The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how markets behave. The description reveals that mass investor psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific patterns in price movement. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
ELLIOTT today
S&P 500
TradingDESK
2010
From Elliottwave Intl.
The Euro: A Lesson In Elliott Wave Analysis >>>
By Nico Isaac, Mon, 29 Mar 2010
The Elliott Wave Theorist, Dezember 2009
On November 12, 1999, when the orthodox top of the Grand Supercycle degree uptrend was only
two months away, President Clinton signed a bill, passed by Congress at the behest of bankers,
to repeal the Glass-Steagal act of 1934. This change allowed commercial banks once again to
engage in investment banking, a practice that earlier legislators blamed for the 1929 crash and
the ensuing depression. This "Financial Services Modernization Act" act freed bankers to use
their depositor's masses of funds to provide leverage to speculators on a scale never before
imagined and to pay themselves huge fees for the service, which in turn motivated them to
provide more credit. Now, Bloomberg (11/12) reports that House Rep. Paul Kanjorski is
introducing legislation that will (1) re-impose the restrictions of the Glass-Steagal Act and (2)
give the Secretary of the Treasury dictatorial power "to force the major (financial) institutions
to reduce their size of restrict the scope of their activities," as the Sectrary himself put it in
testimony. So Congress which accelerated the inflationary mess by repealing the Glass-Steagall
Act is now going to accelerate deflationary forces by shutting down the easy-credit mills that it
jolted into being just a single decade ago.Yet another bill - this one more cute than draconian - is working its way through Congress:
"The House voted Wednesday to extend $31 billion in popular tax breaks, including an income
tax deduction for sales and property taxes, to be financed with a tax increase on investment
fund managers and a crackdown on international tax havens cheat." (AP, 12/10). The lure of
riches through managing investment funds , and by speculating in financial markets with money
made available through tax evasion, were two of the motors of the speculative binge. Is it not clear,
even in small ways, how social mood is changing , how politicians are experssing t, and how it is
deflationary?
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ELLIOTT today
S&P 500
TradingDESK 2010
Socionomics and the Sudden Wave of Violence
This essay by Mark Galasiewski originally appeared
in The Elliott Wave Theorist in August-September 2006.A little over two months ago, the stock markets of the world were hitting multi-year highs.
Several Middle Eastern stock markets had already fallen by double digits—some by more than
50%—but the world outside of Iraq was relatively quiet and peaceful. Then in early May the major
world indexes turned down. That minor drop reflects a downturn in social mood within a larger
bear market of Grand Supercycle degree. This change has generated an explosion in violent
conflicts worldwide. Article>>>
DIW-Chef Zimmermann
Top-Ökonom wettert gegen seine Kollegen
Donnerstag 15.10.2009
ddp Klaus Zimmermann, Präsident des DIW Die Wirtschaft wächst 2010, sagen die amtlich bestellten
Forscher. Ökonom Zimmermann erklärt: Warum manche Prognosen Quatsch sind – und die Lage prekär
bleibt. Klaus F. Zimmermann ist Chef vom Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) in Berlin und einer
der führenden Ökonomen Deutschlands. Im vergangenen Jahr sorgte er für Aufsehen, als er forderte,
seine Zunft solle für eine gewisse Zeit auf Prognosen verzichten. focus.de, 28.Juli 2010
S&P 500,daily
© ELLIOTT today, July 28, 2010
Chart: quote.comML and Fiboancci Fanlines
This is an update of the daily chart of July 17, 2010 (see below). Here I combinded
the Median Line technique (ML-1) with Fibonacci fanlines. The chart shows how
useful these two technical market tools can be:just as the market reached the
falling 1x1 exactly the market turned on a dime and traded lower.
Beige Book drückt Stimmung an der Wall Street
Dem Aufschwung in den USA geht nach Ansicht der Notenbank Fed die Puste aus.
Die Kurse fallen deshalb - trotz guter Unternehmenszahlen. ftd.de, 29.Juli 2010
Corporate Earnings
As I write this paragraph, today's newspaper sport this headline in the business section: "Determining What Will Move Market Not Difficult - But Forecasting Its Direction Is Harder." The "easy" part is no surprise, since virtually everyone in finance agrees: "Earnings are the primary sources of stock price movement, which accounts for Wall Street's preoccupation with next month's earnings reports..."
Is the indicator valid? Are stocks driven by corporate earnings?
In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Goldman Sachs's Barrie Wigmore, who found that "only 35% of stock price growth [in the 1980s] can be contributed to earnings and interest rates." Wigmore concludes that all the rest is due simply to changing social attitudes toward holding stocks. (Actually all of it is due to changing social attitudes, and earnings are their product.) Sys the Journal, "[This] may have just blown a hole through this most cherished of Wall Street convictions." This study shows even in retrospect, the "fundamentals" that most analysts are relying upon have little relationship to stock price movement. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter)
S&P 500,10min.
© ELLIOTT today, July 27, 2010
Chart: quote.com
Consumer Confidence Sinks to 50.4, a 5-Month Low;
Home Prices Rise; Case-Shiller a Very Lagging Price Indicator
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/, July 28,2010
Elliott Wave Analysis see July 23,2010
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FOCUS-Titel (Video), 24.Juli 2010
Ja, der Aufschwung ist da!
..das steckt hinter dem neuen Wirtschaftswunder
Nur ein paar Kleinigkeiten
Die Einkaufsmanagerumfragen in Europa fallen großartig aus und verzücken die Anleger.
Aber wieso sind die EU-Industriebestellungen dann auf dem Niveau von 2005 - und
17 Prozent unter der alten Spitze? ftd.de, 24.Juli 2010
20-Jahres-Rekord bei Geschäftsklima
Deutsche Wirtschaft feiert rasanten Aufschwung
Das hat es seit 20 Jahren nicht mehr gegeben: Der Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex ist im Juli um mehr als
vier Punkte gestiegen. Die Stimmung in den Unternehmen verbessert sich drastisch -
"die deutsche Wirtschaft ist wieder in Partylaune", sagt Institutschef Hans-Werner Sinn.
spiegel.de, 23.Juli 2010
S&P 500,10min.
© ELLIOTT today, July 23, 2010
Chart: quote.comThe market decided to edge higher and closed above the 1100 level. A c-wave would be
1.618 times the length of wave a at 1117.
S&P 500,10min.
© ELLIOTT today, July 22, 2010
Chart: quote.comElliott Wave Analysis, S&P 500, 10min.
The market did what it has to do: The five-wave pattern up from the low
of July 20, followed by a three-wave structure to 1065 the next day, the
market surged up in wave (c) to 1098 and thereby bringing the length of
the two upward legs to equality. A classic example of a zigzag correction.
23 July 2010, bbc.co.uk
Venezuela leader Hugo Chavez severs ties with Colombia
23. Juli 2010, 07:21, NZZ Online
Rekordkälte in Peru
Acht Grad Celsius in Lima gemessen – Kältester Tag seit 46 Jahren
S&P 500,10min.
© ELLIOTT today, July 21, 2010
Chart: quote.com
Bernanke schickt Wall Street auf Talfahrt
ftd.de, 22.Juli 2010My Elliott wave analysis yesterday turned out to be correct: the market
completed a five-wave advance and the following correction erased
71.1.% of the previous advance. According to ftd.de, Bernanke was
the reason for the decline, but that statement is not true.
Elliott Wave analysis have it right, before the fact, again.
S&P 500,10min.
© ELLIOTT today, July 20, 2010
Chart: quote.comOn July 17, ELLtoday said:
"The market stalled at 1099 by reaching the ML-1 perfectly and tanked down.
The labeling of ML-1 and ML-2 provided an excellent technical tool to get an
anchor point for traders. It is quite interesting to see, how market pros, portfolio
managers and strategists (you name i t) get bullish even on interim market tops."On July 20, Robert Jay of Elliottwave.com comes out with these numbers:
"... the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey of the public reflected an extreme pessimism on July 8, in the midst of the July rally of the past two weeks. But last week's survey showed a sudden burst of enthusiasm that heralded the end of the upward push, as the AAII percentage of bulls soared from 20.94 (July 8) to 39.37 last week, a gain of nearly 18½ basis points. This burst coincided with last week's highs."
Elliott Wave Analysis:
As you can see from the labeling on the latest chart the market completed a
five-wave advance. It is possible that this advance is wave (c) of an expanded
flat and the real 5th down occurred last Friday or Monday. Alternately, this
five-advance is part of an even bigger upward correction. Either way, the
market should now undertake a correction back to the level of the 4th wave
of one lesser degree to about 1074.
S&P 500,daily
© ELLIOTT today, July 17, 2010
Chart: quote.comon mouse over see alterrnate count
Alternate count #2: It is quite possible to count the whole structure from April
to July as a "Leading Diagonal Triangle Type 2". (EWP, 1990, Frost & Prechter, p.47)
"...this pattern will be found in the A-wave position of zigzags and in the first wave
position in "fives" in very rare cases."As I said on July 13, "...A next level of importance would be the 78.6%
retracement which points to 1105."The market stalled at 1099 by reaching the ML-1 perfectly and tanked down.
The labeling of ML-1 and ML-2 provided an excellent technical tool to get an
anchor point for traders. It is quite interesting to see, how market pros, portfolio
managers and strategists (you name i t) get bullish even on interim market tops.It is very clear, what we have here is classic behavior of a bear market as
lower highs and lower lows keep on going. The position of the market
right now allows for further losses to about 1040 or on a greater scale
even much lower. I never said it would be easy but last week the market
started out positive for equities around the world as many stock market
soared into last Wednesday, July 14. Just when it looked like they would
explode to the upside, they sold off again sharply on Friday.
S&P 500,daily
© ELLIOTT today, July 13, 2010
Chart: quote.com
This chart shows an update of the 60minute chart of July 8. The blue ML-2
Midline at the that time becomes now ML-1 in red. First, the market has now
reached that Midline quite exactly and second, the market has overcome the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A next level of importance would be the 78.6%
retracement which points to 1105. For the bigger picture please see chart of
June 11,2010 that shows the Elliott labeling which is still the prefered count.
Americans in 70% Majority See More Jobless as Deficit Widens
More than 7 out of 10 Americans say the economy is mired in recession, and the country is
conflicted over how to balance concerns over joblessness and the federal budget deficit,
according to a Bloomberg National Poll. bloomberg com, July 14,2010
Retail Sales in U.S. Probably Dropped for Second Month
as Recovery Cooled bloomberg com, July 14, 2010
The Bear Market and Depression: How Close to the Bottom?
By Elliott Wave International
"People are more bearish than I have ever seen them. This has to be a bottom."
The first half of this statement may well be true for many market observers. If one has been in the market for
ess than 14 years, one has never seen people this bearish. But 14 years is a short time. What about the past
100 years of stock market history? Read more.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P 500,daily
© ELLIOTT today, July 9, 2010
Precious metals sold off sharply last week, when Gold fell
nearly $40 and Silver nearly $100 points. The European
and Asian currencies rallied sharply against the U.S. Dollar.
Isn't a weaker dollar supposed to be bullish for precious
metals?
Sunday, July 11 there will be an solar eclipse, which is often
seen as very volatile for the market.
S&P 500, 60minute
© ELLIOTT today, July 8, 2010
Chart: quote.com
Elliott Wave Analysis:
The current wave form from the low of July 1 looks like a copy
of the wave form beginning June 8. In June, the index traveled
+89 points while the current advance gained +60 points. An
equal advance, for example, points to 1100 slightly above the
ML-2. Currently the market retraced exactly 50% of the preceding
decline, a natural stopping point, too. For the possibility, the
market is tracing out a more complex pattern, an intervaning
wave (x) may occur with a setback to the ML-1 into the 1045 area.
Alternate count: Instead of counting an (a)-(b)-(c) right now, a count
of (1)-(2) i-ii-iii-iv-iv(3) is possible.
Markets See Biggest Rally Since May
The stock market staged its biggest rally since May on Wednesday, driving the
Dow Jones industrial average above 10,000, as investors rushed to buy blue-chip
shares near their lowest levels this year, and those gains continued into Asian markets
Thursday morning. New York Times, July 7,2010
S&P 500: Yesterday's outlook for July 7,2010 was wrong: the market surged ahead
and climbed to a high of 1060 in the S&P 500. With respect to the Dow, the market
surged above the widely discussed 10,000 level. Simply drawn trendlines here
on the 10minute chart of the S&P shows, the market reached the upper trendline
and whole pattern diverged, signaling a possible expanding diagonal in force.
The 1060 level was first mentioned on July 1, 2010 and ELLtoday has this to
say at the time:"By reaching the ML-2 exactly, a correction may occur
that could lift the market into the 1056-1060 area."There is a high possibility that the whole structure from the top
formed a (bullish) wedge-shaped formation. If this is correct
further rising prices will be seen. I'll show this possibility next
weekend.
S&P 500, 10minute
© ELLIOTT today, July 6, 2010
The market completed a w-x-y corrective pattern and turned down in five-waves
of small degree. Mid lines did a very good job to identify targets and ranges and
actually the trading up and down along the ML-2, which is falling, continues. The
prefered count shows another expanded flat a-b-c and signals falling prices
ahead.
Week Ahead: Stocks Oversold, but Is Fear Overdone?
2 Jul 2010, CNBC
The stock market limps into the coming week both technically and emotionally weakened. Friday's disappointing June jobs number was the latest in a series of downbeat economic reports that have some economists looking to downgrade their growth forecasts to even more sluggish levels. Stocks lost about 5 percent in the past week, and the major indices are all now negative on the year. The S&P 500 fell 54 points, or 5 percent to 1022, 16 percent from its April 23 high. Traders, meanwhile, were assessing the past week's quick drop through some key technical support levels, which they see as a forewarning of more declines to come. Yet some analysts and money managers are beginning to see value in the oversold market. "People are driven by fear. The uncertainty is huge in my view. It is overdone," said David Kotok of Cumberland Advisers. "Markets may be discounting a double dip recession. I do not believe it is coming. Slow growth, high unemployment does not feel good, but it is not shrink. It's growth and for American businesses, it is very profitable. We will see that in the earnings season that starts in a few days."
Kotok said he is now fully invested in the stock market and has been using weakness
to buy.
S&P 500, 10minute
© ELLIOTT today, July 2, 2010
2010 had worst start for stocks in nearly a decade
USAtoday, July 1,2010Mid lines and EWP tell the story: The three-wave structures off the low are considered
small correction within a larger downtrend. Most of the major indexes are now well beneath
the "flash crash" low of May 6, dispelling the myth that the decline was a freak accident.
Optimism is way to high as the article of 2 Jul 2010, CNBC reveals.
S&P 500, daily
© ELLIOTT today, July 1, 2010
Chart: quote.comUpdate from June 11,2010 (also see chart of June 25, June 26).
Despite the relatively small loss at the closing bell, the market was down yesterday
20 points before a recovery set in. The DJIA was down -154 points and at the end
of the trading day it was only down -41.49 points.For those who read only the closing numbers, not much happened, but for technicians,
especially EW-analysts, the market either finished Minuette wave i or alternately to my
count shown on the chart, Minute wave (i).
DJIA, daily
© ELLIOTT today, June 26, 2010
Chart: quote.comDJIA daily:
This chart again displays the value of the Fibonacci fanlines. As the chart reveals,
the three fanlines both rising or falling gave an early warning of an end of a trend.
This has happened during the uptrend since February 2010 as the market travelled
above the steeper rising 2x1 and in April 2010 broke that line notwithstanding
further upmoves until April 26. The downtrending 1x1 drawn from that top tried a
comback to the line on May 13, 2010 and failed.By the way, the 55-day range from the top to the secondary top
"Spanien verzückt die Wall Street"
is just like the same as of August 25,1987 to October 19,1987.
On the same day, the German Handelsblatt says,
Handelsblatt de. 13.Mai 2010.Mehr Argumente für Aktien
boerse-online.de, 28.4.2010
S&P 500, 10min.
© ELLIOTT today, June 23, 2010
Before the fact !!
"50% will be reached at 1129.5.." (ELLtoday, June 15, 2010)The following excerpt is from the article, "Science Based" Market Forecasting:
Is There Such a Thing?
Scientific Study Confirms the Wave Principle's Structure in the Stock Market
By Editorial Staff, Wed, 05 May 2010Let's say you're highly interested in the Wave Principle but haven't had time to study the academic writings about this vital subject. This 1996 quotation from France's Journal of Physics is offered with you in mind.
"A lot of effort has been developed in finance both by academic and trading institutions and more recently by physicists. . . to analyze past data to get information on the future. The 'Elliott wave' technique is probably the most famous in this field. We speculate that the 'Elliott waves'. . .could be a signature of an underlying critical structure of the stock market."
"Stock Market Crashes, Precursors and Replicas," quoted in the Elliott Wave Theorist, August 1999.
The stock market is not the only place the above-mentioned "signature" appears. Consider "branching fractals" such as blood vessels or trees: a small tree branch looks like an approximate replica of a big branch, and the big branch looks similar in form to the entire tree. Is the branching of trees, blood vessels, or river tributaries random?
Bob Prechter describes another study, which found that a particular branching fractal (DLA cluster) has the same mathematical sequence (Fibonacci) "in the same place that R.N. Elliott found the Fibonacci sequence in the Wave Principle: in the increasing numbers of subdivisions as the phenomenon progress." (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, p. 66.)
The Wave Principle reflects an order found in nature itself. When you look at a stock market price chart, you are looking at a fractal.Elliott wave analysis is based on pattern recognition. Markets are patterned, not random, postulates the Wave Principle; once you know where you are in the pattern, you can forecast what likely comes next.
Wave analysis can be especially effective at markets' turning points. Sometimes a wave pattern has to play out completely before a turning point can be identified. The "playing out" part can happen gradually or quickly. A cloudy sky becomes clear, visibility improves... and a key market juncture is identified. Your patience is
rewarded.
"Almost always, subsequent moves will clarify the status of previous waves by revealing their position in the pattern of the next higher degree. When subsequent
waves clarify the picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%."
-- Frost & Prechter, "Elliott Wave Principle -- Key to Market Behavior," p. 88.Excerpt from :
Identifying Markets' Turning Points
Sometimes a pattern has to play out before a turning point can be identified.
By Editorial Staff, Mon, 29 Mar 2010
On June 21, 2010, the market topped at 1131,23 and so far declined to 1085,31, a loss of 45.92 points or -4%.On June 21, 2010, Elltoday had this to say:
"The warning of a sudden reversal ("caution is advised..", ELLtoday, June 18), came
well before the fact.
On June 22,2010, the media were outright bullish, as the headline says,
"Kursrally - China-Phantasie beflügelt deutsche Aktien"
manager-magazin de., 22.Juni 2010
As the Fibonacci fanlines reveal, the decline occurred in orderly fashion all
along the falling 1x1 line. The market tried seven times to move above that
line but always failed and traded lower. A close look at the market behavior
of the last two hours of trading shows, the market moved above the 1x1 again,
but failed at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P 500, 30min.
© ELLIOTT today, June 12, 2010on mouse over see daily chart & Fibonacci Fanlines !
Chart: quote.comAs said, the flat correction highly likely ended yesterday with a move up to 1106, exactly the high
of June 3,2010. Small five-waves down warn of more to come to the downside.
Read the following from the wsj.com (..what steps they might take it the recovery surprisingly
falters or if the inflation rate falls much more...!!)
Fed Weighs Growth Risks
Federal Reserve officials are beginning to debate
quietly what steps they might take if the recovery
surprisingly falters or if the inflation rate falls much
more. wsj com, June 14, 2010
S&P 500, daily
© ELLIOTT today, June 11, 2010
Chart: quote.com
The alternate count shown on June 8,2010 now becomes the prefered count. On a daily chart,
it looks like the market is tracing out a flat-correction for Minor wave 2 with wave (c) in its final
subdivisions. In the past, prices stalled at the ML-1 and reversed down. A move into the mid 1100s
is quite possible, but keep in mind the market can turn on a dime.
Yesterday's analysis regarding
the 10minute chart of the S&P is still quite possible since the intraday high yesterday was 1092
slightly touching the ML shown yesterday.
S&P 500, 30min.
© ELLIOTT today, June 8, 2010
Chart: quote.comThe 30minute chart however leaves open another possibility.
By this count it is quite possible that the market will be
surprising the "bears" and has started a countertrend-move
that will bring the market back to the 1100s. (see Alternate count)
S&P 500, 30min.
© ELLIOTT today, June 7, 2010
Chart: quote.comFive waves down may be complete or nearly so. The waves are contaiend
within an Elliott parallel channel. The wave 1low of April 25 could be touched
or even breeched. The length of wave v is 1.618 times the length of wave 1 at
1046.At that point, waves i and wave v will be 0.618 of wave iii. Just a possibility.
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G-20-Verhandlungen
Industrieländer scheitern mit globalem Banken-Rettungsfonds
Herbe Niederlage für Deutschland und die EU-Kommission: Bei einem G-20-Treffen wurde der Vorschlag
einer globalen Bankenabgabe abgeschmettert. Mit dem Geld sollte ein weltweiter Notfonds für pleitebedrohte
Geldhäuser finanziert werden - als Vorsorge gegen kommende Finanz-Crashs.
spiegel de., 5.Juni 2010
S&P 500,
daily
© ELLIOTT today, June 5, 2010
Chart: quote.com
Elliott Wave Analysis
Using closing prices, the S&P 500 Index Primary wave [1] declined -882 points (1565-683) or 56.35%.
Primary wave [2] from 683 to 1212 gained 529 points and the ratio is 59.97%. Using extreme prices,
(High/Low) the ratio is 60.83%, which is within 1% the famous Fibonacci ratio 61.8%. Aside these
numbers, much more important is the wave structure. As I see it, from October 2009 to April 2010 the
market traced out a rather rare expanding diagonal top with an expanding diagonal triangle in wave 5
of (y) of [2]. The following decline wiped out nearly all of the gains since October 2009 and held slightly
above the lower trendline of the big ending pattern. This is Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3]
to the downside. As outlined before, the unusual big retracement in Intermediate wave (2) follows the
description of The Elliott Wave Principle, as extended 5th waves will be fully retraced.
Midlines are constructed by identifying the last three turning points and cut the last
wave into half.
Intermediate wave (2) surged above ML-2 for three days and the following wave down lost -31 points and
kicked-off Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (3) down. Quite the same behavior occurred at the recent high,
as Minor wave 2 reached a new "recovery" high at 1106 by slightly penetrating the ML-1. The next day the
market tanked loosing -38 points. June 4 was a very interesting date, since the lower channel line of ML-2
(not shown) touched exactly the 1100-level as the market opened at 1098, day's high,
too.
The lower channel line of ML-1 touches the 1000 level in the next week or so. But that
level, by all means,
will not be a stopping point for the market. In fact, Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave (3)
of Primary wave [3]
will go down in history as the market will break all records, the world has ever seen.
S&P 500, 30min.
© ELLIOTT today, June 4, 2010
Dow Falls 323.31, Ends Week Below 10000
wsj com, June 5, 2010
Chart: quote.com
ELLtoday, June 3,2010, posted June 4,2010:
"The upmove from the low of June 1 cuts the wave structure into a clear three-wave pattern,
indicating that a corrective wave pattern emerged."
Elliott Wave Analysis
So far, the "cautions" forecast came to pass and the market tanked. If you're watching the media's commentary to that event, you may have realizied that most of them showing some concern about what happened. In short, they were "surprised." Readers of this website were not surprised, in fact the wave count longtime ago called for the biggest downwave to come. Question has not been if..., but when.
Evidence is high that yesterday's market action was the beginnung of a third wave down, actually, Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave (3). Actually the "correction" formed seven legs, a double zigzag with wave (x) probably a contracting triangle. Second waves often are more complex and of today, the market has formed only three waves down. We have to wait and see, whether
the market traces out another leg down to name it an impulse wave.
Optimism is running high...
"Even with the disappointing jobs report today, it remains clear that the recovery here is continuing," Schweitzer said. "There's a question of sustainability, but for the short term, it's very much in place." marketwatch.com, June 5,2010
Stocks surge on recovery hopes msn.com, May 4, 2010
S&P 500, 10min.
© ELLIOTT today, May 28,2010
Chart: quote.com
Alternate: (i) (ii) i
S&P 500, 60min.
© ELLIOTT today, May 25,2010
For the description of second waves please see >>>
How Will Investors View The Start of The Bear Market?
As a hint, polls conducted by brokerage firms reveal that during the 9% drop in stocks early 1994,
public buyers outnumbered sellers by more than two to one. Read more>>>
Related articles:
Elliott Wave Principle >>>
Change - Echo Bubble >>>
Fibonacci >>>
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S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, May 7,2010
Chart: quote.com
Elliott Wave Analysis:
Wave a of the triangle retraced 47% of the preceding decline,
while wave b fell -44 points or 0.618 the length of wave a. Wave c
gained +35 points which is exactly 47% of wave b and wave d
declined -26 points or 0.618 of wave b.There is more: A 0.382 retracement of waves (i) throught iii would
be reached at 1,124, which is 2 points from the end of the triangle,
calculated above. And the market only trades in wave iv of iii of (iii).Waves (iv) and (v) of Minor wave 1 have to follow, yet.
DAX - Third Wave Down
(c) ELLIOTT today, 05/07/2010
S&P Chart of March 15, 2010
DJIA vom Januar 5,2008
© ELLIOTT today
Change - Echo Bubble
"Von woher soll denn eine Krise kommen?" >>>
S&P 500, 10 Min.
© ELLIOTT today, May 6,2010
ELLtoday, May 5,2010:
"Since waves (ii) and wave ii both traced out simple zigzag pattern, wave iv should form a more complex pattern and ultimately leads to another sell-off down."
Chart: quote.com
Elliott Wave Analysis:
Due to the lacking alternation of waves two and four I decided to
post a 60minute-chart today. Since waves (ii) and wave ii both
traced out simple zigzag pattern, wave iv should form a more
complex pattern and ultimately leads to another sell-off down.
Now consider this: I think the market trades in Minor wave 1 of
Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down, which means,
the worst has yet to come.
Market sentiment remains very bullish as the article from May 2 in a German newspaper reflects.
Late April 2010, a German fondsmanager pointed out, "Mehr Argumente für Aktien." Translation:
"More arguments for stocks" and on April 30, 2010 another column called tradercolumne said,
"Die Bullen bleiben unbeeindruckt", translation, "the bulls don' t care."Market sentiment remains very bullish, which in financial markets is very bearish.
This behavior mirrors the overall outright bullish sentiment over 10 years ago:
"Warum auch verkaufen, wenn sich Wall Street doch im schönsten geradlinigen Anstieg des Jahrhunderts befindet?" lautet die Devise von Fondspezialist David Alger.
(FAZ, 7.Dezember 1999)Vor 10 Jahren, am 3.Januar 1990 erreichte der japanische Aktienmarkt sein historisches Hoch und die damaligen Presseberichte in der letzten Elliott-Impulswelle klangen nicht anders als heute, Ende 1999 Anfang 2000 im Hinblick auf den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt.
"Japan's Breathless Bull Run" lautete eine Schlagzeile und, "...on the floor of the Tokio Exchange, groups of traders periodically break out a round of applause. The spontaneaous outburst is usually a pep rally staged by already hyperactive brokers trying to cheer the market higher. Tokios answer to Wall Street is fanning a veritable financial frenzy. It's a country where stock buying is a national obsession for everyone from housewifes to captains of industry.Japans investors seem remarkably complacent about risks. If there is any fear at all, it't that stocks may rise too far too fast."
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