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Here You find examples of successful forecasts by ELLtoday using the Elliott Wave Principle.

 

From the Weekly Update, March 2,2008

 

Gold, March 02,2008

© ELLIOTT today, March 2,2008 

 

 

 

Both Gold and Silver rallied further to new highs. Despite an overall extreme optimism toward
the prospects for both metals still suggests that the advance is far closer to an end than a beginning.
For instance, gold traders as well as commodity advisors have pushed to 97% bulls (DSI) and
93% bulls (Market Vane's Bullish Consensus), respectively. There is no question that investors 
are on-board the rally, and the extreme to which they believe in its continuation has historically
led to a top. 

---

 

ELLIOTT today's Forecast For 2007

Here's the original chart with Elliott wave labeling posted to subscribers on January 27,2007:

Weekly Update © ELLIOTT today, January 27, 2007 

 

DJIA

 

 

Emotionally charged markets often display Fibonacci time relationships. My Fibonacci turn dates presented on January 19, 2007 have done a pretty good job of alerting us to some key dates for the Dow and the S&P 500. (ELLtoday catched the recent high to the minute and provided traders so inclinded a pocket full of dollars).

The next strong cluster of turn dates is February 7, 2007 (+/-3 days). 

Elliott Wave analysis: As can be seen, since the low of July 2007, the market traveled in a nice Elliott parallel trend channel until wave 4 bottomed. Wave 5 was expected to trace out a normal subdivided five-wave advance, but the market choosed to trace out a more  complex pattern, most likely an ending diagonal triangle for wave 5. If so, another upwave in wave 5 of the DT is expected to carry the market higher but I think not much above the latest high. While the Elliott wave structure does not yet allow me to eliminate this possibility, the technical picture argues forcefully against new highs. On the other hand, if the recent decline is not yet over, the next natural support is the fourth wave of the preceding advance, slightly above the 12,000s level. 

---

 

 

Forecast & Outcome

Nasdaq Composite 
(c) ELLIOTT today, April 6, 2002

 

Chart: Quote.com

Outcome: The NASDAQ Composite Index continued to decline into October 10,2002 and bottomed at 1109. On April 2002, ELLIOTT today presented 
the following EW-update & forecast:

 

Special-Report April 2002

Nasdaq Composite
(c) ELLIOTT today

"A  0,786 multiplication with the all-time high (5132) would call for a drop to 1099 points." 

The Weekly-Chart of the Nasdaq Composite display a very simple form, but if you take a closer look into the waves, channels and Fibonacci numbers you will immediately get a fascinating picture. The picture is cleary striking. Nasdaq’s decline from its March 2000 all-time high offers one of the most dramatic pictures among all the major stock market averages. Notice the percentage swings between waves in the Fibonacci section of this report. If there were ever a proof for market timing, technical-analysis, Elliott Wave or Fibonacci-price relationships – the Nasdaq produced them all together with remarkable accuracy.

 

”Imagine all the people…”, we do not refer to one of the last songs of John Lennon, but anyone who bought into the euphoria at the all-time high or the bull trap highs of early September and late January, would have losses mounting –40 %, -47%, 38 % and even –68 % at the March 2001 low. As history shows that the action during 1997-1999 has been quite similar to that of 1928-1929. The so called ‘Great Crash’ of 1929 to 1932 retraced  89,52 %  from the September high of 382 to 40. A similar occurrence would bring the Nasdaq down to 565 points ! A mania is a rare event and examples show , manias are always more than fully retraced.

 

The herding impulse, rather than the rational neocortex , drives the decisions of most financial market participants. Both the herding impulse and its attentant emotions are hard-wired nearly identically into people’s unconscious minds. Whatever certain individuals may decide rationally, such decisions tend to cancel out, leaving herding impulses to determine the market’s overall trend. 
(Socionomics>>>)

The Wave Principle describes the order and pattern of human herding. Ironically, emotional markets are more orderly than non-emotionally markets because they more pureley reflect the aggregate impulse to herd. People feel and therefore almost universally believe that emotional markets are disorderly, but that is only because their limbic system at such times give off emotions that create stress.

 

As you can see , not  only does the Primary wave 3 subdivide into five waves of Intermediate Degree (1),(2),(3),(4),(5) , but it also travels within a parallel trend channel. Waves (2) and (4) provides alternation by taking different forms (zigzag and flat), thus satisfaying the most common guideline of impulse wave formation (EWP, Frost & Prechter, 1990, S.54). The upper parallel of the trendchannel of Primary degree contains wave (c) and (e) of the Primary degree triangle of wave four.

 

Target of Primary Wave 5 :

 

If Primary wave 5 covers almost exactly the same distance as Primary wave 1 (- 37 %) than Primary Wave 5 would bottom at 1226. Triangle wave (e) topped at the weekly chart at 1946 points.(1946 x 0,37 = 720. 1946-720=1226). It’s interisting to observe, that a 0,382 multiplication with the low of the first wave (3227) gives 1232, not far from 1226.

 

After a triangle is complete, the final impulse wave is generally swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle (S.42 EWP). The widest part of the triangle in in this case are the waves  (a) and (b). The distance is 941 points (2328-1387) ). 941 points substracted from wave (e) of the triangle points down to 1005, a level that would bring in a whopping  - 80 % loss from the all-time high. A  0,786 multiplication with the all-time high (5132) would call for a drop to 1099 points. Note at this point that a  0,618 multiplication with the all-time high is 1961, not far from the end of the triangle (5132 x 0,618 = 3171. 5132-3171=1961).

 

What’s more ? A  0,618 multiplication of the Primary wave 3 low at 1619 would exactly point down to 1000,54 ! The elements of a forecast under the Wave Principle, in order of predictability, are direction, degree, extent (price target, wheather it outcomes is another question), pattern and duration. Time then, is the least predictable element. (Elliott Wave Principle>>>)

 

 

 

 

elliott-today - riding the waves with confidence

 

S&P 500, December 2,2002
(c) ELLIOTT today

"Has The Top Been Seen?"

Chart: Quote.com

S&P 500, December 2,2002:
"Has the top been seen?" From the low of November 13 the market traced what looks like wedge-shaped formation for wave (a). Wave (b) was a zigzag, a normal correction. Wave (c) contains five waves up within a nice trend channel. Wave v of (c) reached exactly the upper parallel of that channel and prices fell imediately.Wave (c) stopped two points of a Fibonacci 1.236 times of wave (a). 

On March 12,2003 the S&P 500 made a low at 768
- a loss of -186 points ! 
(Elliott Wave Principle>>>)

DJIA, "High Of May 2002"
(c) ELLIOTT today

"Thrilling Juncture"

Chart: Technical Investor

ELLIOTT today, May 31,2002: DJIA - The wave pattern presented mid May is a thrilling juncture for a wave analyst. "Some incredibly larger wave pattern may have been completed, patterns which have important implications for the next five to six months. From May 6,2002 to May 20,2002 the Dow formed an Elliott a-b-c structure known as a zigzag [5-3-5], which ended with another well known Elliott-pattern: Wave (v) of C traced out an ending diagonal triangle and signaled the end of the small countertrend move. The next 10 days, prices fell to where they started: DJIA 9800. The chart of the DJIA presents another great example of the value of The Elliott Wave Principle. Needless to say where prices headed thereafter: On October 2002, the DJIA fell below 7200 points - a loss of more than 3000 points ! (Elliott Wave Principle>>>)

DJIA, April 11,2002
(c) ELLIOTT today

"An Elliott Pattern & A Forecast"

Chart: Quote.com

From April 8 to April 11, 2002 
the DJIA formed a diagonal triangle for wave C (EWP, p.31), which is a very bearish formation and usually followed by a sharp decline retracing back at least 
to the level where the diagonal triangle began. That's exactly what happened. By October 2002 the DJIA dipped
below 7200 ! 
(Elliott Wave Principle>>>)

The High of March 19,2002

"Kicking The Bearish Blues"

DJIA,
(c) ELLIOTT today, March 24,2002

Chart: Technical Investor

open window

DJIA,March 24,2003

Corrective Waves: The single most important rule that can be gleaned from a study of the various corrective patterns is that corrections can never be fives. Only impulse waves can be fives. In other words, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it. [Elliott Wave Principle, Frost & Prechter,1990, p.34]. 

What YOU SEE ? We wrote: "The rally from the low of September 21,2001 has a three-wave structure. Thus the best interpretion of the current wave status is that an a-b-c zigzag unfolded from the September low and Intermediate Wave (2) reached Fibonacci resistance. Five waves up for wave c can be counted as complete. 
[11350-8063= -3287. 3287 x 0.786 = 2583.58]. 2583 added to the low
of 8063 gives 10646 a reasonable target for the end of that counter 
trend rally"

"Kicking The Bearish Blues" sounded the headline of Barron's monthly edition of May, 6,2002. They wrote:"A surprising number of portfolio managers expect the market doldrums to end soon, with the Dow vaulting pas 11,000 this year." 

"Think Positive" was another headline in the same paper. "April showers haven't squeled money managers' bullish views" says the writer and 
"47 % of the professional money managers responding to our spring 2002 big money poll declared themselves bullish about the stock market's prospects through the end of 2002. To be sure, that's down from a blusterous 67 % of respondents surveyed last fall, just after the terrorist attecks that destroyed the WTC . But its still impressive, given the daily drumbeat of negative  news coming from the corporate sector."

"The bullish managers believe a pick-up in earnings in this years third and fourth quarters will drive the market higher, lifting the Dow above 11,000 in the month ahead".  

ELLIOTT today had a totally contrary positon and projected the coming down-wave in red ink. Our analysis based on Elliott patterns, sentiment figures [mood] and time zone analysis [178 days from Sept.21,2001] served us well. 

The DJIA fell a whopping -3476 points or -32.5% to a low on October 10,2002.  Important sentiment measures have bullish extremes. In January, the consensus of investment advisors was more positive than at any of the Dow's eight trips to 11,000 since May 1999. 

 

S&P 500 Index

The Top Of March 5,2004

"Early Warning - Wedge Shaped"
© March 5,2004 - ELLIOTT today

Chart>>>

S&P 500 Index

Short term update, Feb.9,2004
© ELLIOTT today

"...1160 should be favored" 

 

 

Chart: Trade Signal

S&P 500 Index (SPX), Feb.9,2004: Prices held above the lower trend channel line and staged what looks like a five-wave-upmove. 

It is highly likely, that the supposed wave c of (iv) produced a “truncated fifth” and the fourth wave correction ended short of wave a. If so, 1160 should be favored as a near term target since it presents the Fibonacci 50% retracement level of 1553-768.

 

S&P 500 Index
(C) ELLIOTT today, March 5,2004

 

Chart: Trade Signal

Elliott today, March 5,2004:
As the wave nears completion, the line which connects the ends of waves two and four is the most reliable lower parallel for constructing  the final channel. If wave three is abnormally strong, almost vertical, then a parallel drawn from the top of the third wave may be too high. Past experience show that a parallel to the baseline which touches the top of wave one is then more useful. [EWP, p.64, EWP,Frost & Prechter,1990, Expanded Edition]  

Short term update, S&P 500 Index, January 21,2004: 
ELLIOTT today, January 21,2004:
After the wave (iv) correction, the S&P 500 may be on its way to 1160,50 [50% Fibonacci retracement 1553-768].

Outcome: On February 11, 2004 the S&P 500 reached 1,158.59 [intraday high].

 

Top Of June 2004
S&P 500 Index

SPX, 10min., June 24,2004
(C) ELLIOTT today

Following a bullish divergence in the RSI on June 22, the rally in the SPX traced out five waves up with wave v an extension. Prices broke the MA40 together with the lower channel line of the parallel trend- channel. If you are a meticulous Elliott student, you may have observed that the wave contains some small imperfections. As good as the channel is, it is not formed from the most common touch points, which in this case would be waves ii and iv on the underside and wave iii of the topside. Wave iii of iii of v of v however touches the upper channel line exactly. 

 

 

 

S&P 500 Index - 1217?
(c) ELLIOTT today

Forecast

 

 

SPX,10min.,12/22/2004. 
The charts displays wave (v) of 5 of the diagonal triangle shown  on the daily chart above (count#2). The Fibonacci calculation includes the whole wave subdivisions starting on October 10,2002. Now observe, in percentage terms, a perfect internal wave relationship will be achieved at 1217. On January 3,2005, the SP500 Index topped at 1217.90. 

The Low of October 25,2004

DJIA, October 22,2004
(c) ELLIOTT today

Forecast

There is every case to believe that a bottom is near. A trendline drawn connecting the previous lows in May and August points to a move slightly below 9800 and then a powerful reversal. 

 

 

The Low of August 13,2004

SPX, 10min., August 13,2004

Forecast

 

 

Chart: quote.com

SPX, 8/12/2004. The "thrust out of the triangle" completed wave c of ii and stopped quite close at the Fibonacci 0.786 (square root of phi). Note the similarity of waves a and c and both ended with a "spike-high" above ML-1 (dotted line). 

SP500 Index, July 11,2005
Gann notes July 7 to 10, 21 to 27 and again you’ll notice, July 7,2005 will be remembered as the day of the “London Bombing”. The next 90 day cycle low will be due on July 20,2005 and that date will be the 176^th  day since January 24. (176/2=88). But there is more: July 11,2005 counts as day number 839 from the March 2003 low and August 13, 2004 divides the distance into the “Golden Section.” (511/839=0.609). The recent upmove brought the S&P 500 Index slightly above the upper ML-2 line and right into the ML-3 (yellow) but remains below the longer term ML-1.

 

 

 

SPX, August 13,2004

...outcome

 

 

Chart: quote.com

SPX, 8/13/2004. Only two hours of trading brought the SP500 Index back to the level where it was on Tuesday/Wednesday. The wave structure is not yet complete and one more wave to the downside is needed to complete five-waves down. 

[The S&P 500 Index declined to 1060 on August 13,2004]

S&P 500 Index, 10min., 
(C) ELLIOTT today, June 24,2005

EW Analysis & Forecast Before The Opening Bell as of June 23,2005. Original chart as presented to subscribers before the opening bell on June 24,2005

SPX; 06/23/2005. Once again, the market held above the ML-2 shown on June 21,2005. (see chart below). Yesterday's fractionally new high CAN be labeled as a "thrust out of a triangle" as shown on the chart. The following decline traced out what looks like a five-wave structure on the line chart and stopped slightly above the ML-1. Waves a and b formed three-wave structures and the advance in wave c is a five. The bounce pulled back into the area of 1216 as forecasted on 06/22/2005: "The upper channel line of ML-2 is virtually important, since the highs of 1219 and 1216 failed at that line and in each case a decline followed." Again, that area seems to be of importance, since the upper channel line of ML-1 points to 1216-1217. 

SP500 Index, 
(c) ELLIOTT today, May 14,2005

SP500 Index, 05/14/2005. "Bottoms above 50 percent of the range or of the high indicate that the stock is strong", (p.49, Gann Made Easy, William McLaren). Measured from the alltime-high to the low of October 2002 the midpoint or 50% level is 1161. The high of March 2004 was 1163 and was basically forecasted on January 21,2004 as a probably target for the end of the countertrend rally. As you  can see on the daily chart (SPX, YTD) price movements continue to oscillate above and below 1163. 

Friday's low of 1146.18 marks a Fibonacci 0.786 retracement of the distance 1136-1179 (43x 0.786 = 33.8. 1179-33.8=1145.20 (+/-1) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the distance from the low of August 13,2004 at 1060 and the high of March 7,2005: 168/2=84.2. 1060.72+84.2=1144.92 (+/-1.26). 

The chart displays the probability of an ongoing "wedge" as one of three scenarios outlined last week. IF so, the market now trades in wave 5 of that "leading wedge" and should decline into the 1124-1125 area, which also marks a Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the distance from August 13,2004 low to the March 7,2005 high. A move above the upper boundary line of the "wedge" would eliminate that count. 

You already may have noticed that Friday's low touched the longer term ML-1 exactly and the market turned immediately after the "touchdown" was perfect. The upper channel line of ML-1 points to 1182-1185 depending on the time the market needs to reach that level. 1182.5  marks just another 50% retracement of the distance 1229- 1136. A move above 1192 would add to the strongest Elliott evidence in favor of our DT scenario.

German DAX

 (c) ELLIOTT today, 29.Mai 2002 

  Make it or Break it ! 

open window

  DAX 05/29/2002

DAX - 29.Mai 2002 - Make it or Break it ! 

How it came out ! 

Der DAX fiel von 5060 Punkten in einer klaren 5-Wellenbewegung auf 4860 Punkten. Die Struktur dieser 5er entspricht den Gesetzen und Richtlinien des Elliott Wave Principle. Die 3.Welle ist nicht die kürzeste, Welle 4 überlappt nicht die Welle 1 und die Korrekturformationen in Welle 2 und 4 alternieren. Zigzag - flat. Das 61.8 % Retracement-Level lag in diesem Beispiel bei 4983. Diese Marke liegt exakt an der oberen Trendline des Diagonal Triangles, als der Markt mit einem "Gap" von der unteren Trendline in einer letzten "gasp-rally" die 5.Welle des Diagonal Triangles komplettierte. 

Der DAX fiel bis 26.Juni 2002 auf 3946 Punkte !!!

NASDAQ Composite 

© ELLIOTT today
  July 2000

Nasdaq Composite
A classic 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement:

5039 - 3042 = -1997. 1997 x 0.618 = 1234.14
3042 +1234.14 = 4276.14 (+/-2.14)

More examples Nasdaq Comp >>>

 

Elliott Fractals>>>

Elliott Special's>>>