii comes in at 1204. The decline traced out an extended fifth wave, though the possibility for a countertrend move back to the fourth wave of even 1205 may be a possibility. What matters is form. A three-wave structure against the impulse wave down is a correction.

SP500 Index,10min.,chart, 01/28/05.  Yesterday I speculated wheather the wedge formation is a DT type 2. The decline occured as a clear cut three-wave structure, 
a 5-3-5 a-b-c zigzag. Prices should move higher next week. (DT type 2 = leading 
diagonal triangle, 1 or a.)

SPX,10minute chart, 01/27/2005. A wedge-shaped formation (DT possible) seems is near completion. A break of 1172 points to lower prices.Question:  IS it a LEADING DT?

S&P 500 Index [SPX] 
© ELLIOTT today,April 8,2004

Chart: www.tradesignal.com

S&P 500 Index

The Top Of March 5,2004

"Early Warning - Wedge Shaped"
© March 5,2004 - ELLIOTT today

Short term update, March 5,2004,S&P 500 Index [SPX] 

S&P 500 "topped"
© ELLIOTT today,March 5,2004:

"The hardest thing is to believe what You see !" Hamilton Bolton 
[Elliott Wave Principle, Frost & Prechter,1990,Expanded Editon]

Figure 1

Chart: www.tradesignal.com

None of these stocks are buy or sell recommendations. There is a high degree of risk in trading.This chart contains information that we reserve for subscribers.So please understand, that the whole Elliott Wave count cannot be displayed. Choose a subscription that's right for you. >>>INFO  

Chart: www.tradesignal.com

None of these stocks are buy or sell recommendations. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

...and the outcome

S&P 500 Index - The Top Of March 2004

"A Picture Worth More Than 1000 Words"
© March 26,2004 - ELLIOTT today  

S&P 500 Index, March 26,2004: The S&P 500 fell -76 points in 13 trading days....

S&P 500 Index, Januar 31,2004: 
©ELLIOTT today, K.H.Lachmann 

On November 15,2003 I presented a chart of the S&P with the headline: “Sierpinski’s Triangle Numbers In The S&P 500.”  I than labeled the low of July 24,2002 as Primary Wave [A]. The low on July 24,2002 occurred at 775. Now observe 775 x 2 = 1550 just shy off 3 points of the alltime-high on March 24,2000. The distance from July 24,2002 to January 26,2004 is 542 days.  542 divided by 1155 [the high on 1/26/04] gives .469, shy off .466 the Sierpinski number.  The number of days from the alltime-high to January 26,2004 is 1382. On March 24,2000 the S&P registered an alltime-high-price of 1553 points. Now observe 1553 x .885 = 1374,4 [+/-7.6]. 

Price and time met on January 26,2004 almost perfectly: 1553-768= -785 points. October 10,2002 to January 26 gives 466 days. The ratio is .5936, close to .618.  These relationships do not merely produce striking after-the-fact formulations, but conform to formulations long ago recognized. The (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag correction since October 10,2002 formed another striking example of these numbers discussed here: Wave (a) traveled +186 points or 24,2% [measured from the low of 768 to the orthodox high of 954] and wave (c ) traveled +366 points or 46,38% [.466 x 100]. The ratio is .5217 close to .5265 [Sierpinski number]. A.J. Frost often noted prices travel by squares, i.e. 34x34=1156.  Remember the low price of March 12,2003? 784 = 28x28 shy off 5 points of the actual low of 789. 

The main point to make is that a critical juncture has been reached, one that was identified well in advance.  Given the market’s action last week the striking clue is that the S&P 500 formed an weekly-outside-reversal ! It happened before as you can see on the chart. Watch the lower trendchannel-line, it usually happens in wave three.    

S&P 500 Index

10min. Chart of March 5,2004

"Fibonacci"
© March 5,2004 - ELLIOTT today

None of these stocks are buy or sell recommendations. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

Alert Update - Topped
S&P 500 Index, March 5,2004:
Five waves up from Wednesday, March 3,2004 can be counted as complete.

On Friday, March 5,2004 at 10.30 the S&P 500 reached 1163,23 close
 to our longstanding target of 1160 first presented on January 21,2004:

Short term update, S&P 500 Index, January 21,2004: 

ELLIOTT today, January 21,2004:
"After the wave (iv) correction, the S&P 500 may be on its way to 1160,50 
[50% Fibonacci retracement 1553-768]."

Within 30 minutes the S&P 500 fell sharply more than 10 points indicating a small wave (i) down has been in place. The recovery looks like a corrective structure [three-waves] which ended at 1160, the point of a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement. Prices now should start a decline most likely below 1148-1149.

 

Disclaimer

The material is ONLY PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES AND PAPER TRADING.The recommendations are for paper trading to develop your skills for real time trading. If you can make profits in paper trading, and wish to trade real time with real money and 
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THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

The material does not recommend or otherwise imply that any trading position be taken, which is,and only can be initiating trader's decision and responsibility. I am not a registered financial advisor - and cannot give such advice.

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