[ Home ] [ SPTD-08 ] [ Elliott Wave Articles ] [ Wave Principle ] [ Socionomics08 ] [ Info ]

10/06/08

Monday, October 06, 2008 20:29:19

S&P 500 TradingDESK - Daily Update

A Word About Our Subscription Services

How many times have you heard a financial news reporter tell you the market rose or fell because of some particular news item? 

Advances and declines are the result of processes, not events. The problem with news is that it is, well, news. That means either it's happening now or it already happened. Trading on news is a frustrating game, especially if the market doesn't move in the direction that the news might imply.

But, what if you could anticipate what the market is likely to do, and, better still, be prepared ahead of time with alternative trading strategies? Wouldn't that be more useful to you than chasing headlines, along with everybody else?

Our subscriptions combine the high-probability forecasting power of Elliott Wave Analysis along with key measures of market sentiment to help you trade effectively and manage your risk.

 

Here Is What You Get

Whether you subscribe to our  Weekly Update,  you get our independent, unbiased analysis of what lies ahead. You get intraday forecasts, key support and resistance levels and a visual "Median Line" showing the current trend and expected move. 
Examples>>>

Subscriber Services

ELLIOTT today offers an individual subscription service: 

The ELLIOTT today  WeeklyUPdate [EFA-0107]

This service utilizes in-depth studies of Elliott Wave fractal patterns & Fibonacci analysis, combined with a study of market sentiment measures. 
Our focus is on identifying high probability price forecasts, in an unbiased 
and easy to follow format. 

Let’s let the forecasts speak for themselves. 

 

For more information: 
mail to : khl618@yahoo.com

 

Testimonies:

What Visitors have to say:

I just recently discovered your website, I like your clearly labelled charts. I haven't been able to find any sites with Elliott wave charts that even come close to yours! Your SPX charts have been a great reference to me for clearing up the smaller details. Best Regards, Brad, Feb 5, 2007

BTW, you guys are still da best wavy-gravy on da net - bar none! And you can quote me on that!! scamman, Jan 26, 2007, clearstation.etrade.com

"Hi John - The Elliott chart I cited yesterday12:43 PM turned out to be the most prescient one of all - projected 1128; SPX high of day was 1127.65. Not too shabby!" Clearstation

Great call this morning! I caught most of the move up. Do you think the current consolidation is a fourth wave? Thanks, Eric

---

Week of  October 6 ,2008 - October 10 ,2008

NASDAQ Composite Index

Wave Structure

© ELLIOTT today, October 6,2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Week of  Sept 29 ,2008 - Oct 3 ,2008

S&P 500, 10min, Oct 2,2008
(posted  Oct 3, 2008

 

 

 

Now it happened: New low in the S&P 500 and a drop to 1081 is likely.
The chart displays 1) how the market dropped to the lower ML channel line
and pulled back only to break the channel 2). At 3) the market made a classic pullback
to the breakpoint and collapsed down.

The 'techs' are down 52% when related to the previous uptrend from 1108 to 2861.
Likewise the S&P 500 is down 59% against the previous upmove from 775 to 1576.
The DJIA by comparison is down 58%.[Details only to subscribers]

 

NASDAQ Composite Index

Wave Structure

© ELLIOTT today, October 5,2008

 

 

 

Bailout Package Offers No Solace 
The Dow industrials lost 157 points, as investors followed news of the passage of the bailout package in the House by selling equities. WSJ, Oct 5,2008

 

 

Week of  Sept 29 ,2008 - Oct 3 ,2008

S&P 500, 10min, Oct 2,2008
(posted  Oct 3, 2008

 

 

Europe's Real Estate Slump May Spark Wave of Local Bank Mergers Bloomberg.com, Oct 3, 2008



Stocks Thrashed on Recession Fears 
The Dow industrials fell nearly 350 points on rising recessionary fears, despite progress toward passage of a bailout bill. WSJ, Oct 3, 2008

[Details only to subscribers]

 

1 Year Ago !!!

DJIA - Market Update & Forecast 
ELLIOTT today, Oct 4, 2007

© ELLIOTT today, October 4,2007

 

 

 

S&P 500, 10min, Oct 1,2008
(posted  Oct 2, 2008

 

 

W.D. Gann used geometric angles drawn from pivot highs and lows to visualize how the market was balancing price and time. The most important angle, Gann said, was the 1x1 angle which was allegedly set at 45 degrees. Many so-called Gann analysts believe 1x1 means one point in price per one day of trading. Fast markets moved at 2x1 which allegedly meant two points of price per one day of trading. You can still buy "special" Gann charting paper (that must be woven with gold) if you believe that. What happens when you want to see a 1x1 angle on the Dow which is trading at 10,000? One point a day for 10,000 days doesn't cut it.

[Details only to subscribers]

 

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 30,2008
(posted  Oct 01, 2008

 

 

Again, the market failed at the falling 1x2 and gapped down.
(Three-Wave-Structure up is only corrective in character)

[Details only to subscribers]

 

 

 

S&P 500, daily, Sept 29,2008
(posted Sept 30, 2008

 

 

For the third time, the market touched the falling 1x1 FiboFanline.  

Chart #2 shows the big picture: the market dropped through the rising 1x1 FiboFanline from the year 2002 and reached the most 
important Fibonacci level: 0.618

[Details only to subscribers]

 

#2 Chart: S&P 500 Index, daily

 

 

[Details only to subscribers]

Historic Bailout Vote Fails in the House by Narrow Margin; 
Markets Plunge, Forcing a New Scramble to Solve the Crisis 

The House sent the Bush administration's $700 billion rescue package to defeat, a stunning 
turn of events that revealed political divisions. The Dow plunged about 780 points as fears 
grew that more banks could fail. The Nikkei followed Wall Street lower, ending down 4.1%, 
but several Asian indexes and European markets pared losses amid rising rate-cut hopes.
WSJ, Sept 30,2008

Markets plunge after U.S. bailout failure 
Shares dumped after U.S. bailout rejection
Asian markets tumble, Europe mixed
Russian trade briefly suspended
Ireland backs bank deposits as stocks fall
Belgium bails out faltering bank Dexia
CNN, Sept 30,2008

 

Paulson Suggests Worst Is Past

Paulson said the overall picture of U.S. financial markets has improved in recent months despite continuing challenges in the housing market. "We are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning," he said. WSJ, May 17,2008

 

The Degree of Mood 

Change Determines the Degree of the Results

The socionomic hypothesis suggests that the extremity of social behavior should be directly proportional to the extremity
of the social mood swing. This is indeed the case. The longer, further and more broadly the stock market rises, reflecting
a waxing positive mood, the more consistently the economy expands, the more citizens vote to “stay the course,” the more children people produce and the more broadly peaceful is the resulting social climate. The longer, further and more broadly 
the stock market falls, reflecting a greater swing toward negative mood, the more deeply the economy contracts, the more citizens vote to “throw the bums out,” the fewer children people produce and the greater is the resulting social tension and conflict.

 

The Wave Principle Of Human Social Behavior 
And The New Science Of Socionomics

by Robert R. Prechter,Jr.,1999
[Elliott Wave International]

 

 

 

 

Socionomics: 
The Science of History and Social Prediction

The Science of History and Social Prediction spells out a historical correlation between patterned shifts in social mood and their most sensitive register, the stock market. It also presents engaging essays -- representing over 20 years worth of research -- correlating social mood trends to music, sports, corporate culture, peace, war and macroeconomic trends. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 by Robert R. Prechter)  

More about Socionomics>>>

 

---

 

 

Week of  Sept 22 ,2008 - Sept 26,2008

 

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 26,2008
(posted Sept 27, 2008

 

 

The ML-1 should give an answer to where the market is headed next week.
So far, the "recovery" seems to be very weak and the wave structure so far is only a "three" ! What that means? Please see Elliott Wave Principle>>>

 

Presumed Mechanical Determinants of Market Movements

A variant of the approach that assumes society is a machine is the idea that the stock market is a machine. If it is running properly, the implied idea seems to go, then prices rise. If prices fall, the machine is broken. The trick, then, is to identify the weak cogs every now and then and fix them. The crash of 1987 was such a storm of mass emotion that it caused "market as machine" theorists to work overtime explaining
the drop and figuring out how to "fix" the system. The theory that gained the most credence was that the crash was caused by so-called portfolio insurance computer programs, which in essence sold stocks as the market went lower. This process presumably fed upon itself. Unfortunately for the theory, it does not explain very well why markets around the world crashed simultaneously or why the decline stopped.
it is an utter loss to explain why many indexes around the world that had no computer trading fell further than the DJIA. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter) 

The Wave Principle Of Human Social Behavior 
And The New Science Of Socionomics

by Robert R. Prechter,Jr.,1999
[Elliott Wave International]

 

 

 

 

S&P 500, daily, Sept 23,2008
(posted Sept 24, 2008

 

 

This is the daily-chart of the S&P 500 from May, 19, 2008 with Median Line and ML channel. Yesterday I said, "Keypoint is 1190-1185, that is where
rising and falling Fibo Fanlines connect." 

Low of the day (Sept 23,2008): Low 1187.06 , Close 1188.22

The market has now reached an important Fibonacci juncture, too. [Details only to subscribers]

 

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 22,2008
(posted Sept 23, 2008

 

Keypoint

 

 

The sharp drop Monday brought back pessimism again, but I think as long as the 
latest lows are not prenetated to the downside there is a good chance of higher 
prices ahead. Keypoint is 1190-1185, that is where the rising and falling Fibo fanlines
connect. [Details only to subscribers]

---

 

 

Week of  Sept 15 ,2008 - Sept 19,2008

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 20,2008
(posted Sept 21, 2008

 

 

[Details only to subscribers]

 

 

Play it again, uncle Sam...

Pitchfork

© ELLIOTT today, September 20,2008

 

 

...again

Dr. Alan Andrews developed a technical market analysis tool called the Median Line and taught the method in the 1960's and 1970's. He determined there was a high probability price returned to the Median Line - a line drawn on a stock or futures price chart - after making three alternative pivots. Dr. Andrews stated in his Action-Reaction course: 

“…drawing a single line will enable you to know
where the price of any stock or any future is now headed
and the probable time it will reach there.” 

AND, the method would, 

“…enable the user to be one of the few who can
tell where the prices are headed, and the place
they will reach about 80% of the time,
and when approximately that place will be reached.” 

[Details only to subscribers]

 

 

S&P 500 Index daily, Sept 18, 2008

posted Sept 19, 2008  

 

 

Dr. Alan Andrews developed a technical market analysis tool called the Median Line and taught the method in the 1960's and 1970's. He determined there was a high probability price returned to the Median Line - a line drawn on a stock or futures price chart - after making three alternative pivots. Dr. Andrews stated in his Action-Reaction course: 

“…drawing a single line will enable you to know
where the price of any stock or any future is now headed
and the probable time it will reach there.” 

AND, the method would, 

“…enable the user to be one of the few who can
tell where the prices are headed, and the place
they will reach about 80% of the time,
and when approximately that place will be reached.” 

[Details only to subscribers]

DJIA, March 22, 2008

open chart

 DJIA, 03/22/2008

 

 

 

Chart: stockcharts.com

The prefered count for Dow shows an accelerating series of 1-2s within a nice
Elliott channel. As for now, the DJIA has reached an important crossroad: 
If indeed Minor wave 2 has ended Friday, another "surprising" downmove is
in place for the next weeks or so, since Minor wave 3 is unfolding. Third waves
are the strongest part of a five-wave structure and should hit the "professionals" 
into the bones. Remember the prefered longterm-wave count I presented longtime
ago, the high of October 9,2007 (yes, it's five month ago) counts as Primary wave B
of an expanded flat of Primary degree. Primary wave C is considered the most
devastating wave and will erase at least all the gains of 2002 to 2007. 

Alternate count: The consensus numbers were as extreme as at the October 2002 low so there is evidence to expect a low along with this pattern of trending. The low came in on 150 calendar days from high, 90 to 99 days from high (a normal time period for a thrust down in a bear trend) and 45 calendar days and 135 points down from high. All indicating a possible low of some consequence. [Details only to subscribers]

 

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 17,2008
(posted Sept 18, 2008

 

 

Here is a classic example of the validation of Fibo Fanlines:
From the high of 9/12/2008 the market declined within the outer boundary lines of the three Fibo Fanlines. Wave a for example shot up to the important falling 1x1 and bounced back.Then wave c cut through this line and ended below the 1x2 not even touching it. Again,the ensuing fall was spectacular but fizzled along the 1x1. Yesterday's low halted again on the 1x1. [Details only to subscribers]

 

S&P 500 Index daily, Sept 17, 2008

posted Sept 18, 2008  

 

 

S&P 500 Index daily, Sept 16, 2008

posted Sept 17, 2008  

 

 

Mid line touched exactly ! The 14-day RSI displays a bullish
divergence and there is one EW count that could be interpreted
as a high probability, but I have to say, it is just that, a probability.
Support & resistance are definded by the ML channel. 
[Details only to subscribers]

 

 

 

S&P 500 Index daily

[from the weekly Update, Sept 13, 2008]

posted Sept 16, 2008  

 

3rd Wave Next
© ELLIOTT today, September 13,2008

 

 

 

 

 

Dow Industrials Take a 504.48 Dive 

Stock prices fell, derivatives markets froze and investors flocked to government bonds as traders and investors struggled with the end of two Wall Street giants. The Dow suffered its biggest percentage drop in more than six years. WSJ, Sept 16,2008

 

---

Week of  Sept 8 ,2008 - Sept 12,2008

 

Orderly Decline

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 11,2008
(posted Sept 12, 2008

 

 

Five waves down complete. 

 

 

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 10,2008
(posted Sept 11, 2008

on mouse over, please see outcome!!!

 

 

This is a graph of the last 10min bar chart of the S&P 500 Index. As you can see, the market declined impulsively, meaning the market is tracing out a five-wave pattern to the downside. It shows also that the market travelled within a parallel channel originally discovered by Ralph N. Elliott some 70 years ago ! Here is the point of discussion: The herding impulse,rather than the rational neocortex, drives the decisions of most financial market participants.Whatever certain individuals may decide rationally, such decisions are diverse, and the herding impulse is ubiquitos. Thus, in the aggregate, individual rational decisions tend to cancel out, leaving herding impulses to determine the market's overall trend. [Details only to subscribers]

 

 

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 9,2008
(posted Sept 10, 2008

 

 

5 Waves down - 3 waves up ! And - an important Fibonacci retracement level.
The sentence above is pure Elliott !

Here we are! Lehmann !!
WSJ says, "Shares of Lehman, which is heavily exposed to troubled real-estate investments, have been under pressure for months and were down about 80% this year before Tuesday's drop." 

Blame it to Lehmann ?! - And what about the sentence "have been under pressure for months" ???

[Details only to subscribers]

 

 

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 8,2008
(posted Sept 9, 2008

 

 

Trading above the rising 1x1 Fibo Fanline (10min chart).
But - we have a small five-wave down and a three-wave up!
Any move below 1249 should be trigger another wave down. 

[Details only to subscribers]

 

---

 

S&P 500 Index, daily, Sept 4, 2008

 

345 Point Decline !!!

 

 

What really counts IS THE MARKET and NOTHING BUT THE MARKET. The market 
displayed two major signals well in advance of what lays ahead (to be sure, only for
those who CAN read the market correctly !): An outside-day on Sept. 3, 2008 and the 
failure to reach or exceed the falling 1x1 Gann Fanline. I wrote on Sept 3, 2008:
"The fact, that the recovery stopped right at the falling 1x1 causes me to
spell out danger ahead. Additionally, the market formed an outside day!"



Anleger in Panik

Der Dax im freien Fall: Die massiven Kursverluste an der Wall Street und in Asien haben die deutschen Standardwerte schwer in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. FTD, Sept 5,2008



Börsenpanik erfasst Asien

Die Märkte in Fernost präsentieren sich schwach: Händler machen die anhaltende Sorge vor einem weltweiten Konjunkturabschwung verantwortlich. FTD, Sept 5, 2008

 

 

S&P 500 Index, daily, Sept 3, 2008

"The Importance of the 1x1 Gann-Line"

 

 

The fact, that the recovery stopped right at the falling 1x1 causes me to
spell out danger ahead. Additionally, the market formed an outside day!

 

 

S&P 500, 10min, Sept 2,2008
(posted Sept 3, 2008

 

 

Countertrend rally.Some would say "rellief." Possible targets are 1280, 1290 eventually 1295.

 

---

 

Week of  Aug 25 ,2008 - Aug 29,2008

S&P 500, 10min, Aug 29,2008
(posted Aug 30, 2008

 

 

on mouse over please see chart with ML Channel

 

---

---

 

 

Week of  Aug 11 ,2008 - Aug 15,2008

 

GOLD
4th Wave Support, Elltoday, May 5, 2008 
posted August 16, 2008

on mouse over, see chart of Aug 16, 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chart: stockcharts.com

 

From the WeeklyUPdate, May 5, 2008:

"Last week we identified a 50% retracement, common market behavior. 
After reaching $956,20 gold dropped sharply down and signaled the onset
of a third wave down, alternately labeled as wave c of an a-b-c correction.
A reasonable target may lay in the area of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case at the apex of the triangle fourth wave at about $800." 

 

 

---

 

 

 

 

DJIA daily - ML Channel 
© ELLIOTT today, July 26, 2008

on mouse over plaese see DJIA - Line Chart 

 

 

On mouse over please see DJIA Line chart & Elliott Wave labeling plus an Alternate count. The alternate count is very important, because the Dow formed two legs down with almost the same length in percentage terms. 

 

---

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S&P 500, 10min, July  8,2008 & July 9,2008

S&P 500, 10min, July  8,2008
© ELLIOTT today, July 12, 2008

on mouse over please see chart July 9,2008

 

ELLIOTT today, July 8, 2008: "Holding above the 1x1 Fibo fanline, but the structure looks like a three." 

 

Elliott Wave Principles explains: 

Corrective Waves

The single most important rule that can be gleaned from a study of the various corrective patterns is that corrections can never be fives. Only impulse waves can be fives. In other words, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it. [Elliott Wave Principle, Frost & Prechter,1990, p.34]

"Motive waves do not always point upward, and corrective waves do not always point downward." (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics, Robert R.Prechter, 1999. p.26-27.)

 

The chart of July 9, 2008 shows quite clearly the "three wave advance" labeled a-b-c.  

© ELLIOTT today, July 12, 2008

---

 

It's official: Dow, Nasdaq Enter Bear Market After a Late Selloff Seizes Stocks 

...The Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoyed brief rallies in morning trading
but ended down by 166.75 points at 11215.51, down 20.8% from its record 
close in October. Traditionally, a fall of 20% from a high is considered the definition of a bear market." WSJ, July 2,2008

 

and here is the Dow...

on mouse over see chart of December 8,2007

 

 

ELLIOTT today, from the WeeklyUpdate of Dec 8,2007

"The overall pattern indicates the NASDAQ Composite has topped !! Technology stocks are not the best place to be! For traders, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement comes in at 2737. That's the number to watch ! Make no mistake about it - the extreme oversold condition shown by the ROC (Rate of Change) Indicator at the bottom does mean simply the opposite: the kick-off for the bear!

 

 

---

 

S&P 500, 10min, June 16,2008
(posted June 17,2008)

 

On Mouse Over See The Outcome

 

 

Storm Ahead!

Powerful Elliott pattern complete ! Sharp reversal to the downside !

---

The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2008 is yours free when you take 30 seconds to join Club EWI, also FREE. Goto Elliott Wave International

 

 

Elliott Wave Principle

Key To Stock Market Profits by Frost & Prechter 
(Expanded Edition1990)

Elliott Wave Principle >>>

 

 

The ELLIOTT today  WeeklyUPdate [EFA-0108]

This service utilizes in-depth studies of Elliott Wave fractal patterns & Fibonacci analysis, combined with a study of 
market sentiment measures. Our focus is on identifying high probability price forecasts, in an unbiased and easy to follow format. 

Let’s let the forecasts speak for themselves. TracRecord>>>

Please see INFO>>>

For more information: 
mail to : khl618@yahoo.com

 

---

© ELLIOTT today, July 12, 2008

and the Dow + Forecast

 

 

 

Alternate count showing the advance from October 2002 to October 2007 as a three-wave structure ultimately labeled [a]-[b]-[c] of Primary degree completing Cycle wave B. 

The latest rise, contrary to how it has been embraced, has in fact strenghtened the case that the high, say top, is near ! In fact last week's leap appears to be an institutional panic at the top of a bear market rally. Normally, corrective patterns retrace approximately 38.2%, 50% or 61.8% of prior preceding impulse waves. In July, technical evidence supported the case that the top is in, but the market traced out what looked like a three-wave decline, which is corrective in character, suggesting that another leg to the upside will follow. And it did.. To be cautious does not mean I am bearish all over, but the aftermath of 2000 or 2001 proofed me right ! How many people lost their fortune, some for their lifetime. How many  mutual funds closed down leaving the public with huge losses? 

As of Friday, all major indexes made new highs exceding the high of July 2007. So what? The NASDAQ Composite Index for example trades well behind its alltime-high of March 2000 and even did not reach the 50% percent retracement. 

There are 11 corrective wave patterns, and any one of them may be developing from the high. Nevertheless, forecasting its shape is not that difficult. It merely requires staying within the boundaries of what we know by the Wave Prinicple not what we hope or what we read into it. What we know is that this bear market will either be or begin with an A-B-C pattern, and to date, a satisfactory pattern of this type can only be an alternate. The actual situation today, of course, is much more bearish than in 1930 or 1938 from a long term perspective because the 1980s bull market completed five waves up from 1932 and probably from the late 1700s. 

There is a compelling cluster of Fibonacci relationships which converge in the Dow right now. The double zigzag count shown in chart 1 as the alternate count, is still valid and clearly shows that the market reached the rising 1x1 Fibo fanline for the second time. The Elliott parallel trend channel also shows the market has reached its limit. You may have observed, that the rise from 2002 to 2007 mirrors the rise from 1982 to 1987, which lasted 1813 days or 60 months. On October 10, 2007 the DJIA will match 1800 (calender-) days since October 10,2002. The exact day to the 1987s example would be October 23, 2007. 

---

 

 

 

 

No Recession, But 
Wed Dec 26, 

For 2008, the economic outlook is Topic No. 1 for almost all investors. Stock prices and bond 
yields already reflect recession worries, but an actual downturn would hit portfolios hard. To 
help get a handle on what to expect, BusinessWeek asked 54 forecast ers in our annual outlook 
survey for their views on everything from housing and the credit crunch to Fed policy and global 
growth. (Click here for full survey results.) 

The bottom line looks like this: The economists project, on average, that the economy will grow
2.1% from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the end of 2008, vs. 2.6% in 2007. Only two of the 
forecasters expect a recession, 

 

NASDAQ Comp, daily

© ELLIOTT today, December 12, 2007 

 

From the WeeklyUpdate of Dec 8,2007

"The overall pattern indicates the NASDAQ Composite has topped !! Technology stocks are not the best place to be! For traders, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement comes in at 2737. That's the number to watch ! Make no mistake about it - the extreme oversold condition shown by the ROC (Rate of Change) Indicator at the bottom does mean simply the opposite: the kick-off for the bear!"

Now that was the commentary of last week's issue. At Friday's high the NASDAQ Comp reached 2709.10.  I think the market has one more leg up left and there is good chance to reach the 2737s as forecasted on December 1,2007.

In time, yesterday was day no.38 since the high of October 31,2007. This time frame in fact is very important, because the secondary highs (i.e., B-waves or waves 2) in 1929 and 1987 both had 38 days resp. 37 days time span from the top!

 

S&P 500 Index, 10min, Dec 11,2007

Free fall after Fed cut
Stocks tank after Fed cuts rates by a quarter point, rather than the half some had hoped. Dour comments on the economy factor in too. CNN money, Dec 12,2007

 

If you're familiar with the Elliott Wave Principle, you know what I'm getting at. Investor sentiment has a profound influence on the markets. In investing, there are very few blanket answers. 

As Bob Prechter once put it, investing is not physics: the "if, then" approach does not apply here. More often than not, the emotional aspect of investing completely takes over the rational one – and then we see stocks that should be crashing rally instead, and vice versa.

From the WeeklyUpdate, March 10,2007

Dr. Andrew pointed out, that Median lines, which are nearly horizontal, were almost always penetrated. That did not happened at last occurrence in June/July 2006. ML-2 shown on the chart displays another picture showing that the recent sell-off touched the ML-2 drawn from the Ocober 2005 low. Likewise, the upper channel line of ML-2 "catched" the high of 1462 almost to the minute, while the market did not reach the Fibo-Fanline 1x1. 

Key for the market seems to be the 1350 level which in turn provides support by the ML-1 and the lower channel line of ML-2. That point is also the 50% retracement level of the advance from June/July 2006 to the recent high. A break of that level virtually confirms the that Cycle wave C to the downside is underway. The next level of importance is marked by the rising 2x1 Fibo-Fanline at 1310-1300. The lower ML-1 channel line points to below 1250, once the ML-1 is decisively broken to the downside. 

 

From the WeeklyUpdate, August 25,2007

DJIA, August 25,2007 
© ELLIOTT today, August 25, 2007 

 

 

This is an alternate labeling of the DJIA. This scenario shows the probability of another attempt to the upside in Intermediate wave (5) of Primary wave [5] or Cycle wave B. The advance is well contained within an Elliott parallel trendchannel and could lift the market even above the mid-14,000s. Friday's intraday high of 13,381 came within 66 points to the important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 13,447. That's the number to watch. A strong move above this level suggests the bullish scenario outlined by the alternate count could well be in force.

 

According to Investors Intelligence, investment advisors are furiously jumping on board the rally. Since August 21,2007, the percentage of bulls spiked from 40.6 to 55.6, which is higher than its level at the July 17 peak. "The Federal Reserve has driven most stock market bears into hibernation." Another commentator ,who is in his late 60s, said stocks were the best bargain of his lifetime. How he could be his age and not recall 1974, 1982, 1994 and 2003 is 
a mystery. 

So due to several different counts for the major U.S. markets, I advise caution all the way into October 2007. Speaking of mood, B-waves or 2nd waves often produce more enthuasism than the former high/top. The same thing happened in October 1987 with regard to mood. Stay tuned. 

 

...and the NASD

ELLIOTT today, Oct 13,2007:

The message was clear: 

"Within the current list of clues in the wave structure, momentum indicators and sentiment measures the NASDAQ Composite is about to top out NOW or has already.  It's screaming SELL !" ELLtoday, Oct 13,2007 

Within the current list of clues in the wave structure, momentum indicators and sentiment measures the NASDAQ Composite is about to top out NOW or has already. It's screaming SELL ! Although some may react as if "wolf" has been cried once too often, multiple "sell" signals from reliable indicators are not an objective defensible reason to ignore them. In fact, the opposite is true. Any market which has continued to rally while producing numerous signs of topping behavior is most likely setting up for a big decline. 

Why? The pattern in the NASDAQ Composite index recently traced out what looks like an expanding diagonal triangle for wave 5 of (c) of [B]. According to the textbook description the next move will be a big one, say -800 points at minimum !! In percentage terms, that is a decline of -28%. 

Call it a CRASH ?! Please notice the nice Elliott parallel channel containing waves (a)-(b) and (c). 

 

 

A Word About Our Subscription Services

How many times have you heard a financial news reporter tell you the market rose or fell because of some particular news item? 

Advances and declines are the result of processes, not events. The problem with news is that it is, well, news. That means either it's happening now or it already happened. Trading on news is a frustrating game, especially if the market doesn't move in the direction that the news might imply. 

But, what if you could anticipate what the market is likely to do, and, better still, be prepared ahead of time with alternative trading strategies? 

Our subscriptions combine the high-probability forecasting power of Elliott Wave Analysis along with key measures of market sentiment to help you trade effectively and manage your risk. Whether you subscribe to our  Weekly Update or SP500 TradingDESK (SPTD-07)  you get our independent, unbiased analysis of  what lies ahead. 

ELLIOTT today's 

Intraday- Analysis & Forecast....(SPTD-08)

(SPX, 10min. chart, posted daily before the opening bell))

SPTD-08.................$400 (quarterly/3 months)

 

 

Just IN-TIME Information

They are updated three times a trading day.

PLUS special entry & exit points inclusive .

The ONLINE-subscriber Area is accessible at any time, 24 hours a day.

Online-subscriber receive a personal access code that allows quick and easy entry into our state-of-the-art ONLINE system.

Each message plays a clear fidelity and the length of the message is between three and five minutes. 

All services utilize in-depth studies of Elliott Wave fractal patterns 
& Fibonacci analysis, combined with a study of market sentiment measures. Our focus is on identifying high probability price forecasts,
in an unbiased and easy to follow format. 

We won’t say we’ve been right the whole way – no market timing method can be 100% accurate all the time. But  we feel comfortable demonstrating how Elliott wave analysis has allowed our subscribers to time the Up&Downs in the markets  with startling accuracy. 

Let’s let the forecasts speak for themselves. Examples>>>

 

What Visitors have to say:

 

I just recently discovered your website, I like your clearly labelled charts. I haven't been able to find any sites with Elliott wave charts that even come close to yours! Your SPX charts have been a great reference to me for clearing up the smaller details.
Best Regards, Brad, Feb 5, 2007

BTW, you guys are still da best wavy-gravy on da net - bar none! 
And you can quote me on that!! 
scamman, Jan 26, 2007, clearstation.etrade.com

 

For more information: 
mail to : khl618@yahoo.com

or goto Info>>>

Elliott Wave Principle

Key To Stock Market Profits by Frost & Prechter 
(Expanded Edition1990)

Elliott Wave Principle >>>

Disclaimer

None of these stocks are buy or sell recommendations. There is a high degree of risk in trading. This chart  contains information that we reserve for subscribers. Choose a subscription that's right for you. 

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been exted, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, or certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or loses similar to those shown. Performance results listed below represent simulated results and not the results of an actual account. None of these stocks are buy or sell recommendations. There is a high degree of risk in trading.

All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.No offer or solication to buy or sell securities, securities derivative or products of any kind, or any type of trading or investment advice,recommendation or strategy,is made, given or in any manner endorsed by ELLIOTT today  or any of its affiliates. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no gurantee of futures trading performance or success. Active trading is generally not appropriate for someone of limited resources, limited investment or trading experience, or low-risk tolerance, or who is not willing to risk capital. There is risk of loss in futures trading .

The material is ONLY PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES AND PAPER TRADING. The recommendations are for paper trading to develop your skills for real time trading. If you can make profits in papeer trading, and wish to trade real time with real money and need assistance, then seek help from a qualified financial advisor. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

The material does not recommend or otherwise imply that any trading position be taken, which is, and only can be initiating trader's decision and responsibility. I am not a registered financial advisor - and cannot give such advice.

The charts, forecasts, and information are for educational purposes to demonstrate the predictive success of this type of market analysis. As such, it is primarily a teaching tool. Any signals given to buy or sell are for demonstration of the method and are NOT trading instructions or any sort. If you do not agree to these terms then do not accept and cancel this instruction tool. The author does not take any on responsibility for your trading success or failure. Payment of fees acknowledges that you have accepted and understand these terms. This information is not available free. If you have obtained this without payment, you have an illegal copy and are an illegal user. The information on this report is copyright.