Category: Social Unrest

 

History and the Socionomic Hypothesis

All of history flows from the fact that men have a nature, that this nature includes unconscious patterns of interaction, and that these patterns produce results in human social action. Humanity might have produced a history without the unconscious herding impulse. However, it would not have produced the passionate, collective history that we do have, with its wars, treaties, construction, migrations, governments, religions, societies and cultures. Elliott waves, like them or not, are the first cause of history. Since waves are governed by Fibonacci mathematics, then the mathematics with which nature is most intimate are behind the tenor and events of history. The mathematics of robust fractal geometry also account for both the repetitiveness and uniqueness of history. 

The Wave Principle provides a scientific explanation for the observation, "History repeats in the generalities but not in the details." Because fundamental Elliott Wave patterns are limited in number while their manifestations have substantial variability, and because the continual expansion of degree imparts uniqueness to every wave, interactive human mentation and behavior, which produce history, are continually repeated, but not precisely. 

 

Once again, empirics and hypothesis are compatible. (HSB, 1999)

 

 

Benazir Bhutto assassinated

CNN, December 27,2007

 

 

 

 

A Documentary About What Really Moves Markets

 

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how markets behave. The description reveals that mass investor psychology swings from  pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific patterns in price movement. Each pattern has implications regarding  the position of the market within its overall progression , past, present and future. 

 

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The Shifting Sands of Globalizaion 
By Chris Mayer  It wasn't so long ago that nomads wandered the desert region that has  become the modern Dubai. The Bedouin fished and dove for pearls in the Gulf and Persian traders built little courtyard houses of coral and gypsum. Today, a vibrant, modern and rich city stands on what was once only a sea of sand.  Skyscrapers and deal-makers – not camels and nomads – dominate contemporary Dubai. As such, this prosperous Arabian city has become a symbol of the new economy that promises to shift the axis of commerce from West to East…and that threatens to de-stabilize the dollar's reign over the global monetary system. Full article>>>

 

FBI: Hate crimes jump nearly 8 percent 
Racial prejudice accounts for half the hate crime incidents
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Hate crime incidents in the United States rose last year by nearly 8 percent, the FBI reported Monday, as racial prejudice continued to account for more than half the reported instances. A symbol of racial violence and hate, the noose is the focus of several alleged hate crimes cases across the U.S. Police across the nation reported 7,722 criminal incidents in 2006 targeting victims or property as a result of bias against a particular race, religion, sexual orientation, ethnic or national origin or physical or mental disability. That was up 7.8 percent from the 7,163 incidents reported in 2005. CNN, Nov 20,2007 Socionomics>>>

 

Forex: It's Not the News That Matters 
11/1/2007 7:12:45 PM  Elliott Wave International

Dick Parsons Steps Down 05 Nov 2007 
Time Warner CEO Dick Parsons is expected to step down today, 
reports CNBC's David Faber Heroes>>>

Euro Zone Factory Growth Slows Down Sharply
Economy>>>

Mortgage mess hitting WaMu hard
more>>>

 

Pakistan declares state of emergency
President Musharraf declares martial law
Troops enter the Supreme Court
Chief Justice sacked; 'Bhutto in Karachi'
Most channels goes off air in blackout
CNN, Nov 3,2007 -Social Unrest>>>

Violence is th edominant trend in the third or "C" waves 
of a major decline in social mood.
(The Elliott Wave Theorist, August 2006) 

 

 

KAMPF GEGEN DIE PKK
Die heimliche Invasion der Türken im Irak
Die türkische Armee ist längst im Nordirak: Mitten im Kurden-Gebiet steht sie mit 150 Panzern und schwerer Artillerie. Ihr Kampf gegen die PKK kommt trotzdem nicht voran. Kein Wunder: Mit militärischer Macht sind die Separatisten kaum zu schlagen. spiegel.de, 27.10.2007


US- SCHUTZSCHILD
Putin vergleicht Raketenstreit mit Kuba- Krise
Starke Worte: Beim Treffen mit EU-Vertretern hat Russlands Präsident Putin den Konflikt um den geplanten US- Raketenschild mit der Kuba-Krise verglichen. Ein hochrangiger russischer Militär droht mit der Wiederaufnahme der Produktion von Kurz- und Mittelstreckenraketen. spiegel.de, 27.10.2007

Russland entzieht Lufthansa Cargo Überflugerlaubnis
Das Verbot erwischte die Verantwortlichen kalt: Die Lufthansa Cargo darf mit Beginn des Winterflugplans den russischen Luftraum nicht mehr überfliegen. Ein Wettlauf um die Abschottung der nationalen Lufträume droht.
spiegel online, Oct 31,2007

US- RUSSISCHE BEZIEHUNGEN
Feindschaft reloaded
US-Präsident Bush hat sich getäuscht: Nach 9/11 sah er Putin als Freund. Doch der verfolgt seit Jahren knallhart russische Machtpolitik - ohne Rücksicht auf persönliche Bande. Jetzt droht die zerbrochene Freundschaft in offene Feindschaft umzuschlagen. Der Iran-Konflikt ist nur ein Beispiel. 
(Spiegel.de. 18.10.2007) Socionomics explains >>>

 

 

The Shifting Sands of Globalizaion 
By Chris Mayer 

It wasn't so long ago that nomads wandered the desert region that has become 
the modern Dubai. The Bedouin fished and dove for pearls in the Gulf and 
Persian traders built little courtyard houses of coral and gypsum. Today, a 
vibrant, modern and rich city stands on what was once only a sea of sand. 
Skyscrapers and deal-makers – not camels and nomads – dominate contemporary 
Dubai. As such, this prosperous Arabian city has become a symbol of the new 
economy that promises to shift the axis of commerce from West to East…and 
that threatens to de-stabilize the dollar's reign over the global monetary 
system. 

During my recent visit to Dubai, I was standing out in front of my hotel with 
Joel Bowman, who co-edits the Rude Awakening and lives in Dubai. We were 
waiting for a taxi. "I think this might be one," I say. "Nah," he says. "It's 
not a Lexus. Look for a Lexus." 

What is a luxury car in America is but a common taxi in Dubai. That's some 
small measure of the wealth of this place. But it hardly tells the whole 
story. Dubai is becoming an important new global financial hub whose impact 
investors are only just starting to comprehend. In the ever-changing 
investment mosaic, Dubai offers clues as to how markets may shift next. 

It's hard to believe how rapidly this part of the world has changed. As we 
whipped along new highways through the city, you could see construction 
cranes all over the place. In just one little area, I counted over 25. Dubai 
is only 1,500 square miles. It's tiny. Yet there are over 5,000 construction 
sites. 

Then there are the buildings themselves. I saw the Burj Dubai tower, the 
tallest building in the world. When finished, it could measure some 2,700 
feet. That's about twice the height of the Empire State Building. The thing 
is just massive. It dwarfs the other nearby skyscrapers. 

Then there is the Burj Al Arab, the self-proclaimed seven-star hotel with its 
distinctive sail shape. I saw the famous palm-shaped manmade islands. The 
Dubai Waterfront, for example, is a crescent-shaped man-made island twice the 
size of Manhattan. Dubai is just one architectural marvel after another. One 
writer described the city as "a goulash of Las Vegas, Zurich, Disney World, 
Rodeo Drive and Miami Beach." 

More and more, though, this part of the world is going to be hard to ignore - 
and not just for the audacity of its architecture. Dubai, for example, paid 
$825 million for U.S. department store Barneys in June. It also recently 
bought a 19% stake in the Nasdaq. Dubai International Capital (its main 
shareholder is Dubai's ruling family) most recently bought a $1.25 billion 
stake in American hedge fund Och-Ziff Capital Management. This follows the 
$1.5 billion purchase of the Madame Tussauds wax museum, the $1.2 billion 
purchase of U.K. engineering firm Doncasters - and numerous other purchases 
over the last six months. 

It's not just Dubai, but also Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait. They are buying up 
banks, stock exchanges, energy companies, ports, airports and other 
infrastructure. They also like real estate – picking up prime Manhattan 
properties and beachfront property in South Africa. Middle Eastern countries 
have spent more than $64 billion so far this year on investments abroad, 
compared with only $30 billion the year before. They've got billions more to 
spend. 

A good part of that cash comes from the so-called sovereign wealth funds 
(Essentially, investment pools run by the governments of oil-rich nations). 
They are becoming major players in international finance. These great pools 
of money are something new under the financial sun in that we have never seen 
them attain such a massive scale. 

Four of the eight largest funds are from the Gulf, with the Abu Dhabi 
Investment Authority at the top of the charts, weighing in at $875 billion. 
That's three times the size of the big California pension fund, CalPERS. Now 
the SWFs are starting to invest their cash. 

There are some general themes to their buying, and what they buy and sell 
could give us some insight into where market prices for some assets may be 
going. 

First, what are they selling? They no longer like the dollar. Nor are they 
satisfied sitting on U.S. Treasuries. Kuwait, for example, severed its 
currency's tie to the dollar, thereby freeing it from having to buy any more 
dollars. Its currency has strengthened since it cut the link. To fund all of 
these purchases, the Middle Eastern wealth funds are trading in their 
dollars. So it would seem the dollar has many sellers yet. 

What are they buying? They like emerging markets. A Kuwaiti fund manager 
recently said: "Why invest in 2%-growth economies when you can invest in 8%-
growth economies?" He's shifting more money to India, China and Southeast 
Asia. As for currencies, he prefers the South Korean won, Malaysian ringgit 
and Indian rupee over the dollar, euro or pound sterling. 

The allocation to the U.S. and Europe is still sizable, but lower than in the 
past. Gulf countries have bought Manhattan real estate, for example. This is 
reminiscent of the 1980s, when Japanese investors snapped up trophy 
properties in America. Middle Eastern money is following that path globally - 
with hotel deals in Shanghai, Beijing, Jakarta and Singapore, as well as 
properties in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Miami and Chicago and resorts in 
the Caribbean. 

The Middle Eastern countries also have many needs of their own. Dubai, for 
example, needs water and power, especially given the ambitious development 
pipeline - some $300 billion in real estate over the next 10 years. Getting 
water and power to those projects will be a challenge. Already, there are 
strains; developers have delayed projects because of lagging connections to 
power and water supplies. 

According to the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), the increase 
in demand for power and water rises by an average of 20% and 15%, 
respectively, each year. There's a clear need for infrastructure investment, 
which is coming one way or another. 

A recent report by Arab Petroleum Investments Corp. says the United Arab 
Emirates will spend $61 billion boosting power and water supplies by 2011. 
People are enterprising, however. They will not wait for the government. 
While I was in Dubai, a front-page story reported that the private sector was 
set to overtake the government as the main supplier of new water and 
electricity supplies in the Gulf. According to forecasts by a business 
intelligence group called MEED, private sector water and power supplies will, 
for the first time, account for the majority of new deals in 2008. 

MEED notes that calling on the private sector is a "cost-effective way to get 
new infrastructure built." Shades of what I heard in India - where large tech 
companies like Infosys and Satyam maintain sprawling IT campuses with their 
own water and power supplies. It's a trend we'll see more of around the 
world. 

As these booming economies of the East stretch their tentacles throughout the 
global economy, a new generation of investment opportunity is emerging. But 
this opportunity might be priced in dinar or euros, rather than U.S. dollars. 

[Joel's Note: After hanging out with Chris and some Rude Awakening friends on 
the rooftop of the Shangri-la hotel, the course of discussion headed toward 
investment opportunities around the world. Chris spoke about Argentina and 
his recent trip to India, highlighting many areas he is keeping a close eye 
on for his many avid readers. I'd like to invite you to take a seat with 
Chris and get a feel for some of his investment strategies. His Capital & 
Crisis newsletter has one of the highest renewal rates in the industry and he 
consistently delivers quality insights to his readers.

 

Political Freedom as a Function of Worldwide Social Mood

Note the general parallelism. This relationship suggests that advancing waves tend to lead to political freedom, while retrenchement tend to lead to political repression. As social mood becomes positive, more territory moves from dictatorship to representative government. As social mood becomes more negative, more territory falls to dictators. 
(The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter)

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Socionomics:  

Practical thinking/Magical thinking: 

Practical thinking manifests itself in philosophic defenses of reason, self-providence, individualism, peacemaking and a reverence for science. 
Magical thinking manifests itself in philosophic attacks on reason, self-abnegation, collectivism, 
witch hunts, war-making and a reverence for religion.  

 

The Land of Flint and Steel

Global conflict is a product of a downturn in social mood. The inescapable tensions between nations
and distinct social groups that arise at such times is best illustrated by the chart "Political Results of 
Social Sentiment." (See page 337 of The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior).
Social clashes take myriad forms, but one bellwether rift that has an almost perfect record of erupting 
into open hostility right at the onset of major downturns is the Mideast. Figure 1 shows that relations 
between Jews and Arabs in Israel (or Palestine before 1948) have been particularly responsive to the
onset of important bear markets since 1929. In that year, says The Year of the Great Crash, "All hell had 
broken loose in Palestine. At the end of August, a series of relatively inconsequential disputes concerning
the privilegs of worship for Jews and Muslims erupted into an orgy of bloodletting." The violence came a
few days before the Dow's final high. 

If major hostilities are defined as wars or mob violence that result in mass killings, each of the headlines on 
the graph marks a significant outbreak. All were preceded by periods of easing tension (or at least an
absence of bloodshed) and followed by further clashes. The greatest stretch of peaceful cooperation between
the two sides is shown in the Era of Good Feelings table at the bottom of figure 1. It started on September 13,1993, with the famous handshake between Prime Minister of Israel and the Chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Historians said the handshake was a symbol of "a major breakthrough after a century of conflict." The Elliott Wave Theorist identified it as a product of the century-long advance in stock prices that would mark a long-term top rather than a great new era for Palestinian and Israeli relations. The next seven years of bull market yielded productive talks but no lasting peace. As late as January 30,2000, the Houston Chronicle reported that the "tide of history" was moving the "Mideast toweard peace."
In reality, however, the tide had already reversed. In July 2000, the same newspaper would mark the moment
by reporting, "Syrian-Israeli peace negotiations have been frozen since mid-January." The exact date of the 
freeze was January 11, three days before the Dow's all-time high. By last summer, the anxiety level was 
clearly rising fast as the Palestinians threatened to declare statehood and another peace conference failed
to produce a breakthrough for the first time since 1993. As stocks entered their September - October swoon, 
Palestinian sections of Israel exploded in a continous wave of rioting. In December, this headline evidenced
the depth of anger: "As Arafat Embraces Revolt, His Sagging Popularity Rises." Israel responded with the 
election of hardliner Ariel Sharon. In the first half of May 2001, the situation bordered on open warfare. 
"Is it War Yet? asked one headline on May 20. On May 21, the Bush administration criticized Israel fo rusing U.S. supplied warplanes against Palestinians for the first time since the 1967 war, which was a year after the peak in Cycle III. Finally, on May 22, the day of the Dow's secondary high, there was a "glimmer of hope" as Sharon talked of compromise and ordered Isreali forces, "only to return fire if shot at."

Past signals have usually come at and after long term turns, although the 16957 outbreak was followed by
a run that almost made a new high in 1968. Given that precedent, perhaps the unfolding crisis in the Mideast
does not preclude a new high in the Dow. If the Dow goes to a new high, the conflict may ease briefly, but a 
historic sell signal for the stock market has clearly been issued by the open warfare. The Mideast's record 
as an early register of negative social mood suggests that a major bear market and thus a trend toward 
global hostility has only just begun. (Pioneering Studies in Socionomics, 2003 by Robert R.Prechter jr.) 

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Umfrage
Mehrheit der Deutschen glaubt an Wunder
Über die Hälfte aller Bundesbürger ist überzeugt: Wunder existieren. Dabei ist dieser Glaube
in Ostdeutschland weniger verbreitet als im Westen. Die Welt online, 21.9.2006

 

Zum Thema Suizid heisst es im Spiegel Nr.38/2006, 
"Ein 23-jähriger soll via Internet tödliche Pillen verkauft haben. Seine Kundschaft: Selbstmord- kandidaten aus ganz Deutschland. Sechs Menschen starben." Ein Kriminalfall wie ihn die Republik noch nicht erlebt hat. 

 

A Boom in Self-Destruction?

Suicide, literally "self-killing," is the ultimate act of social rebellion, the point at which tension
between individuals and larger social units is no longer tolerated. The most straight-forward
socionomic relationship would be an inverse correlation in which suicide fell with a rising
social mood and rose with a falling one. But the data doesn't always support such a linkage.
In the 1920s, for instance , suicides rose steadily despite a roaring bull market , but they peaked
in 1932, right at the stock market's bottom. They fell from 1937 to 1942 along with stocks and
a second phase of the Great Depression. As the Dow more than doubled from 1980 to 1986, 
suicides increased sligthly. So, suicide rate are not like their opposite, the act of procreation,
which tends to move in a step-for-step fashion with the market. 

However, the history shown in this chart of suicides rates back through 1900 and an emerging
social fascination with the exercise indicate that a big surge in suicide activity may be underway.
The dominant trait exhibited by this chart is an overall declline in the frequency of suicide since
the early 1900s. The total 10.4 suicides per every 100,000 in 2000 was the lowest since 1961. 
The lowest level on record is 9.8 in 1957 when the bull market of the 1900s was in a powerful
third wave, marking the momentum peak of Cycle Wave III. So, on the whole, suicidal impulses
appear to be guided by social mood. The other two suicide peaks came in 1915 and 1977, 
shortly after multi-year lows in the major stock averages. The lows of 1932 and 1977 accompanied
fourth waves of Supercycle and Cycle degree. A section on "Nuances" in Chapter 15 of 
The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior explains that negative social themes due to 
appear in any approaching bear market first express themselves in a milder form in preceding 
fourth wave of one lesser degree. According to this guideline then, a slight rise from a 40-year low
of 10.4 suicides in 2000 to 10.8 in 2001 should be a the start of a rise to a new alltime-high. The
Japanese experience also suggests a dramatic rise. 

Since the re-birth of Mideast hostilities in late 2000, suicide bombings have become an everday
event. Historically, efforts to gain military or political objectives through self-destruction are
almost unheard of. The main precedent is Japanese kamikaze pilots who turned airplanes into
guided misssiles in the final days of World War II. this is another example of fourth wave 
foreshadowing , as kamikazes appeared near the end of Supercycle (IV) in inflation adjusted
terms. 

Meanwhile, suicide is a rising theme in popular culture. Several well-known performers have 
killed themselves off in music videos. Britney Spears is one, but the death scene in her
Everytime video was edited out when it came out in March. A popular country song called
Whiskey Lullaby tells the story of dual suicide by drinking. "He/She put the bottle on her/his
head and pulled the trigger." For misery, the song beats out all the old crying-in-your-beer 
country hits by a long shot. To see the rising fascination with the song, do a Google search on
"Whiskey Lullaby' lyrics." Google lists links to 11,000 sites. "Jonestown, The Musical," a play
about the forced suicide of 913 people in "Jonestown," Guyana in 1978, made it to the stage
in Manhattan in August. The show was dismissed for being in poor taste, but the critics had better
get used to this type of fare. Bad taste, mixed morality, and complex social issues are the staples
of a bear market in social mood. (EWFF, October 2004) 

Okkultismus
Das Comeback des Satans
Sie veranstalten schwarze Messen auf Friedhöfen oder Rituale in düsteren Kellern: Immer mehr
Jugendliche sind vom Satanismus fasziniert. Der Satanismus findet nach Einschätzung von
Experten immer mehr Anhänger unter Jugendlichen. (focus.msn.de, 20.9.2006)


Chaves beschimpft Bush als Teufel
Spiegel online, 20.9.2006
Wüste Attacke von Venezuelas Präsident Hugo Chaves: Vor der Uno-Vollversammlung
beschimpfte er den US-Präsidenten als "Teufel höchstpersönlich". Die USA seien "die
größte Gefahr für unseren Planeten", fügte er hinzu.


Das Haus des Krieges (Der Spiegel 38/2006)

"Wütende Proteste, kaum verhüllte Drohungen und geharnischte diplomatische Noten aus
der ganzen islamischen Welt rief eine Rede des bayerischen Papstes hervor. In Wahrheit
Hatte Benedikt XVI. Seinen eigenen Weg zum Dialog der Kulturen weisen wollen. Der 
scheint nun erst einmal verbaut." 

 

Papst Contra Mohammed
Glaubenskampf um den Islam, die Vernunft und die Gewalt, (Der Spiegel, 38/2006)

Papst-Zitat:
Italienische Nonne erschossen 
Vermutlich im Zusammenhang mit den Papst-Äußerungen zum Islam ist eine italienische Nonne
erschossen worden. Am Sonntag bedauerte Benedikt XVI. Missverständnisse. Focus online,
18.September 2006

Religion
Persönliches Bedauern
Der Papst hat sich nun selbst zu seinen umstrittenen Aussagen zum Islam geäußert.
Ob dies die erzürnten Muslime weltweit beruhigen wird, bleibt zweifelhaft. 
Die Zeit online, 18.September 2006

 

 

Socionomics:

Discord, exclusion, unhappiness, anger, fear, defensiveness, 
credulity, malevolence, dullness of focus, destructiveness, a desire for power over people, fuzziness 
of thinking and emotion and feelings of opposition toward others.

Another big underlying dynamic, an emerging religious fervor, is also in line with a shift from practical to magical thinking, which HSB identifies as opposite poles of a bull and bear market, respectively. Practical thinking manifests itself in a reverence for science while magical thinking involves "philosophic attacks on reason, collectivism, witch hunts, war making and a reverence for religion." This emerging mindset is evident in the media's fascination with the old and new Popes and the launch of new lessons on Satanism, demonic possesion and exorcism at the Vatican. 

Business Week's May 23 cover story ponders "Evangelical America," which describes how business techniques developed over the course of the long bull market are now being used to transform the faithful 
and convert the lost. On Wednesday, a story about Germany's rediscovery of religion says 400,000 flocked to the city of Hanover for convention of Protestants, a record number that reflects a renewed national  interest in religious values." (EWFF 6/2005)

 

Muslim Fury Grows at Pope's Speech
The furore over comments made by Pope Benedict about the Islamic concept of Holy War continues to grow. Today British Muslims joined in, fiercely criticising his remarks. Daily Mail, Sept 15, 2006

As another manifestion of exclusion and inclusion, religious wars were common in the Dark Ages and for awhile afterwards, but have been a minor concern in the past eight centuries of rising long-term trend. Indeed, Catholic, Jewish and Arab leaders have all been apologizing, finding common ground and shaking hands publicly in the 1990s, an unprecedent spectacle. (HSB, p.231) Read more

Understanding the Engine of Social Trends

New York, Sept 11 (Bloomberg) - The attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon today are the worst acts of terrorism ever on U.S. soil and change the scope of foreign policy, experts say. Never before has a large scale terrorist attack on the U.S. been coordinated successfully in more than one U.S. city. At this point, no organization has taken responsibility."It's just an attack of extraordinarily sophisticated planning," said Michaeal R. Fishbach, a professor of history specializing in the Middle East at Randolph-Macon College in Ashland, Virginia. "The world that we know has now changed." "Americans' whole attitude about daily life, about foreign policy will be forever changed," Fishbach said. (The Elliott Wave Theorist, September 11, 2001) Read more

"The world that we know has changed" is a correct statement, but it did not change "now." It changed between January 14 and March 24, 2000, a two-month period during which the three major U.S. stock indexes signaled the end of a Grand Supercyle uptrend that had been in force for 216 years. We are only now beginning to feel the lagging results of that change. (The Elliott Wave Theorist, September 11, 2001)

The radical thesis of The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics (New Classics Library, 1999) was unmistakably manifest in the raucous social comedy of the 1990s, and now it is playing out in the first act of a developing worldwide social tragedy that will last years. The primary thesis of this book is that changes in social mood cause and therefore precede changes in the character of social events. In contrast to this idea, most people erroneously try to divine the implications of events in attempts to forecast markets and people's collective feelings. Their approach cannot work because markets are driven by natural trends in mass psychology, and events resulting from those psychological trends come afterward. It is the changes in such trends, as indicated by turn in the stock market, that signal a coming change in the tenor of social events.

An equally radical thesis underlying socionomics is that social mood is patterned, and it is patterned according to the Wave Principle. Since these patterned mood trends precipitate social events, you can forecast the character of social events by tracking the trends and patterns in the primary meter of social mood, the stock market.

Socionomics explained why global atrocities followed the 1929-1932 crash and continued during most of the rest of the bear market pattern, which ended in 1949. It also explained why the worldwide peace initiatives and unprecedented acts of reconciliation of the 1990s followed nearly half a century of social mood uptrend. The dramatic, historic pictures shown in Socionomics to convey the power of these moods were not placed there simply for academic purposes. This is real life we're talking about. You have to live near those events to sense that fact.

The coming trend of negative social psychology will be characterized primarily by polarization between and among various perceived groups, whether political, ideological, religious, geographical, racial or economic. The result will be a net trend toward anger, fear, intolerance, disagreement and exclusion, as opposed to the bull market years, whose net trend has been toward benevolence, confidence, tolerance, agreement and inclusion. Such a sentiment change typically brings conflict in many forms, and evidence of it will be visible in all types of social organizations. Political manifestations will include protectionism in trade matters, the dissolution of old alliances and parties, and the emergence of radical new ones. Tariffs will become popular, regardless of the fact that virtually everyone knows they are dangerous and wrong, because they are a consequence of an increasingly negative psychology involving fear, envy and a misguided attempt at self-defense. Xenophobia will be practiced regardless of people's generally good intentions, because fear and hatred become pervasive in major bear markets regardless of whether or not they are justified.

There will also be a danger that goverments will impose police-state type controls as a consequence of the bear market. Such periods often end with emotional political oustings, whether by vote, resignation, impeachment , coup or revolution. The worst economic and social programs are years away, but advance planning is incalculably better than trying to react when it is too late.

Socionomics differs from standard economics and sociology in one crucial aspect: it recognizes that social causality is precisely the opposite of the standard presumption. Most researchers begin with the presumption that the economy, politics, peace and war, demographics, and all kinds of other cultural events and situations influence people`s thinking, and therefore the social mood, and therefore the trend of the stock market. Socionomics recognizes that the social mood is endogenous and patterned, the result of cooperating impulsive human limbic systems. The result is a patterned series of waves of human social mood. 
When the socionomic premise is adopted, the proper correlation among various cultural and societal trends becomes readily apparent. For the first time, the various products of human interaction make sense together. This result is in dramatic contrast to the chaotic sea of uncertainty and cross-inapplicability that pervades the fields of economics and sociology today. 

 

 

Socionomics explains:

As we have noted here before, there are many more cultural transformations than we have room to cover, but one critical change that signals the depth of the change is in religion. A New York Times article, "Rebel With A Cross," describes a burgeoning "counterculture" that calls to mind a similar experience in the late 1960s. In fact, with their "extreme Christian clothing, "their own music and "alternative churches," The Times says the new followers are "the heirs in spirit of the late 1960s and early 1970s," says a "History of Jesus Movement." The article date its inception to 1967, one year after the start of the bear market, and says it "effectively ended by the mid-1970s," along with the bear market. 

As we noted in back in March 2004 when the blockbuster movie, "The Passion of the Christ," came out, "relgious conviction escalates in a bear market," and the strong emotions that swirled around "The Passion" were an early indication of a strengthening in bear market psychology. May brings The Da Vinci Code, a movie based on the best selling book that is described as a combination conspiracy theory/relgious thriller. (Conspiracies are another emerging passion that appeals to what The Wave Principle of Social Human Behavior   refers to as the "magical thinking" of a bear market.) The non-fiction work on which The Da Vinci Code is based came out at the end of the last bear market in 1982. Suddenly , after years of neglect, this controversial challenge to the core belief of Christians is all in rage. But it has also generated a wave of "interest in the early history of Christianity." (EWFF, 4/2006) Read more >>>

 

 

Horrorserie fürs Handy
Der Spiegel Nr.35, 2006, 28.8.2006

Wiedereinmal wird es ab Freitag auf der Internationalen Funkausstellung in Berlin darum gehen, wann das Fernsehen das Handy erobert. Bisland mangelt es an Formaten, die für das Mäusekino wirklich geeignet sind. "Kill your Darling" soll die erste deutsche Handy-Soap,  produziert von der Ufa-Tochter Phoenix heißen, "die in insgesamt 30 Folgen zu je drei Minuten eine kleine Horrorgeschichte erzählt, wie eine Art Mix aus "Der König von Kreuzberg" und "The Blair Witch Project." 

When social mood reentered a major bear trend in 1966, so did groundbreaking horror movies. "Night of the Living Dead" debuted in 1968, the year after the last of that era's Disney cartoon classics. It was so influential that it spawned two sequels (both produced during the bear market), several derivations and two books. A breakthrough in gore entitled "The Texas Chainsaw Massacre" was released in 1974, as stocks made their nominal price lows. (The Wave Principle of Human 
Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics, 1999) 

 

Madonna in Düsseldorf
Sex und Religion und großer Kitsch

Madonnas erstes Deutschland-Konzert im Rahmen ihrer aktuellen Tour, natürlich mit Kreuzigungsszene: 
Mit dieser Inszenierung hatte die 47-Jährige für einen Sturm der Entrüstung gesorgt. Die Staatsanwaltschaft Düsseldorf hatte angekündigt, den Auftritt genau beobachten zu wollen. Die Welt online, 22. August 2006 

Gruss aus dem Jenseits
(Der Spiegel, Nr.47, 21.11.2005)

Vor fast 30 Jahren starb in Bayern eine junge Frau nach einer Teufelsaustreibung. Sektierer verehren sie bis heute, nun greifen zwei Filme den legendären Fall auf. 

"Bis heute schlägt das Drama mit der mittelalterlichen Aura Menschen in aller Welt in seinen Bann. Bücher wurden geschrieben, Michel-Fans pilgern zuhauf an die vermeintliche Stätte des Kampfes zwischen Gott und Satan," heisst es in dem Artikel.

"In den nächsten Wochen dürfte der fromme Kult neue Nahrung bekommen. Denn der tödliche Exorzismus dient als Vorlage für gleich zwei Filme, die nun in die Kinos kommen. In dieser Woche läuft der Psycho-Schocker "Der Exorzismus von Emily Rose" aus Hollywood an, im März folgt das sensible Familiendrama "Requiem" des deutschen Regisseurs Hans Christian Schmid ("Crazy", "Lichter"). Der Stoff taugt gut für beide Varianten: Anfang der siebziger Jahre kamen seltsame Gerüchte über Annelieses Krankheit in Umlauf. Die Studentin könne keine Heiligenbilder mehr ansehen, Bilder von Jesus würde sie sofort zerstören. Sie könne in der Kirche die Knie nicht beugen und habe panische Furcht vor Weihwasser. Betsüchtige Mitbürger der Familie deuteten all das als Zeichen , dass hier Luzifer Besitz ergriffen haben müsse von der jungen Seele."

"Der US-Horrorfilm "Der Exorzismus von Emily Rose" , der allein in den USA rund 75 Millionen Dollar eingespielt hat und damit zu den erfolgreichsten Produktionen der vergangenen Monate zählt, verlegt die Ereignisse des Jahres 1976 ins Amerika von heute." Dabei lässt "Emily Rose" - Autor und -Regisseur Scott Derrickson den Dämonen jedoch freien Lauf. Gerade diese These zieht die Kinobesucher in den USA in Bann." 

 

 

Südostasien
Krieg aus dem Schatten  

Buddhistische Mönche werden ermordet, christliche Schulkinder enthauptet, Andersdenkende zu Tode gebombt – das friedliche Zusammenleben der Religionen zwischen Bangkok und Jakarta ist bedroht. Politiker und Militärs nutzen das Feuer des Islam für den Ausbau ihrer Macht. (Der Spiegel Nr.47/2005)

"The coming trend of negative social psychology will be characterized primarily by polarization between and among various perceived groups, whether political, ideological, religious, geographical, racial or economic. The result will be a net trend toward anger, fear, intolerance, disagreement and exclusion, as opposed to the bull market years, whose net trend has been toward benevolence, confidence, tolerance, agreement and inclusion. Such a sentiment change typically brings conflict in many forms, and evidence of it will be visible in all types of social organizations..." Read more

 

Peace & War

“Surely,” says the supporter of the conventional view, “if war broke out, that would affect social mood and the stock market.” Such a comment would be, and is, an assumption. It is unsupported by argument or history. As to argument, many people assume that war is a dangerous enterprise that would cause concerned investors to sell. Many historians, on the other hand, argue that war is good for the economy, which by conventional logic would make it good for the stock market. As this reasoning is contradictory, so is the historical record. The Revolutionary War took place entirely during a falling stock market in England. The Civil War took place entirely during a rising stock market in the U.S. World War I saw the stock market rise in the first half and fall in the second half. World War II saw the opposite, as the stock market fell in the first half and rose in the second. During the Vietnam War, it went up, down, up, down and up, finishing about unchanged. In sum, there is no data to support the conventional view, and all the data taken together contradict it.

 

Socionomics, in contrast, points out a consistent correlation with a consistent rationale. Because social mood governs the character of social activity, a persistently rising stock market, reflecting feelings of increasing goodwill and social harmony, should consistently produce peace, and a persistently falling stock market, reflecting feelings of increasing ill will and social conflict, should consistently produce war. Figure 3 bears out this expectation. Long rises in the stock market unerringly result in climates of peace, while sharp declines result in major wars. Read more

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The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior
And The New Science of Socionomics
by Robert R.Prechter, 1999 

 

 

The Science of History and Social Prediction Best-selling author Robert Prechter’s revolutionary two-book set, Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction spells out a historical correlation between patterned shifts in social mood and their most sensitive register, the stock market.It also presents engaging essays -- representing over 20 years worth of research -- correlating social mood trends to music, sports, corporate culture, peace, war and macroeconomic trends. 

More about Socionomics